MetO now predicting ~31c for Heathrow by Sunday 

Interesting that the BBC only has 28c. 

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Focus of the heat on the UKV has shifted southwards which is probably why the Met is going ~30C in the Heathrow area.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=03&charthour=87&chartname=max_temp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=1.5m%20max%20temp%20C

 

 

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My prediction: Liverpool airport will get there on Friday morning.

That station is really getting my goat. They are spoiling enjoyment of xcweather.com. "25C" there currently. Someone needs to go in and turn off the radiator.

Quite. They are currently reporting 20C with Manchester on 14C. Over the past few weeks Liverpool has been consistently 4/5 degrees higher than Manchester by both day & night. On average you would expect Liverpool to be a little cooler than Manchester simply due to it's coastal location. Doesn't anybody look at the data they are churning out, which is clearly incorrect. At this rate Liverpool could quite easily end up with the 'highest' reading in the country during the next few days but with something obviously anomalous. Perhaps at that stage it would be flagged up that there is something very wrong with the Liverpool readings.

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Quite. They are currently reporting 20C with Manchester on 14C. Over the past few weeks Liverpool has been consistently 4/5 degrees higher than Manchester by both day & night. On average you would expect Liverpool to be a little cooler than Manchester simply due to it's coastal location. Doesn't anybody look at the data they are churning out, which is clearly incorrect. At this rate Liverpool could quite easily end up with the 'highest' reading in the country during the next few days but with something obviously anomalous. Perhaps at that stage it would be flagged up that there is something very wrong with the Liverpool readings.

At least the Met Office is ignoring this location in its 24 hour extremes ...
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation

 

 

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By looking at the current position of our latest area of high pressure, it is easy to see why nowhere in the UK has seen 30°C yet.

Until now, the HP has been centred slightly to our south and west which means that it has actually been feeding in slightly cooler Atlantic air around the top of it across Scotland.

That appears to have had a slight cooling effect although parts of E Scotland have still got very warm with that due to the Foehn Effect.

This shows that in order for the UK to be seeing temperatures in the 30s, we really need the HP to be a bit further east so that it is then pulling up hot air from the south and from the near continent.

On the odd very rare occasion, this can even result in those sorts of temperatures extending as far north as SE Scotland as we saw in 2019.

I'm not expecting that to happen this time, but SE England could well be seeing those sorts of temperatures from that over the next few days if the latest model output is correct.

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By looking at the current position of our latest area of high pressure, it is easy to see why nowhere in the UK has seen 30°C yet.

Until now, the HP has been centred slightly to our south and west which means that it has actually been feeding in slightly cooler Atlantic air around the top of it across Scotland.

That appears to have had a slight cooling effect although parts of E Scotland have still got very warm with that due to the Foehn Effect.

This shows that in order for the UK to be seeing temperatures in the 30s, we really need the HP to be a bit further east so that it is then pulling up hot air from the south and from the near continent.

On the odd very rare occasion, this can even result in those sorts of temperatures extending as far north as SE Scotland as we saw in 2019.

I'm not expecting that to happen this time, but SE England could well be seeing those sorts of temperatures from that over the next few days if the latest model output is correct.

Reflected in the ensembles. The best chance appears to be Sunday but things have taken a backstep today

Some charts going for 30-31C in Birmingham area by Sunday so in order to get this temperatures today clouds need to go away as it completely outstay it welcome as it was clear this morning but rushed in very fast as you turn your head around for no reason?

To get 30C in Birmingham requirements as some charts shown.

Today need to be sunny to warm up the ground and air temps, 

Wall to wall sunshine is a must tomorrow to Sunday without a single cloud and need a break from those ugly stuff on sky after 1 month of this.

Still inside the house waiting for useable weather and sunny skies to come to do things outside as i haven't done so for a month now.

After the heatwave when it return to low to  mid 20's just want to see sunny weather continue as it doesn't have to be sunny when it hot but can be sunny at average to above average temperatures which so far been lacking this summer.

Still this summer is been very poor and will stay poor and too late to take back as we almost 1 month from maximum longest day had been severely lost chances for heatwaves like other countries did eg in W Canada or Finland.

By looking at the current position of our latest area of high pressure, it is easy to see why nowhere in the UK has seen 30°C yet.

Until now, the HP has been centred slightly to our south and west which means that it has actually been feeding in slightly cooler Atlantic air around the top of it across Scotland.

That appears to have had a slight cooling effect although parts of E Scotland have still got very warm with that due to the Foehn Effect.

This shows that in order for the UK to be seeing temperatures in the 30s, we really need the HP to be a bit further east so that it is then pulling up hot air from the south and from the near continent.

On the odd very rare occasion, this can even result in those sorts of temperatures extending as far north as SE Scotland as we saw in 2019.

I'm not expecting that to happen this time, but SE England could well be seeing those sorts of temperatures from that over the next few days if the latest model output is correct.

As you said to get 30C here we need days of sunny weather prior to those temperatures as the cloud is the biggest issue than the HP position.

In the past starting from 22C average see sunny periods then becoming sunny days for 4-5 days or a week then temperatures to to the low 30's when a plume come up,  Storms arrive follow back to  sunny spells and returning to average temperatures.   Sunny period to Sunny spells had been absent this summer only overcast or clear skies at sunrise or sunset for few minutes so making all day not useable.  I remember seeing Edinburgh or Glasgow regular see those high temperatures every time we get a heatwave.

 

At least the Met Office is ignoring this location in its 24 hour extremes ...
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation

 

 

 

I don’t think Liverpool is in the running anymore as the HP centre is modelled the be in a slightly different place. 

As a result we are expecting a westerly drift in NW England rather than a fohn effect off the Pennines where Liverpool also benefits from a long land track.

 

Sheffield now forecast to be 28C on Saturday and Manchester slightly to 25C from 27C.

 

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I'm hoping it won't be hit. We've come this far, would be wierdly cool to see an August first 30C.

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I see that even parts of Scotland are expected to get up to around 28°C over the weekend.

That would give Edinburgh its hottest day of this year so far if those temperatures were to occur there and given that we are so much further north here in Scotland, you would imagine that SE England at the very least, should be seeing temperatures of over 30°C with that, and perhaps even be doing so by quite a considerable amount.

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Met Office going for 31C on Sunday in their recent tweet.

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The Met Office App has downgraded the maximum temperature for the London area to 29 degrees and that will be Sunday according to this morning’s updates. If this wretched NE breeze continues through the forthcoming spell there is little chance of high temperatures being sustained. Today Thursday it is very breezy and cool with just 20 degrees so far at  lunchtime 

I'm now noticing that the high is being forecast to drift northwards a bit and introduce more of a feed from off the North Sea by Monday.

For me, that will probably mean a return to cooler temperatures and yet more easterly muck from off the North Sea when I head back up to Edinburgh.

For down south though, that will probably result in the highest temperatures being further west where the chances of anybody seeing a temperature of over 30°C may well increase as a result.

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The Met Office App has downgraded the maximum temperature for the London area to 29 degrees and that will be Sunday according to this morning’s updates. If this wretched NE breeze continues through the forthcoming spell there is little chance of high temperatures being sustained. Today Thursday it is very breezy and cool with just 20 degrees so far at  lunchtime 

 

I'm not holding my breath for this spell making 30C. Could be very close but no cigar......

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The Met Office App has downgraded the maximum temperature for the London area to 29 degrees and that will be Sunday according to this morning’s updates. If this wretched NE breeze continues through the forthcoming spell there is little chance of high temperatures being sustained. Today Thursday it is very breezy and cool with just 20 degrees so far at  lunchtime 

We'll just enjoy the possible 30C down here on the southern coastline if the winds are from the N/NE 😜 

 

We'll just enjoy the possible 30C down here on the southern coastline if the winds are from the N/NE 😜 

More chance of Leeds (28c Sunday) hitting 30c than Portsmouth (27c Friday) if you go by the Met Office automated. 

 

However there is no official station in either so we will never know. 

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At least the Met Office is ignoring this location in its 24 hour extremes ...
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observation

 

 

I don't think Liverpool airport is an official Met station anyway, is it?

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More chance of Leeds (28c Sunday) hitting 30c than Portsmouth (27c Friday) if you go by the Met Office automated. 

 

However there is no official station in either so we will never know. 

We hit 27C yesterday but the nearest official station @ Gosport fleetland hit 25.5C. Incidentally it was the official hot spot in UK.

Gosport fleetland is around 4 miles as the crow flies, but its located right on the waterline.

If automated says 27C then you can easily add a couple of degrees on, 29C is almost certainly going to be reached here. 

Somehow despite overcast skies we still managed 24C today.

 

Edit: actually we have 28C forecasted for Sunday going on automated metoffice forecast.

Here in Fulham at 7pm it is 19 degrees with dark grey overcast skies and a stiff NNE breeze . I find it difficult to believe we are going to get a reversal in fortunes with warmer weather over the next 2-3 days. The temperature for tomorrow Friday has been downgraded again for tomorrow to a maximum of 24 degrees from a projected 27 from the MO.