I see the models continuing with relative accuracy as they have all year with above average temperatures

It would be foolish to expect a cold winter or cold december based on current run rate and climate temperatures in the UK for 2021 so far

2021 YTD is running......

+0.6 vs 1960-1991

+0.2 vs 1981-2010

-0.14 vs 1991-2020

Seen as 2021 is running close to the average for 91-20 then we should expect the final 2 months to run similar to the Nov and Dec average for this period

This would potentially mean Nov around 7.4 and Dec around 5 

That looks more than possible based on current 16 day forecast for Nov and LR models for December

You need to have some dose of reality when looking at the coming months rather than hoping. Hoping is where all the fun is though lol

Point taken. Saying that though, if someone had told me during the mild washout November of 2009 that a month or so later, we would be at the start of a major month-long freeze, I doubt I would have taken them seriously.

During November 2009, we seemed as far away from a freeze as we could have been, from what I recall of the daily model output there was at the time. There may have been some distant background indications of big changes as we went into December, but they were not obvious in the output that we had access to at the time from what I remember of it.

 

Point taken. Saying that though, if someone had told me during the mild washout November of 2009 that a month or so later, we would be at the start of a major month-long freeze, I doubt I would have taken them seriously.

During November 2009, we seemed as far away from a freeze as we could have been, from what I recall of the daily model output there was at the time. There may have been some distant background indications of big changes as we went into December, but they were not obvious in the output that we had access to at the time from what I remember of it.

Yeah, strange. It's almost as if he's never heard of anomalies or outliers.

 

Yeah, strange. It's almost as if he's never heard of anomalies or outliers.

 

I agree with both above posts. We have had outliers and anomalies this year already. April And May a good case and that’s the main reason we sit on par with 91-20 average as the rest has been above average notably 

Agree that I also would not have predicted the cold we experienced in 09 & 10 following the autumn but those anomalies are once in a lifetime occurrence typically.

like April and May combo was the coldest for 80 odd years. They happen but they are infrequent

what I can see in the output we have available short term and long term I don’t see outliers yet. It might happen but might is I think at this stage the best it can be described 

The cold referred to in 09 & 10 is very recent history in the scene of evolution so I suppose there’s less probability it could happen again within 10-12 years etc. GW does seem to increase severe events but even that is more Hope than probability?

We are at -0.14 vs 91-20 precisely because the cold April popped up out of nowhere though.

Not quite sure what your point is here? It's just another month that makes up the annual anomaly, sounds as though you are suggesting it shouldn't be counted in the data? As for it popping out of nowhere, I'm also confused by that, the same could be said for any anomalously cold or warm month.

Not strictly model output but well worth taking a look at Atlantic SSTs. I can't recall seeing something this extreme before. 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png

Not strictly model output but well worth taking a look at Atlantic SSTs. I can't recall seeing something this extreme before. 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png

 

If that's correct then the NE Pacific has cooled significantly...which might make some of the long range models, that place a great big HP anomaly there for the winter period, look rather foolish.

Shockingly high Atlantic temperatures Brian, except for a tiny spot off Shetland! Hudson Bay and the arctic regions seem to be especially warm, and therefore sea ice formation will be very late this year. The loss of the albido effect on keeping temperatures down may prove significant and certainly will cumulatively in the years ahead. This particular winter - we may see more blocking, so this would lead to more widespread early snow cover on land (which cools down fast), which might serve to counteract the loss of albido effect from the warm oceans. My Guess is that Hudson Bay will not freeze until January - leaving a lot of starving polar bears on its shores, unable to reach the seal hunting grounds. 

GFS now trending towards a new block and an eventual cold plunge by the 20th - but still too warm for snow anywhere south of the Scottish highlands. Good year for alpine snow though - as the polar maritime fronts penetrate into Europe.

Wow - GFS Op run this morning is showing a very blocked pattern - with 2 notable cold plunges, the second cold enough for the first wintry precipitation south of Scotland (as far down as Norfolk) - were it to verify. The only problem being - the runs are very different run by run, as if the models are struggling with these blocked scenarios, which they seem to do far more than the common flow of west to east Atlantic fare.

Wx summary temps like yesterday but the cold patch over the Alps increases too;   the march of cold weather from the NE resumes in week 2 (0C isotherm into Poland and over a fair amount of the Alps) while the UK cools (14C isotherm moves from N Ireland to N Spain). PPtn pattern changed again - currently N Atlantic , W Med and Baltic but in week 2 instead of  coastal Europe the front line mow fromm Baltic down to Italy though N Atlantic still gets its share

GFS op  starts out zonal to with HP to S (spoilt early this week by trailing front across England as shown on FAX) and LP to N switching to a pattern of N_S ridges of HP and N-ly plunges mainly down N Sea, just missing UK- Sun 14th and Sun 21st (v strong) with brief reversion tp W/SW- lies in between

GEFS mean stays mild this week slowly decreasing to below norm at end of period. Many runs but not opand control ignore the first plunge and mot so many the second one - a wide range of outcomes with the mild/cold runs grouped, not much in the middle. Even more chaotic for Scotland which may mis the worst of the N/NE plunges. Not much rain and that mostly later on and in the N. 

ECM similar but with a strong HP 1040mb Mon 15th between plunges

WX and GFS op don't match well

Before we get to the potential cold though, the ECM 00Z goes for a nasty Atlantic storm on Friday. Scotland and N. England would be especially hard hit with that, especially since many of the trees still have leaves after the mild autumn so far.

Only after that does it bring high pressure in properly, and then hint at it pulling down a N/NW'ly blast as it pulls out into the Altantic.

Shockingly high Atlantic temperatures Brian, except for a tiny spot off Shetland! Hudson Bay and the arctic regions seem to be especially warm, and therefore sea ice formation will be very late this year. The loss of the albido effect on keeping temperatures down may prove significant and certainly will cumulatively in the years ahead. This particular winter - we may see more blocking, so this would lead to more widespread early snow cover on land (which cools down fast), which might serve to counteract the loss of albido effect from the warm oceans. My Guess is that Hudson Bay will not freeze until January - leaving a lot of starving polar bears on its shores, unable to reach the seal hunting grounds. 

GFS now trending towards a new block and an eventual cold plunge by the 20th - but still too warm for snow anywhere south of the Scottish highlands. Good year for alpine snow though - as the polar maritime fronts penetrate into Europe.

Incorrect - arctic sea ice is around 30% up on last year

 

Not quite sure what your point is here? It's just another month that makes up the annual anomaly, sounds as though you are suggesting it shouldn't be counted in the data? As for it popping out of nowhere, I'm also confused by that, the same could be said for any anomalously cold or warm month.

My point is that no anomalously cold month can ever be discounted, no matter the run of warm anomalies that precede it.

An anomalously cold month could be regarded as "popping up out of nowhere" if the month is bookmarked by a run of warm months either side of it.

Not strictly model output but well worth taking a look at Atlantic SSTs. I can't recall seeing something this extreme before. 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png

 

I was at the coast last weekend and surprised to see the sea temperature still at 16C at Studland - due to the mild autumn no doubt.

That map is strange though if you look off the eastern seaboard of the USA - lots of small areas of very cold anomalies dotted among the very warm anomalies. What would cause that?

Before we get to the potential cold though, the ECM 00Z goes for a nasty Atlantic storm on Friday. Scotland and N. England would be especially hard hit with that, especially since many of the trees still have leaves after the mild autumn so far.

Only after that does it bring high pressure in properly, and then hint at it pulling down a N/NW'ly blast as it pulls out into the Altantic.

No worse, I think, than the one that passed through Fri/Sat just gone

 

Incorrect - arctic sea ice is around 30% up on last year

Up 30% on last year but still way below the normal extent for the time of year, especially on the Canadian and Scandinavian  sides. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Up 30% on 2020 doesn't really mean anything as last year was incredibly low. Those Hudson Bay temperatures do indeed look worrying for any ice formation there any time soon.

 

I was at the coast last weekend and surprised to see the sea temperature still at 16C at Studland - due to the mild autumn no doubt.

That map is strange though if you look off the eastern seaboard of the USA - lots of small areas of very cold anomalies dotted among the very warm anomalies. What would cause that?

I would guess it is to do with mixing.

 

My point is that no anomalously cold month can ever be discounted, no matter the run of warm anomalies that precede it.

An anomalously cold month could be regarded as "popping up out of nowhere" if the month is bookmarked by a run of warm months either side of it.

Yes but the May following was also much colder than average, and before that March was of course fairly warm but January was cold and February had a cold spell so not sure it came completely out of nowhere.

 

Up 30% on last year but still way below the normal extent for the time of year, especially on the Canadian and Scandinavian  sides. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Up 30% on 2020 doesn't really mean anything as last year was incredibly low. Those Hudson Bay temperatures do indeed look worrying for any ice formation there any time soon.

 

The highest sea ice extent since 2015 is reasonably significant but probably only on a short term basis. As you say, some parts of the Arctic have little or no ice yet. Longer term, ice thickness is more important than ice extent because the areas which are re-freezing this winter can quickly thaw if they are warmer again next year. So this might be seen as a 'blip' in the downward trend in ice extent. 

From what I've observed since spring, the Arctic was generally cooler this summer than in other recent years, but I would put that down to weather circulation patterns tending to 'bottle-up' the cooler air in the Artic region. Obviously this is a big generalisation and I have noticed that northern Canada has had a very mild autumn so far which of course is influencing the sea ice in that area. Svalbard on the other hand has been nearer average (which means cooler than recent years) which must be impacting ice extents to the east of Greenland. 

 

The highest sea ice extent since 2015 is reasonably significant but probably only on a short term basis. As you say, some parts of the Arctic have little or no ice yet. Longer term, ice thickness is more important than ice extent because the areas which are re-freezing this winter can quickly thaw if they are warmer again next year. So this might be seen as a 'blip' in the downward trend in ice extent. 

From what I've observed since spring, the Arctic was generally cooler this summer than in other recent years, but I would put that down to weather circulation patterns tending to 'bottle-up' the cooler air in the Artic region. Obviously this is a big generalisation and I have noticed that northern Canada has had a very mild autumn so far which of course is influencing the sea ice in that area. Svalbard on the other hand has been nearer average (which means cooler than recent years) which must be impacting ice extents to the east of Greenland. 

Yes so it is wrong to say that the ice rebuild is late this year, compared with the last 10 year average I think it is slightly above average