The entertainment continues on tonight’s pub run.
Not many people coming home from the pub on a Monday, mind.
Hello Polar low at +288

The entertainment continues on tonight’s pub run.
Not many people coming home from the pub on a Monday, mind.
Hello Polar low at +288

Not that again….

A polar low is a mesoscale feature and wouldn’t show up on the charts until hours or perhaps a day ahead.

Once again the 18z shows how the pieces have to fall just right to get really cold air over us. This run the block sits too far west and allows low pressure to develop to our west and put us into the mild air again - although only after a lot of snow in places.

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Seems like a climate change special to me. That is when we are not blasted by the Atlantic onslaught in normal mid Maunder cycle years.  Now - being in the more blocked Maunder Minimum years, we are witnessing and being modelled a see-saw oscillation between brassy periods and balmy periods: One moment snow cold and the next beach bathing territory: And I am not joking, as last Sunday, the sun shone on the north facing shores of Holkham in North Norfolk, and kids were paddling in the sea and building sand castles - seemingly oblivious of the fact it was the 14th of November (but it was 16 degrees)! I cannot imagine doing that back in the 1960s, when I was their age.

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Its been an astonishingly mild period and it will be a massive shock to the system (and gas supply) if this comes off

 

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The northerly now being modelled as an easterly this morning.
Wrong thread to chat about ‘climate change’ but the monthly CET will take a bashing next week one way or another.

Looks like some warmer 850’s this morning for the South with the low too far west. Could be a wet rather than cold spell coming up

Jam tomorrow but never jam today ...

Wx summaries - some really cold air in the far NE in week 2, even to the extent of being below average for time of year, but otherwise seasonally cold for most of Europe with the current above-norm temps in week 1 being displaced in week 2. Pptn pattern continues to change  daily; week 1 dry for Europe exc the far N (incl N Scotland); week 2 wet for all the W coasts of Europe plus a band stretching across the Baltic and onwards (& some in the Balkans too)

Jet - quite strong over N UK weakening by Tue 23rd then an irregular set of loops with the S affected Sat 27th (from SW) and the N by  a different loop Mon 29th (from NW) trasforming into a W-ly  jet across England

GFS op - zonal mostly SW-lies to start with but these pump up HP 1030mb S England Sat 20th before a swift retrogression allows in N-lies, weak at first with main plunge over Norway while HP still close to Ireland. Then Thu 25th shallow low runs down the W coast of UK, deepening Sat 27th 985mb off NW Spain and bringing in strong E/NE-lies. This LP moves back to S England 995mb Mon 29th, fills completely and back to the SW-lies 2 days later. It will feel cold after recent weather, but no direct Arctic feed at any stage.

GEFS - mild or v. mild to Sun 21st, then a sharp drop with mean down to 2-4C below norm for the forecast period (Scotland gets a brief respite around Wed 24th); quite good agreement for 3 or 4 days but a wide scatter after that (by Mon 29th from just above norm to 10C below). Not much rain exc in far NW until Fri 26th then plenty.

ECM - matches GFS to Thu 25th but the LP then develops as major feature just W of Scotland 985mb with vigorous and cold N-lies out in the Atlantic and most of UK picking up returning polar maritime air from the S on Fri 26th

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The northerly now being modelled as an easterly this morning.
Wrong thread to chat about ‘climate change’ but the monthly CET will take a bashing next week one way or another.

The most you can say at this stage is the monthly CET may be taking a bashing next week. Don't feed people who may find this thread through search engines with rubbish. 

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The most you can say at this stage is the monthly CET may be taking a bashing next week. Don't feed people who may find this thread through search engines with rubbish. 

Yes I think the CET zone may not be all that cold if the pattern sets up more like this morning's runs than last night's. But a lot of time left for things to change. Cold air won't be far away, it just depends whether it finds a way to get here.

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Yes I think the CET zone may not be all that cold if the pattern sets up more like this morning's runs than last night's. But a lot of time left for things to change. Cold air won't be far away, it just depends whether it finds a way to get here.

Yes; anything other than a direct path to the British Isles brings significant surface layer modification. Good for higher ground further north thanks to the associated moisture but not conducive to properly cold conditions for the SE quarter of England.

At least we haven’t seen, so far, that typical adjustment eastwards of the pattern; more an oscillation east or west of us.

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As others have said - we are wise to know the detail isnt there yet. But end of this month consistently now developing some sort of cold feature. Different on each run, but running of the theme HP to the north west, LP to our Sout / South west. Variations of that pattern.

The season temperatures seem like theyre going to be resetting this weekend. Good bye double digit temps for a while

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As others have said - we are wise to know the detail isnt there yet. But end of this month consistently now developing some sort of cold feature. Different on each run, but running of the theme HP to the north west, LP to our Sout / South west. Variations of that pattern.

The season temperatures seem like theyre going to be resetting this weekend. Good bye double digit temps for a while

Exactly my thinking. The usual eastward adjustment is a distinct possibility and the common evolution so I’m puzzled as to why I’ve been berated for suggesting a reduction in November’s CET. Even if the low ends up over us or fails to materialise entirely, we are almost certain for single digital maxima this time next week for many if not all. 

Exactly my thinking. The usual eastward adjustment is a distinct possibility and the common evolution so I’m puzzled as to why I’ve been berated for suggesting a reduction in November’s CET. Even if the low ends up over us or fails to materialise entirely, we are almost certain for single digital maxima this time next week for many if not all. 

It's the way you categorically state: "the monthly CET will take a bashing next week one way or another."

I'm happy to delete your account if you would like.

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The GFS 06z look like setting up with the block just too far west again, and also a critical few hundred miles further north, keeping much of the country out of the direct Arctic flow. A trend or just another variation on a theme?  More runs needed…

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Indeed and as a result it ends up being quite mild in the south later next week. Obviously this may be very wrong.

 

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Certainly the first winter interest of the season coming up, even if nothing major actually happens. Run after run shows a big Greenland High setting up; the uncertainty is really how far East this extends and whether there's still space for lows to our SW to bring up warm air from Southern Europe. But the GH is there, and assuming it sits around for at least a couple of weeks I would be surprised if there's not at least one proper cold plunge as a result.  

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The GFS 06z look like setting up with the block just too far west again, and also a critical few hundred miles further north, keeping much of the country out of the direct Arctic flow. A trend or just another variation on a theme?  More runs needed…

The pattern reminds me a lot of 2010 when the block was just a little too far to the west, meaning the south got the returning milder muck while the north froze. (Obviously not suggesting the depth of cold on offer anywhere is 2010-esque at this stage!)

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Gefs06z suite has quite a fair number of runs sub -5°c at 850hpa from around the 26th..(looking at E.Midlands)

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With the synoptic pattern we are seeing in the models for latter Nov, its only a matter of time before we see something rather stella, even if its fleeting for a run or two.  The positioning of the systems on the last few runs I dont think we have seen the full potential being shown.  There are some -10*c GEFs runs being presented.  But so far the Operational seems to be a bit tame.  

 

Only reason i point this out, is we are entering the season where we can build up and deflate every 4 hrs for 5 months.  Let the fun begin

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Only reason i point this out, is we are entering the season where we can build up and deflate every 4 hrs for 5 months.  Let the fun begin

 

 

I say this every year, but... Brian, bring back the Winter Optimism Index!!

 

 

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