Met 144 chart looking well set:

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In some respects the projected pattern reminds me of January this year. Pretty sure during that month we had various teases in the mid range section of the model runs with HP building over or towards Greenland which nearer the time tended to end as Atlantic ridging and chilly air rather than out and out cold (with the exception of Scotland). We then finally managed HP build over Greenland, which typically set up too far West and large areas stayed milder, with cold air again restricted to Scotland and possibly Northern England. 

Not saying it'll happen like that again but just struck me as similar. In the meantime GFS shows a fairly potent second cold shot, although how long lasting is debateable. HP seems to be sinking to me, suggesting may not be a stable pattern although the Atlantic isn't exactly rampant at T189 ish so a quick return to mild seems unlikely.

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850's not to be sniffed at:

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Definitely a trend for later next week:

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I guess this has been consistent enough now to take seriously.

I will say though that the air is only marginally cold enough for snow (outside N Scotland) so coasts are likely to see rain showers. Ofc any kind of 'feature' moving into cold air could give alot of snow at short notice to some parts.

 

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Quite a snowy run that for northwest and central parts.

Im with your comment even in favourable conditions Q.... we will see rain, and have to celebrate the snow with people who saw it.

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Nice looking run for end of November beginning of Dec. Could be some surprise snowfalls depending on when precipitation arrives. Most would see a wintry mix in this setup

Decent commentary at the moment. 'Rather cold to cold' is the outlook from Sunday with a less cold few days early next week.

I wouldn't be surprised to see snowfall in quite a few areas given the current projections but as others have said you have to temper the short days with a time when ssts are still relatively high so coasts and lowland UK mostly rain as it stands. Having said that get a -10 at 850 blast in and the difference between air mass and sea temperatures will create some fun and games.

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Decent commentary at the moment. 'Rather cold to cold' is the outlook from Sunday with a less cold few days early next week.

I wouldn't be surprised to see snowfall in quite a few areas given the current projections but as others have said you have to temper the short days with a time when ssts are still relatively high so coasts and lowland UK mostly rain as it stands. Having said that get a -10 at 850 blast in and the difference between air mass and sea temperatures will create some fun and games.

Indeed, nighttime over Scotland looks very interesting. Would expect an amber snow warning.

But I'm less sure about my position in N england.

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Indeed, nighttime over Scotland looks very interesting. Would expect an amber snow warning.

But I'm less sure about my position in N england.

Not the worst place to be though! Interesting times ahead 👍❄️

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Sea surface temperatures will moderate enough at the very surface even with 1-2 days of chill.

If the flow is slack enough, the precipitation is heavy enough and the freezing level is dragged down enough, most will see falling snow at -8 upper temperature.

If we can see snow falling in early May in the middle of the day with such uppers (which I did this year), we can see it in late Nov.

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Sea surface temperatures will moderate enough at the very surface even with 1-2 days of chill.

If the flow is slack enough, the precipitation is heavy enough and the freezing level is dragged down enough, most will see falling snow at -8 upper temperature.

Could get hail & thunder instead, particularly on windward coasts!

If anyone is curious the t850hPa GEFS watch for this location is now up to 27 ensemble members dipping to or below -10°C on the 12z set. Seasonal at very least.

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ECM 12z op evolves to this at T+192:

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ECM looking good 

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If anyone is curious the t850hPa GEFS watch for this location is now up to 27 ensemble members dipping to or below -10°C on the 12z set. Seasonal at very least.

Always curious about the extremities of this nation 😉

A skeg of the 12Z set and the way ECM is shaping up this evening and one can conclude momentum for a pretty decent early winter spell is gathering pace.

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12z GEFS 

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ECM lining up another shot ?

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Always curious about the extremities of this nation 😉

A skeg of the 12Z set and the way ECM is shaping up this evening and one can conclude momentum for a pretty decent early winter spell is gathering pace.

I like being an extremity  Definitely worth keeping an eye on things for later next week, the potential is there for something wintry in places.

On the subject of extremes and extremities it looks like we may reach 16°C 17°C up here over the next couple of days. 

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Looking at the 12z ensembles for North Yorkshire, 1 or 2 of the runs are touching nearly -15c 850s. Obviously very unlikely but that would be extreme for November, just to go sub -5c 850s is fairly rare in November.

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