Be happy with that in 10 days 

Looking good Marcus, but I want to see ECM trending the same way. However, a very interesting end to autumn as it stands.

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The models have been for some time playing with a switch from zonal to meridional to occur about a week from now, but with major difficulties in predicting where and how strong the associated northerly plunge will be (and the southerly uprise but for some reason that seems to excite less interest). So this morning's version, with GFS and ECM taking different views:

WX summary: week 1 as yesterday with cold air moving in steadily from the NE; but this area of cold shrinks a little in week 2 while becoming colder. But also in week 2 there is evidence of a northerly with intense cold over S Norway and a patch with  the 0C isotherm in E France & S Germany not connected to the E, and even a small spot of 0C over Scotland. All this is new since yesterday. The rian/snow pattern has altered too - from N Atlantic and separately the W Med week 1, to week 2 where the W coast of Europe, the Baltic and the Alps/Italy are affected.

Jet: currently mostly W-ly to N of Scotland. looping N Sun 14th, back to a W-ly for a few days, then from Thu 18th looping S a little to the E of UK so that the S-ly flow on the trailing side of the loop runs down across the UK for a week before the loop breaks up

GFS op: W/SW-lies between LP to the N and HP to the S to Sat 13th before the HP intensifies 1035mb covering UK Tue 16th then retreating to Greenland with N-ly plunge and eventually LP 990mb N Sea Sun 21st with cold pool across the Low Countries. Reload Tue 23rd, 985 mb Cornwall with cold pool over UK, filling and moving SE while HP edges in from the W weakening but not displacing the N-ly. 

GEFS: mean temp declines slowly and steadily from mild now to a little below Thu 25th. Op & control take a dive to 8 or 10C below from Wed 18th along with some other runs but there is a group which remains mild so cold plunge not nailed on yet. A very small amount of ran from Thu 18th, dry until then (a worry for water supplies, this should be the recharge season). More variation in temps further north but overall similar.

ECM: makes more of LP off W Scotland Fri 12th which moves SE and keeps pressure slack over UK rather than high until it travels on to France Sun 14th. HP then re-establishes over UK but not so intense as GFS Tue 16th. The HP centre then retreats SW to Biscay not to Greenland Fri 19th (end of run) and suggests that any cold plunge will be from the NW and only affect Shetland

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GFS Op and Control go for cold options in mid-term but not ECM op 0z. Positioning of HP continues to be crucial but it looks quite dry and HP dominated for the south at least so maybe frost/fog at times even under the milder options

ooooof

 

 

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The 06z GFS ensembles show around 10 degrees of variation in 850 temps from 4 days out. Calling anything beyond that a "forecast" at this stage is being a little optimistic in my opinion. Basically conditions on the ground could be almost anything. 🤔

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I was just watching Brian's latest video on YouTube a short while ago and apart from a few hints of a possible cold snap which probably won't even verify, I didn't really see anything there in terms of the general model output to actually get excited about in any way.

September was a boring month in terms of our weather, and this month has up until now reverted back to that. According to the latest model output as well, it just looks as though our late autumn borefest looks set to continue with very little in the way of aany actual weather happening (no doubt, that will be especially true if you live here in Edinburgh where interesting weather doesn't generally happen anyway).

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I'm sure most of us would prefer to keep the mild, benign and relatively dry conditions going for a while longer yet. If a cold spell does arrive from the north lets hope its a dry and crisp NNW'ly rather than a cold and showery NE'ly. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49909

Fortunately plenty of milder and drier options on the table.

Proper cold can wait until late January or early February thank you very much ! 

 

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I'm sure most of us would prefer to keep the mild, benign and relatively dry conditions going for a while longer yet. If a cold spell does arrive from the north lets hope its a dry and crisp NNW'ly rather than a cold and showery NE'ly. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=49909

Fortunately plenty of milder and drier options on the table.

Proper cold can wait until late January or early February thank you very much ! 

 

I have to go to Manila in January for work. No doubt a nailed on cold spell now!

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I have to go to Manila in January for work.

What’s her name 

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Hold the front page gfs backs down, would you Adam and Eve it lol. You have to wonder what that model is on sometimes although having said that all the models have their moments I suppose. My worry ( for the winter and I hope I am wrong) is all these mid latitude highs are really doing is adding impetus to the vortex by stirring the pot if you like. 

Early days but no sign what so ever of any meaningful wave breaking into the strat for the forseeable.

Hold the front page gfs backs down, would you Adam and Eve it lol. You have to wonder what that model is on sometimes although having said that all the models have their moments I suppose. My worry ( for the winter and I hope I am wrong) is all these mid latitude highs are really doing is adding impetus to the vortex by stirring the pot if you like. 

Early days but no sign what so ever of any meaningful wave breaking into the strat for the forseeable.

 

Yes - Am I the only one who's struggling to see where the BBC and Met Officer are going with their continued forecast for colder weather and wintry showers later this month given we are now the 9th Nov yet there are little if any signs of Cold in the models? hmm! 

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I'm sure most of us would prefer to keep the mild, benign and relatively dry conditions going for a while longer yet. 

 

 

 

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Yes - Am I the only one who's struggling to see where the BBC and Met Officer are going with their continued forecast for colder weather and wintry showers later this month given we are now the 9th Nov yet there are little if any signs of Cold in the models? hmm! 

Worth remembering that the likes of the Met Office and the BBC have access to a greater amount of model output and information than the general public has access to.

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Worth remembering that the likes of the Met Office and the BBC have access to a greater amount of model output and information than the general public has access to.

Just out of interest what extra model information do they have?

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Just out of interest what extra model information do they have?

Maybe it’s a secret? And one probably worth keeping with millions of pounds of tax payers money funding the crystal ball… er, I mean super computers. 

Maybe it’s a secret? And one probably worth keeping with millions of pounds of tax payers money funding the crystal ball… er, I mean super computers. 

No. Supercomputers are what the national forecasting centres in the UK, USA, France, Germany etc run their computer models on. The question I am asking is what exactly is not available?

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Just out of interest what extra model information do they have?

Maybe my memory isn't what it once was, but I am fairly sure I can recall at least one person commenting in the past that forecasters such as the Met Office do have access to information that the general public do not have access to. I can't say exactly that that information might be.

If I am wrong about the above, I stand corrected. As I say though, I am only going by my own recollection.

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Maybe my memory isn't what it once was, but I am fairly sure I can recall at least one person commenting in the past that forecasters such as the Met Office do have access to information that the general public do not have access to. I can't say exactly that that information might be.

If I am wrong about the above, I stand corrected. As I say though, I am only going by my own recollection.

I think they benefit from having many of the best experts and analysts in the country. However, I'm not at all convinced by the model data argument. 

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Their GFS goes out to t+408

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No. Supercomputers are what the national forecasting centres in the UK, USA, France, Germany etc run their computer models on. The question I am asking is what exactly is not available?

I think you’ve answered your own question there. it’s without doubt they will have modelling capabilities out of the public’s reach, which we do not know about. Anyone know an Exeter insider? (and I don’t mean Fergie).

Further reading: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/technology/supercomputer