The trend from what I can see  from this afternoons OP runs is less of a Greenland high and more in the way of Atlantic ridge due to more energy than previously modeled moving across Greenland. Of course this could be a modelling error or perhaps a trend that will see the ridge becoming less amplified in future runs. 

The way things stand at present it looks like quite a potent  cold snap is on the way from the middle and latter part of next week with 850's dropping to  between  -6c to -10c and a very good chance for many to see some white stuff wherever precipitation occurs. We are still talking a week plus away so nothing set in stone for at least another few days.

The trend from what I can see  from this afternoons OP runs is less of a Greenland high and more in the way of Atlantic ridge due to more energy than previously modeled moving across Greenland. Of course this could be a modelling error or perhaps a trend that will see the ridge becoming less amplified in future runs. 

The way things stand at present it looks like quite a potent  cold snap is on the way from the middle and latter part of next week with 850's dropping to  between  -6c to -10c and a very good chance for many to see some white stuff wherever precipitation occurs. We are still talking a week plus away so nothing set in stone for at least another few days.

Last night’s GFS 18z picked up on that trend, which in that run was because it didn’t develop and then stall the LP system over the eastern US and therefore the WAA which helped blow up the block over Greenland didn’t happen.  Of course there’s the usual issue of the high pressure belt to the south impeding any attempt to put energy into the southern arm of the jet stream, which means the energy is going over the top toward the Pole and then dropping south towards Scandi.  Whilst the pattern remains amplified the risk of pressure on the ridge is reasonably low, I’d have thought. 

As you say, a long way to go in modeling terms and certainly the short wave pattern will chop and change. The question is whether short wave changes can disturb the broader pattern; something we’ve seen happen.

---

The trend continues and has been building for a few days now. Remarkably the word cold can now be used freely without reprimand yet a mere 24 hrs ago it was a swear word. I for one hope the trend continues, it sure beats a Euroslug or continuous zonality 😄

The end of November looks not unlike late November 2010 which became very snowy here by 25th i.e. the famous December cold spell started last week of November with over a foot of snow lying before the end of the month

---

ECM ensemble mean SLP/500hPa chart for T+192

 

Plus the spread chart, showing the greatest uncertainty lies over a large swathe of eastern Arctic Canada and down through Greenland and into Iceland.  Over the following 48 hours that area of uncertainty migrates east to cover the entire North Atlantic, through the British Isles and down into the Med.

---

The end of November looks not unlike late November 2010 which became very snowy here by 25th i.e. the famous December cold spell started last week of November with over a foot of snow lying before the end of the month

I was thinking that some of the charts look very similar to 2010. We can but dream. 

---

The trend continues and has been building for a few days now. Remarkably the word cold can now be used freely without reprimand yet a mere 24 hrs ago it was a swear word. I for one hope the trend continues, it sure beats a Euroslug or continuous zonality 😄

No that is simply not the case. Stop digging.

---

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Royal Tunbridge Wells | Weather.us

ECM Op for down here suggesting not far from ice days by the end of the run, which would be a bit chilly

Generally all signals pointing towards chilly or cold weather although a lot will depend on how far North the HP sets up, although with the Atlantic looking quiet not looking like a toppler happily with plenty of opportunity for reloads

 

---

 

I was thinking that some of the charts look very similar to 2010. We can but dream. 

My memory of November 2010 prior to the onset of the freeze was that it was generally a fairly quiet month. Never particularly cold until late in the month and fairly dry. Certainly much drier here than the preceding November was.

What I recall of the model output in the lead-up to the freeze was that the MetO updates had been signalling for a good week or so about the possibility of the major cold spell for some time before the operational model runs that we can access here began to pick up on it. Before the freeze the previous winter, it was the other way round with the model output picking up on the start of the build-up to the freeze for some time before the MetO updates first began to mention it.

---

 

My memory of November 2010 prior to the onset of the freeze was that it was generally a fairly quiet month. Never particularly cold until late in the month and fairly dry. Certainly much drier here than the preceding November was.

What I recall of the model output in the lead-up to the freeze was that the MetO updates had been signalling for a good week or so about the possibility of the major cold spell for some time before the operational model runs that we can access here began to pick up on it. Before the freeze the previous winter, it was the other way round with the model output picking up on the start of the build-up to the freeze for some time before the MetO updates first began to mention it.

Still remember driving home in total white out conditions on that late friday afternoon in November 2010. Came out of the blue and didn't stop. Surreal period of weather. 

---

 

My memory of November 2010 prior to the onset of the freeze was that it was generally a fairly quiet month. Never particularly cold until late in the month and fairly dry. Certainly much drier here than the preceding November was.

What I recall of the model output in the lead-up to the freeze was that the MetO updates had been signalling for a good week or so about the possibility of the major cold spell for some time before the operational model runs that we can access here began to pick up on it. Before the freeze the previous winter, it was the other way round with the model output picking up on the start of the build-up to the freeze for some time before the MetO updates first began to mention it.

That’s along the lines of my recollection too; Met office very bullish on the potential for a severe cold spell at least a couple of weeks before November ended. At the same time the models weren’t sniffing anything. 

The less said about November 2009 the better. Non stop heavy rain down here for what felt like the whole month. 

The end of November looks not unlike late November 2010 which became very snowy here by 25th i.e. the famous December cold spell started last week of November with over a foot of snow lying before the end of the month

Exactly what I was thinking!

---

Completely different set up to 2010. 2010 had the blocking anchored initially towards Scandi and then migrated towards Greenland. That's how some of the real classic winters shape up.

This is different, it comes courtesy of an amplified wave which crosses the Pacific and breaks in the Atlantic. 

Notice how the HP is losing latitude as the time gets nearer? In the nearer timeframes the GFS is now showing it as pretty much mid latitude territory-

If this trend continues, things can go south very quickly.

On another note, we have 0 strat support for longevity of any wintry pattern. Once strat and trop connect (which could happen any time) we're staring down the barrel of a +NAO.

---

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_228_1.png
Snapshot of the op but next Saturday could be lively!

 

ECM ramps up the low as well - not a nice day for walking and the first proper leaf fall!

Northerly on the way with a corresponding big drop in temperature.

GFS mean (850's) - 180hrs

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=168&code=31&mode=1&carte=0

500's mean - 180 hrs

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=168&code=31&mode=0&carte=0

Snow on the way for parts of the north and Scotland.

---

Wx summary; week 1 sees most of Europe slightly above average temps but colder air is rolling across the N - week 2 shows some of this working into C Europe as well. Patches outside Scandi  with isotherm below 0C include Alps, Pyrenees and Scoyland, and some exceptionally cold weather in N Norway. PPtn in far N and W Med week 1 shifts to  a broad band down the W side of Europe and through the Med generally

Jet - running N of UK, sometimes as a loop, to Wed 24th, then switching to a loop S of the UK through to Sat 4th, albeit sometimes fractured

GFS op - HP still covering S of UK with W/SW-lies to Sat 20th, moving a little W to allow a first N-ly flow Sun 21st. The HP recovers briefly then retreats allowing stronger N-lies through to Sat 4th. notably v. cold under LP Sat 27th 955mb E Scotland with hurricane force for W Scotland. Although that fills if leaves small Lp centres embedded in the generally N'ly outlook e.g. 985mb N Ireland Thu 4th, moving to N Sea 975mb.

GEFS - temp drops off a cliff Sun 21st to below norm then a further drop Thu 25th to about 6C below norm (and staying there in the S - the N is colder at first but eases up a little later on) with quite good agreement between all runs  until Wed 1st after which most runs still continue cold. PPtn begins in earnest Thu 25th, but less than shown yesterday. Significant but not overwhelming snow row figures everywhere - even Brighton manages one '10'.

ECM - similar to GFS but places that LP on Sat 27th further E 965 mb N Sea as part of a trough stretching back to Norway, and the strongest winds down the E coast- watch out for high tides on Sun 28th!

---

It’s encouraging to see those EC anomaly clusters from a week ago for wk48 showing a mid latitude Atlantic high and troughing in W Europe look like being close to the mark. The outlook remains a trend to colder unsettled conditions towards the end of Nov.
The EC mean to 240hrs is especially impressive, as is the GFS ENS mean this morning. A repeat of 2010? Unlikely. A seasonal cold outlook with the threat of wintry ppn? Most likely.

---

For me, one thing which the current output for next week (and possibly beyond) proves is just how quickly in this country a pattern which has been seemingly locked in for a while can change and sometimes without a great deal of warning beforehand. The change hasn't yet happened of course, but barring some unbelievably sudden volte face now, it looks as though temperatures will take something of a dive next week compared to presently and indeed for much of the autumn.

The one thing I learned very quickly about the models when I first began following them on a regular basis way back in 2005 was that sometimes, they can be just as unpredicatable as the weather itself often is in this country. I mentioned late 2009 recently. As I said then, if someone had said to me during the very wet and mild November that year that a month or so later, the coldest spell of weather in around 30 years would be coming, I doubt I would have believed them.

---

I think those living along the East Coast may need to be concerned about Spring tidal surges if the latest round of outputs are to go by on. Here's hoping that it ends up being less of a worry come the moment.

---

I think those living along the East Coast may need to be concerned about Spring tidal surges if the latest round of outputs are to go by on. Here's hoping that it ends up being less of a worry come the moment.

for the east coast I can imagine they will hope it retains the NW element, a straight Northerly or NNE wi. Of that strength with a high tide would spell disaster