At a glance the outlook looks rather average which I guess is an improvement on it looking rather cool.

Still looking very unsettled and temperatures average to cool through to nearly the end of the month. Could it be that we don't make 25c in May, that can't have happened often?

I think this is more likely than ever. Nothing remotely summery on the horizon.

 

I think this is more likely than ever. Nothing remotely summery on the horizon.

On the other hand it looks quite “springy”.

 

I think this is more likely than ever. Nothing remotely summery on the horizon.

21C today and warm sunshine was a big improvement on what we have had though , to say the least.

I don't ever recall seeing the 850 ensemble mean run so  tight to the long term mean for its whole length with this little deviation. 100% sure the weather will be well, average!

 

The HLB pattern has already been here for 6 weeks. I think the chances of it lasting until June are unlikely let alone August. 

The abysmal summers in that 07-12 era that saw HLB'ing directing low after low over the UK and persistent westerlies tended to start with the HLB'ing in June/July (we had some really good spells in spring in a few of those years)

By September, the pattern had usually faded.

I'm hoping - and expecting - the HLB'ing to have burned itself out by the end of June. 

 

I think this is more likely than ever. Nothing remotely summery on the horizon.

However, September could be something to look forward too. September often produces fine, sunny weather, at least away from the NW.

 

I think this is more likely than ever. Nothing remotely summery on the horizon.

Agreed, the GEFS are not even giving a whiff of something hot at the moment and even though 850s look average with it being unsettled daytime temps likely to be a little below average. Of course it could flip short term but at this stage it's looking like June at least before what you might class as 'Summer' arrives.

Still looking very unsettled and temperatures average to cool through to nearly the end of the month. Could it be that we don't make 25c in May, that can't have happened often?

Not for quite a while anyway.

As an aside, does anyone know how many Mays in the 1980s recorded 25c and above?

 

1983 would like a word too. May was horrendous but July had the 2nd highest monthly CET of all time.

I seem to recall May 2006 being pretty mediocre for weather too. Like 1983 though, the weather improved considerably thereafter and that July recorded the highest monthly CET on record, toppling the old record from July '83 in the process.

I don't ever recall seeing the 850 ensemble mean run so  tight to the long term mean for its whole length with this little deviation. 100% sure the weather will be well, average!

As I commented on the current conditions thread, it is just  possible that the 21C we reached is the warmest of the whole  month. In reality, I expect we will get at least a short burst of heat to exceed that, but it is not guaranteed right now. 

Agreed, the GEFS are not even giving a whiff of something hot at the moment and even though 850s look average with it being unsettled daytime temps likely to be a little below average. Of course it could flip short term but at this stage it's looking like June at least before what you might class as 'Summer' arrives.

Erm, doesn’t summer usually start in June?  

It does of course yes, but most years you would normally get at least a few days of low to mid 20s in May or even April (Summer Weather basically). With the way things are looking it could be well into June before we see that.

 

It does of course yes, but most years you would normally get at least a few days of low to mid 20s in May or even April (Summer Weather basically). With the way things are looking it could be well into June before we see that.

 850s about as average as you can get for the next 2 weeks. Plenty of showers basically good growing weather. April like weather in May. 

Without question the last month has been one of the most interesting periods of weather I can remember. Will it continue or can we expect a "2 day waft from the south" to deliver 30C as has been the case in recent years. 

 

 850s about as average as you can get for the next 2 weeks. Plenty of showers basically good growing weather. April like weather in May. 

 

Yes, it looks as though the weather is a month behind its traditional behaviour, with 'April' showers for most of May.

Jetstream waving around a bit for the next few days but setling down to a steady W-ly across France until Thu 20th when loops bring it N to the UK, on and off, to Wed 28th

GFS - current LP staying around and filling to Sat 15th, then unlike yesterday's forecast, shallow LPs moving to the UK from the Atlantic (looks like yesterday's ECM model) keeping weather on the cool side and probably showery. A significant LP 985 mb Sun 23rd N Ireland filling and moving to Denmark Tue 25th followed by a standard Atlantic W-ly pattern.

GEFS - see APS post above - remarkably good agreement between runs  almost all the way to Wed 26th (some variation sets in ca Sun 23rd), temps near seasonal norm without peaks or troughs, perhaps a bit below norm in the S, rainfall in a showery pattern throughout.

ECM - like GFS but the 'significant LP' is already winding up on the Atlantic Thu 20th i.e. a couple of days earlier than GFS

Model watchers can go back to sleep for a week or so.