Nice set of charts from GFS op not overly cold but will feel seasonal at least - could be a few wintry showers about on prone coasts

The ECM 12z evolves similarly to GFS with the high retrogressing and merging with a shot of WAA to build an upper and surface high over Greenland by T+216.   But very little westwards adjustment needed before the British Isles would end up on the wrong side of the trough.

 

 

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Cracking ECM has to be said 

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Cracking ECM has to be said 

 

thats got Hail and sleet written all over it for my neck of the woods 

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I say this every year, but... Brian, bring back the Winter Optimism Index!!

I don’t think you’ll be seeing that this year. 

I don’t think you’ll be seeing that this year. 

At this rate we won't be seeing much more of you on this forum either!

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Frosts and wintry showers peppered around windward coasts and mountains exposed to the NNW'ly winds will certainly be a shock to the system after the mild and benign autumn so far. Its not a done deal by any stretch yet. As we saw earlier today a west based negative NAO could easily accommodate a cheeky trough just to our west keeping the very mild theme going. :)

 

 

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At this rate we won't be seeing much more of you on this forum either!

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We're all only ever one click away from deletion. 

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Looks like the second northerly is adjusting more eastwards on the 12z again with fairly cold air moving in.

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Looks like the second northerly is adjusting more eastwards on the 12z again with fairly cold air moving in.

You mean the 18z, yes I can’t wait for some much colder air next week. 

You mean the 18z, yes I can’t wait for some much colder air next week. 

Which charts are you looking at exactly? All I see is temperatures around or just below normal for much of next week?

The 18z collapses the block with questionable rapidity, mostly because it comes up with a very different evolution across the US, leading to the energy going back into a renewed thrust in the northern arm of the jet.  Either it’s picked up something or the evolution from Day 10 onwards is for the bin.

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Which charts are you looking at exactly? All I see is temperatures around or just below normal for much of next week?

The 18z collapses the block with questionable rapidity, mostly because it comes up with a very different evolution across the US, leading to the energy going back into a renewed thrust in the northern arm of the jet.  Either it’s picked up something or the evolution from Day 10 onwards is for the bin.

Yes just below normal Peter, but colder than of late, none the less. 

Yes just below normal Peter, but colder than of late, none the less. 

 

OK, just terminology then. I’d have said ‘cooler’ rather than ‘colder’, simply because it won’t really get ‘cold’ next week.

A rather odd latter stages of the 18z: the block collapses and we end with a surface high pressure near Biscay and a vast expanse of nothing much across the Atlantic.

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You mean the 18z, yes I can’t wait for some much colder air next week. 

Yes sorry I mean the 18z of course, and yes I also can't wait for the colder fresher air!

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Yes just below normal Peter, but colder than of late, none the less. 

Looks to be a bit more than 'just below normal' to me, if you look at the forecast 2m max temperatures on the 18z it was showing max temperatures only around 2c by Thursday, Friday, Saturday next week.

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My nightly glance at the two ensemble graphs has perked me up.
Winter mode soon returning and the forum will become busier again with ups and downs of the roller-coaster.
End of November being cooler has been trending up and down and looks more down tonight, hopefully the trend continues into the hi-res over the coming days.

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GFS, GEM and ECM all looking flaky if it's winter you're looking for this morning. Then some wonder why I get annoyed when posts state as fact things such as "the CET will take a bashing next week". I know the pantomime season has arrived but most posters have been here years and should know that those "gold standard" winter synoptics are always unlikely to materialise in the UK. 

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I think ‘more seasonal’ in the outlook would be appropriate at the very least given the continuing trend for a mean flow from a northerly quarter from Sunday. The GFS mean hovers around the -3 850 mark from the 25th so not exceptional on that one isolated parameter but what will feel different is a clear, dry Arctic airmass and some decent frosts. Wintry ppn always a possibility.
The GFS OP is skewed to the milder side this morning, with some impressive runs in the rest of the mob.

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I think ‘more seasonal’ in the outlook would be appropriate at the very least given the continuing trend for a mean flow from a northerly quarter from Sunday. The GFS mean hovers around the -3 850 mark from the 25th so not exceptional on that one isolated parameter but what will feel different is a clear, dry Arctic airmass and some decent frosts. Wintry ppn always a possibility.
The GFS OP is skewed to the milder side this morning, with some impressive runs in the rest of the mob.

That’s a nice summary Neil. 

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