Growing support for a colder spell 

ECM arrows a significant cold shot from the north at us in deep FI.  The Arctic looks surprisingly cold early on.  Some sort of colder shot is likely in the last 10 days of the month - though I imagine things will get downgraded from herein.

at the moment it is going the other way becoming a little colder with each run. Could be a slow creeper that gives our early taste of winter

Anything is possible.  It would be interesting to see a very cold plunge swiping us with a direct hit, and sustained by repeated mid Atlantic blocking, purely as an academic exercise, just  to see the effect of +14c sea temperatures  mixing it with -10c upper air.  A temperature gradient of 24 c would result in some awesome convection.

It'd be interesting to see what ECM did from T240 - usual form horse would be for the HP to topple over the UK cutting the feed off and leading to a couple of cold days before milder air returns but I guess at least possible for HP to rebuild with pressure remaining relatively high towards Greenland. The LP that pushes through the HP at the Southern Tip of Greenland looks to be dying off and no sign of further LP development so might be a more positive outcome in the extremely unlikely event it verified as shown. The LP over the US/Canada also seems reasonably aligned to pump warm air up West of Greenland, aiding HP development/stability hopefully.

GFS ens do show why the old 'more runs are needed' chestnut remains true, with some support for a colder evolution but equally a lot of runs which would bring milder weather and plenty of scatter in FI.

The ECM ens are rather more interesting (IMBY anyway, not looked for elsewhere) with fairly unusual clustering under the 0c 850 line in deep FI:-

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Royal Tunbridge Wells | Weather.us

All in all some encouraging signs for something interesting, albeit usual caveat about FI applies and will need to see the pattern marching towards T0. Being even more pessimistic worth remembering that seas are warmer in late Nov than further in to winter and you need to get deep enough cold to overcome that. Away from the North and high ground 850s look cold but maybe not *that cold*. Of course, if it is cold enough you can get a lot of convective snow showers and even if it's not cold enough for everyone favoured spots could have fun, if we get to that point and tomorrow's runs don't wipe it all away.

Was thinking exactly the same earlier.  It's the way the cold air is slowly forcing south westwards into the high pressure.  I think this type of scenario tends to be the precursor to a more sustained spell of cold as opposed to the one where the tropical high gets swept away at speed.  Of course all of the usual caveats of model watching apply!

Yes it is all FI stuff but good to see some interesting charts. Anything that gets us out of a year of high pressure gloom would be good !

The thing to be wary of is that there have been several examples of late November cold snaps in the last 40 years or so and whilst it is tempting to mention the 2009 mantra it may mean little for the month following. That said it could well be a front loaded winter.

ECM has a direct hit at T240 which is an impressive chart

La Niña years are good for sustained Arctic blasts, and sub -10 at 850 Hpa and high SST’s  will deliver the potential for thunder snow cold fronts...It’s more than just possible this time - its potential...

Down here they're good for blue skies and close to average afternoon temperatures.   A crisp day as the English say and the continentals smirk.

Summary temps much like yesterday with cold air spreading from the NE esp into Scandinavia but also (less so) in =to C Europe. PPt pattern still uncertain, N Atlantic & W Med this week, but in addition to W coasts next week, a band stretching up to E Baltic (new)

GFS op - zonal flow this week, mainly HP to start and finish, some LP influence from N midweek; then HP retrogresses to mid-Atlantic with weak N-lies Mon 22nd and a reload with much stronger N/NE-lies Fri 26th with LP 985mb in Biscay by Sat 27th. It doesn't last - major LP C Atlantic Wed 1st pushing troughs and S-ly wind ahead of it.

GEFS - mild or v. mild to Sun 21st then sharp drop with mean staying 3 or 4C  below norm throughout; op & control colder still esp around Mon 29th. Small amounts of rain in week 2, also some in far NW week 1 (likely snow in the Highlands at any time)

ECM - like GFS though main thrust of N-lies is over Scandinavia, the UK is on the fringe

I'd be interested to know if either of the Dec 2009/Jan 2010 or the late Nov/Dec 2010 freezes occured during a La Nina event?

Second half of 2010 was La Nina territory if I recall correctly. 

We are also at a similar point in the solar cycle, when northern blocking is more likely.

It just shows how almost every piece of the jigsaw puzzle has to fall correctly: high pressure in mid-Atlantic, block over Iceland/Greenland, jet stream looping up over the block and diving south into Norway & south into mainland Europe.

I have to say that the 06z suite is one of the most interesting and exciting I have seen for a long time. The cold theme is present in some form or another on most of them:

These two are amazing

P14: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP14EU06_264_2.png

P19: www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP19EU06_300_2.png

Yes these are FI charts, but this average here  suggest a mid Atlantic ridge is becoming a favoured option.

Very interesting and at least so far this month had been mild, dry and lot of sunshine compare to summer months. also helping to keep the heating down very low this month.  I prefer mild, dry and sunny to pass the winter long dark times than cold for nothing type weather that use lot of heating.  If cold coming I rather have it subzero temps, snow and hard frost at nights otherwise, 10-12C day and night to pass on the time.  1 month left for shortage day and then drawing out again soon.

P19 is very similar to the Operational for 27/28 Nov