WX summary; the march of cold weather from the NE resumes in week 2 (0C isotherm into Poland and over a fair amount of the Alps) while the UK cools (14C isotherm moves from N Ireland to N Spain). PPtn is back to the pattern of a few days ago - currently N Atlantic , W Med and Baltic but in week 2 W coastal Europe and Med generally.
Jet - briefly looping N wards then until about Sun 14th across or close to Scotland before a big and strong plunge takes it down the W side of Uk and through the Med. That 'blows itself out' and normal service over Scotland resumes from Sat 20th
GFS op - W-ly pattern with LP never far from N and HP never far from S until Mon 15th when 965 mb Iceland moves SE to 980mb NE Scotland Tue 16th continuing S-wards and filling to set up a broad area of Lp over France Sat 20th having dragged cold air down with it. Pressure rise from SW ridging to Norway behind it. The LP fizzles out over Italy and W-lies resume over UK by Mon 22nd
GEFS - Mild or v. mild to about Tue 16th thereafter cool or cold but as usual with increasing uncertainty. Rain generally from Tue 16th in the S (snow row figures making an appearance 2s or 3s). Scotland has a dip in temp in the middle of the mild spell (11th) and rain starting a few days earlier in all parts but not much in the E.
ECM - at first keeps pressure higher over Britain than does GFS but still a W-ly pattern. The evolution from Sun 15th is different; first the LP near Iceland extends a trough S-wards in the E Atlantic with S-lies for UK and although this trough fills though with a general lowering of pressure over the UK the parent LP shows no sign of moving from its base near SW Iceland even by Wed 17th
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl