To he fair it does depend on the definition - I read it as because the last few winters were mild then the next one is more likely to be cold.

A commonly held misconception based on the entirely spurious 'Law of Averages'. If long range weather is random (as I suspect) then mild or cold outcomes are equally likely (think of tossing a coin); if there are connections from one year to the next, then that next year is IMO more likely to follow any existing pattern than to change it.

WX summary; the march of cold weather from the NE resumes in week 2 (0C isotherm into Poland and over a fair amount of the Alps) while the UK cools (14C isotherm moves from N Ireland to N Spain). PPtn is back to the pattern of a few days ago - currently N Atlantic , W Med and Baltic but in week 2 W coastal Europe and Med generally.

Jet - briefly looping N wards then until about Sun 14th across or close to Scotland before a big and strong plunge takes it down the W side of Uk and through the Med. That 'blows itself out' and normal service over Scotland resumes from Sat 20th

GFS op - W-ly pattern with LP never far from N and HP never far from S until Mon 15th when 965 mb Iceland moves SE to 980mb NE Scotland Tue 16th continuing S-wards and filling to set up a broad area of Lp over France Sat 20th having dragged cold air down with it. Pressure rise from SW ridging to Norway behind it. The LP fizzles out over Italy and W-lies resume over UK by Mon 22nd

GEFS - Mild or v. mild to about Tue 16th thereafter cool or cold but as usual with increasing uncertainty. Rain generally from Tue 16th in the S (snow row figures making an appearance 2s or 3s). Scotland has a dip in temp in the middle of the mild spell (11th) and rain starting a few days earlier in all parts but not much in the E.

ECM - at first keeps pressure higher over Britain than does GFS but still a W-ly pattern. The evolution from Sun 15th is different; first the LP near Iceland extends a trough S-wards in the E Atlantic with S-lies for UK and although this trough fills though with a general lowering of pressure over the UK  the parent LP shows no sign of moving from its base near SW Iceland even by Wed 17th

I saw that - models are really flip flopping especially this Siberian high spreading westwards into western Russia and then Scandinavia or not at all, it's like one run it's there and the next it's flat as a pancake. I really hope for some snow when I go to Stockholm. I would be interested to see where this 06z OP run stands with it's ENS members or if it's a cold outlier or colder ENS member.

Surprised the UM 168 hasn't been mentioned this morning.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=00&charthour=168&chartname=500hpa_height&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Not a million isobars from the 0z ECM (but it doesn't last in that model)

Lots of noise on Twitter about this. That’s the sort of high pressure that leads to something….we shall see.

Very foggy for northern britain under that

Be interesting to see where we will go from here ...........into FI of course 

UM 12z building high pressure again.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukmet.aspx?run=12&charthour=168&chartname=500hpa_height&chartregion=na-region&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

Looks like the signal is for temperatures to be at least a little lower in the mid term than was being favoured a couple of days ago.

There were certainly no cold winters after our three 12C+ autumns since 2006. And the big cold winters of the deep past all had cold autumns.

1979 is an exception, but not enough to disprove- and this is a sample of winters of course. I reckon you could be on to something there- and maintenance of sea temperatures in the autumn months could be an impacting factor. A challenge for the correlation champions? GW or KB?

How did the autumns of 2009 and 2010 turn out for CET?

I don't recall either being notably mild or notably cool, although I do remember November 2009 being mild and very, very wet.

I see the models continuing with relative accuracy as they have all year with above average temperatures

It would be foolish to expect a cold winter or cold december based on current run rate and climate temperatures in the UK for 2021 so far

2021 YTD is running......

+0.6 vs 1960-1991

+0.2 vs 1981-2010

-0.14 vs 1991-2020

Seen as 2021 is running close to the average for 91-20 then we should expect the final 2 months to run similar to the Nov and Dec average for this period

This would potentially mean Nov around 7.4 and Dec around 5 

That looks more than possible based on current 16 day forecast for Nov and LR models for December

You need to have some dose of reality when looking at the coming months rather than hoping. Hoping is where all the fun is though lol

Point taken. Saying that though, if someone had told me during the mild washout November of 2009 that a month or so later, we would be at the start of a major month-long freeze, I doubt I would have taken them seriously.

During November 2009, we seemed as far away from a freeze as we could have been, from what I recall of the daily model output there was at the time. There may have been some distant background indications of big changes as we went into December, but they were not obvious in the output that we had access to at the time from what I remember of it.

Yeah, strange. It's almost as if he's never heard of anomalies or outliers.

I agree with both above posts. We have had outliers and anomalies this year already. April And May a good case and that’s the main reason we sit on par with 91-20 average as the rest has been above average notably 

Agree that I also would not have predicted the cold we experienced in 09 & 10 following the autumn but those anomalies are once in a lifetime occurrence typically.

like April and May combo was the coldest for 80 odd years. They happen but they are infrequent

what I can see in the output we have available short term and long term I don’t see outliers yet. It might happen but might is I think at this stage the best it can be described 

The cold referred to in 09 & 10 is very recent history in the scene of evolution so I suppose there’s less probability it could happen again within 10-12 years etc. GW does seem to increase severe events but even that is more Hope than probability?

Not quite sure what your point is here? It's just another month that makes up the annual anomaly, sounds as though you are suggesting it shouldn't be counted in the data? As for it popping out of nowhere, I'm also confused by that, the same could be said for any anomalously cold or warm month.

Not strictly model output but well worth taking a look at Atlantic SSTs. I can't recall seeing something this extreme before. 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png

If that's correct then the NE Pacific has cooled significantly...which might make some of the long range models, that place a great big HP anomaly there for the winter period, look rather foolish.

Shockingly high Atlantic temperatures Brian, except for a tiny spot off Shetland! Hudson Bay and the arctic regions seem to be especially warm, and therefore sea ice formation will be very late this year. The loss of the albido effect on keeping temperatures down may prove significant and certainly will cumulatively in the years ahead. This particular winter - we may see more blocking, so this would lead to more widespread early snow cover on land (which cools down fast), which might serve to counteract the loss of albido effect from the warm oceans. My Guess is that Hudson Bay will not freeze until January - leaving a lot of starving polar bears on its shores, unable to reach the seal hunting grounds. 

GFS now trending towards a new block and an eventual cold plunge by the 20th - but still too warm for snow anywhere south of the Scottish highlands. Good year for alpine snow though - as the polar maritime fronts penetrate into Europe.

Wow - GFS Op run this morning is showing a very blocked pattern - with 2 notable cold plunges, the second cold enough for the first wintry precipitation south of Scotland (as far down as Norfolk) - were it to verify. The only problem being - the runs are very different run by run, as if the models are struggling with these blocked scenarios, which they seem to do far more than the common flow of west to east Atlantic fare.

Wx summary temps like yesterday but the cold patch over the Alps increases too;   the march of cold weather from the NE resumes in week 2 (0C isotherm into Poland and over a fair amount of the Alps) while the UK cools (14C isotherm moves from N Ireland to N Spain). PPtn pattern changed again - currently N Atlantic , W Med and Baltic but in week 2 instead of  coastal Europe the front line mow fromm Baltic down to Italy though N Atlantic still gets its share

GFS op  starts out zonal to with HP to S (spoilt early this week by trailing front across England as shown on FAX) and LP to N switching to a pattern of N_S ridges of HP and N-ly plunges mainly down N Sea, just missing UK- Sun 14th and Sun 21st (v strong) with brief reversion tp W/SW- lies in between

GEFS mean stays mild this week slowly decreasing to below norm at end of period. Many runs but not opand control ignore the first plunge and mot so many the second one - a wide range of outcomes with the mild/cold runs grouped, not much in the middle. Even more chaotic for Scotland which may mis the worst of the N/NE plunges. Not much rain and that mostly later on and in the N. 

ECM similar but with a strong HP 1040mb Mon 15th between plunges

WX and GFS op don't match well