Wx summary temps like yesterday but the cold patch over the Alps increases too; the march of cold weather from the NE resumes in week 2 (0C isotherm into Poland and over a fair amount of the Alps) while the UK cools (14C isotherm moves from N Ireland to N Spain). PPtn pattern changed again - currently N Atlantic , W Med and Baltic but in week 2 instead of coastal Europe the front line mow fromm Baltic down to Italy though N Atlantic still gets its share
GFS op starts out zonal to with HP to S (spoilt early this week by trailing front across England as shown on FAX) and LP to N switching to a pattern of N_S ridges of HP and N-ly plunges mainly down N Sea, just missing UK- Sun 14th and Sun 21st (v strong) with brief reversion tp W/SW- lies in between
GEFS mean stays mild this week slowly decreasing to below norm at end of period. Many runs but not opand control ignore the first plunge and mot so many the second one - a wide range of outcomes with the mild/cold runs grouped, not much in the middle. Even more chaotic for Scotland which may mis the worst of the N/NE plunges. Not much rain and that mostly later on and in the N.
ECM similar but with a strong HP 1040mb Mon 15th between plunges
WX and GFS op don't match well
Edited by user
08 November 2021 08:18:51
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Reason: Not specified
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Chichester 12m asl