Quite a contrast in to the GFS - the ECM shows something more zonal at day 10 with a really strong Azores high and lower heights over Greenland and Iceland in 12z:

GFS 12z @ 240z: - A Greenland high of 1075mb's.

Either the ECM is defaulting to zonal or the GFS is over cooking the block. I expect somewhere in between however it is a long way off. met office are still fairly confident about colder weather with wintry showers in their extended outlook. - More runs needed of course.

Differences between GFS and ECM but both have large HP blocks in the run but vary in where it may sit. Blended solution possible

HP influence now can yield cold temperatures even if the blocks are less favourable. All very dependant

It has been pretty cold for November in Central England, obviously there will be large regional variations

IMBY 6.6 after 8 days which is -1.5 vs the National CET currently and below vs 81-10, 91-20 and 01-20 Nov average

Helped by 4 air frosts of course and last night down to 1.1 

Quite a contrast in to the GFS - the ECM shows something more zonal at day 10 with a really strong Azores high and lower heights over Greenland and Iceland in 12z:

 

GFS 12z @ 240z: - A Greenland high of 1075mb's.

Either the GFS is defaulting to zonal or the ECM is over cooking the block. I expect somewhere in between however it is a long way off. met office are still fairly confident about colder weather with wintry showers in their extended outlook. - More runs needed of course.

Presume you mean that the other way round yes?? You said above the ECM is looking more zonal, GFS blocked, but below saying GFS defaulting to zonal... confused.com...

 

 

Presume you mean that the other way round yes?? You said above the ECM is looking more zonal, GFS blocked, but below saying GFS defaulting to zonal... confused.com...

Yes haha - Corrected! Sorry only had 4 hrs sleep last night!

Trend setters ? 

Trend setters ? 

Currenlty some runs going cold around 18th and a few more from 22nd

A few of the MOGREPS runs are looking quite cold.

ecm not having any of what the gfs is showing. No surprises there. I am always very wary when I see amplified synoptic charts like the 12z gfs op and control run with no support from the strat. Not saying it can not happen but very unlikely.
Jan 87 is the only time that springs to my mind where a very potent cold spell occurred that was trop led.

Genuine question here...  does the QBO have a bearing on this at all?  Easterly now descending?

 

Genuine question here...  does the QBO have a bearing on this at all?  Easterly now descending?

Yes - in short: The unusual signals from the models for blocking will be influenced by the QBO being in its negative phase: The westerly phase helps drive weather systems from west to east, where’s that extra dynamo power is not there now, and being in reverse can slow down systems and encourage Trop’ blocks. The combined effect of the La Niña in the Pacific will help early blocking, rather than the normal super fast jet stream at this time of year - as the thermal gradient increases. 

The models are seemingly struggling to pin down the block development and I will expect more see-saw runs between very blocked and partial/ temporary block scenarios. Either way, there is potential for this year to develop into something very interesting for cold lovers, to which I firmly belong. The model rollercoaster has begun and I plan on enjoying the ride and hopefully not getting too disappointed if the models struggle with abnormal patterns as they do and change the crazy snow dump IMBY to drizzle and Snizzle. After all - we have had a pandemic, and thus far - I’m still here and breathing - so I am already relishing the journey and chance to see a Christmas card scene again in dear old Blighty - like I did last year. 

The climate might be 0.9 degrees higher than my childhood, but given the right Synoptics, I might still witness the utter transformational beauty of a crisp snow storm on the deciduous twigs and branches of a Norfolk woodland.. Enjoy....

I enjoyed those runs, if nothing else to finally see some cold pooling flooding into Eastern Europe

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEE18_336_5.png

-12 to -10 mid-Nov daytime maxes in W Russia, almost old-school.

Yes another very cold GFS op run.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=00&charthour=255&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

Yes another very cold GFS op run.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=00&charthour=255&chartname=mslp850&chartregion=na&charttag=MSLP%20850hPa%20C

 

Be happy with that in 10 days 

Some support from the Control as well but not  much else yet. ECM not really buying the cold plunge yet either. But the GFS is often the first to pick up major pattern changes.  So we live in hope.

so this is a useful ensemble graph to be watching over the next few days. ;) 

Relatively unlikely - for now. But as Ally says this is sometimes how we see things kicking off initially.