Shockingly high Atlantic temperatures Brian, except for a tiny spot off Shetland! Hudson Bay and the arctic regions seem to be especially warm, and therefore sea ice formation will be very late this year. The loss of the albido effect on keeping temperatures down may prove significant and certainly will cumulatively in the years ahead. This particular winter - we may see more blocking, so this would lead to more widespread early snow cover on land (which cools down fast), which might serve to counteract the loss of albido effect from the warm oceans. My Guess is that Hudson Bay will not freeze until January - leaving a lot of starving polar bears on its shores, unable to reach the seal hunting grounds. 

GFS now trending towards a new block and an eventual cold plunge by the 20th - but still too warm for snow anywhere south of the Scottish highlands. Good year for alpine snow though - as the polar maritime fronts penetrate into Europe.

Originally Posted by: BJBlake 

Not quite sure what your point is here? It's just another month that makes up the annual anomaly, sounds as though you are suggesting it shouldn't be counted in the data? As for it popping out of nowhere, I'm also confused by that, the same could be said for any anomalously cold or warm month.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

Not strictly model output but well worth taking a look at Atlantic SSTs. I can't recall seeing something this extreme before. 

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Before we get to the potential cold though, the ECM 00Z goes for a nasty Atlantic storm on Friday. Scotland and N. England would be especially hard hit with that, especially since many of the trees still have leaves after the mild autumn so far.

Only after that does it bring high pressure in properly, and then hint at it pulling down a N/NW'ly blast as it pulls out into the Altantic.

Originally Posted by: Bolty 

Incorrect - arctic sea ice is around 30% up on last year

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

I was at the coast last weekend and surprised to see the sea temperature still at 16C at Studland - due to the mild autumn no doubt.

That map is strange though if you look off the eastern seaboard of the USA - lots of small areas of very cold anomalies dotted among the very warm anomalies. What would cause that?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

My point is that no anomalously cold month can ever be discounted, no matter the run of warm anomalies that precede it.

An anomalously cold month could be regarded as "popping up out of nowhere" if the month is bookmarked by a run of warm months either side of it.

Originally Posted by: AlvinMeister 

Up 30% on last year but still way below the normal extent for the time of year, especially on the Canadian and Scandinavian  sides. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Up 30% on 2020 doesn't really mean anything as last year was incredibly low. Those Hudson Bay temperatures do indeed look worrying for any ice formation there any time soon.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The highest sea ice extent since 2015 is reasonably significant but probably only on a short term basis. As you say, some parts of the Arctic have little or no ice yet. Longer term, ice thickness is more important than ice extent because the areas which are re-freezing this winter can quickly thaw if they are warmer again next year. So this might be seen as a 'blip' in the downward trend in ice extent. 

From what I've observed since spring, the Arctic was generally cooler this summer than in other recent years, but I would put that down to weather circulation patterns tending to 'bottle-up' the cooler air in the Artic region. Obviously this is a big generalisation and I have noticed that northern Canada has had a very mild autumn so far which of course is influencing the sea ice in that area. Svalbard on the other hand has been nearer average (which means cooler than recent years) which must be impacting ice extents to the east of Greenland. 

Originally Posted by: GezM 

I was at the coast last weekend and surprised to see the sea temperature still at 16C at Studland - due to the mild autumn no doubt.

That map is strange though if you look off the eastern seaboard of the USA - lots of small areas of very cold anomalies dotted among the very warm anomalies. What would cause that?

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

werent the SSTs really mild in- was it 2010? 

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

2010 anomalies for 8th November.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/crw/tsps50km/sst_anomaly/2010/sst.anomaly.field.browse.50km.n19.20101108.bmp

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

OT but I'm not sure where to ask. I'd like to know how many cold spells (so 5 days or longer) there have been in the UK during this century which resulted from an inversion. I can only recall one good example and I'm not sure which year it was. My point is that low level cold (or faux cold as it has been called) is actually rare because more often than not it is too windy or too cloudy etc.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

OT but I'm not sure where to ask. I'd like to know how many cold spells (so 5 days or longer) there have been in the UK during this century which resulted from an inversion. I can only recall one good example and I'm not sure which year it was. My point is that low level cold (or faux cold as it has been called) is actually rare because more often than not it is too windy or too cloudy etc.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Very similar to this year with a cold PDO, warm Atlantic although with a bit of a tripole forming in the Atlantic. That is the one thing we are so far missing in terms of SSTs is a cooler band through the mid Atlantic, if we had that then the oceans would be very favourable for blocking and cold.

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 

OT but I'm not sure where to ask. I'd like to know how many cold spells (so 5 days or longer) there have been in the UK during this century which resulted from an inversion. I can only recall one good example and I'm not sure which year it was. My point is that low level cold (or faux cold as it has been called) is actually rare because more often than not it is too windy or too cloudy etc.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

2010 anomalies for 8th November.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/crw/tsps50km/sst_anomaly/2010/sst.anomaly.field.browse.50km.n19.20101108.bmp

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

New Year 2008/2009 got pretty cold through an inversion type thing didn't it?

Interesting 12z incoming BTW 

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 

Yes nice GFS 12z. GFS in particular starting to pick up significant HLB as we head into late November. Is it onto something?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Yes nice GFS 12z. GFS in particular starting to pick up significant HLB as we head into late November. Is it onto something?

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman