A couple of 29s at Southend and LCY so there’s a chance somewhere will have maxed at 30, either one of the AWS or a manual station.

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Last day of anything remotely hot for several days at the very least.

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Heathrow 29.2C is the highest I have seen so far.

Wisley 29.1C

Unfortunately, some of the SYNOP data is not pulling through at the moment so can't see the 18z reports for all the stations.

Frittenden was higher than both Heathrow and Wisley at 16z.

The highest temperature at 16z seems to be Hull East Park at 28.1C. So that may have been the warmest place today. Could have got close to 30C.

 

I realise it's not quite the same thing as station data but the MetO/CEDA 5km square daily data runs from 1960 to 2016 and can be used to produce the date for the 1st 30C reading each year

This is the ASCII version. There is a NetCDF version which goes doen to 1km squares and runs up to 2020 but I would need my own supercomputer to analyse this level of detail

I checked the outputs against the list of UK max's by year and location and the majority were in agreement to within +/- 0.2C so I think this list is pretty accurate

The only problem is where the annual maximum was just over or just under 30C where this error margin is a nuisance

Anywhay here is the list from the 5km CEDA data fro 1960-2016

I suspect trawling back this far to get the individual station data may prove to be extremely difficult

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12 September 1985 was a late one!

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This hasn't happened yet right?

If we have to wait until July that would presumably make it a rather late year?

 

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I realise it's not quite the same thing as station data but the MetO/CEDA 5km square daily data runs from 1960 to 2016 and can be used to produce the date for the 1st 30C reading each year

This is the ASCII version. There is a NetCDF version which goes doen to 1km squares and runs up to 2020 but I would need my own supercomputer to analyse this level of detail

I checked the outputs against the list of UK max's by year and location and the majority were in agreement to within +/- 0.2C so I think this list is pretty accurate

The only problem is where the annual maximum was just over or just under 30C where this error margin is a nuisance

Anywhay here is the list from the 5km CEDA data fro 1960-2016

I suspect trawling back this far to get the individual station data may prove to be extremely difficult

Thanks Lanky

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This hasn't happened yet right?

If we have to wait until July that would presumably make it a rather late year?

Presumably not despite a warm June.

Nothing to indicate a 30'c going forward either despite it being rather warm.

Mention of 1985 reminds me of what a crap summer that was.

September and early October were more like summer!

Bump.

Mid July now and it hasn't yet happened.

 

Quite unusual in the modern times right?

 

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Bump.

Mid July now and it hasn't yet happened.

Quite unusual in the modern times right?

It is, although we obviously came very close on the 14th June.   I reckon we'll get there within the week though (MetO forecast has ~29c for Heathrow on Sunday, for example)

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It is, although we obviously came very close on the 14th June.   I reckon we'll get there within the week though (MetO forecast has ~29c for Heathrow on Sunday, for example)

Interesting in that it's been a warm summer(on CET). As you say, chances are it will happen this weekend/early next week with uppers significantly above average under high pressure. Chance of 32'c IMO

It is, although we obviously came very close on the 14th June.   I reckon we'll get there within the week though (MetO forecast has ~29c for Heathrow on Sunday, for example)

Not in the bag yet though. The GFS goes for something like this:

Only around 26C in the London area, so probably not enough. 29C rather than 30C like the met says then?

 

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If ever a year doesn't get to 30c it could be this one. The warm spell coming up looks like getting close but no guarantees.  The cet this summer is high but no real heatwave yet.

 

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On today's 6Z ensembles it takes until the 19th July to get a single one showing anything above 30C and it is only one.

If it doesn't happen this weekend or early next week we could be waiting until August.

 

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Monday looks like a good candidate, widespread warm uppers of 15C+ should make it easy. But a sea breeze and a humid airmass will be big problems. If it does hit 30C on Monday it will have to be somewhere in the west.

 

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On today's 6Z ensembles it takes until the 19th July to get a single one showing anything above 30C and it is only one.

If it doesn't happen this weekend or early next week we could be waiting until August.

 

I wouldn't be basing anything of GFS predicted temps it always underestimates.  Other output gets close to 30c but only just and not for long. So big doubt still.

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Bump.

Mid July now and it hasn't yet happened.

 

Quite unusual in the modern times right?

 

Not since 18/07/2016 I believe with the later years all in June

Prior to that though, July and even August were more common and before the 1990's getting on for half the years between 1960 and 1989 never made it at all

 

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My prediction: Liverpool airport will get there on Friday morning.

That station is really getting my goat. They are spoiling enjoyment of xcweather.com. "25C" there currently. Someone needs to go in and turn off the radiator.

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Current forecast maxes for Sunday/Monday per model:

ECMWF: 26, 25 (London & W Midlands but they are always a few degrees low)

ICON: 28, 29 (London)

GFS: 30 (in Yorkshire), 28 

GEM: 30, 30 (both in West country)

For reference, Arome is going for 24C in Central London this afternoon and 25C tomorrow vs for example GFS saying 23 and 23. So it does feel as if 30C is on, somewhere in the country. 

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MetO now predicting ~31c for Heathrow by Sunday 

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