Jetstream running across the S of the UK, at first directly then as part of a loop. From Wed 12th it switches to a more S-ly track and continues there for a week, occasionally looping up and around the UK to support LP close to S England. Final frames show a more fragmented stream, but with one fragment or another affecting some part of the UK. Not good either for warmth or dryness.

16-dayer has gone back to being wet in the south at last for week 2, since yesterday's forecast.

GFS Current LP decays over Britain to Sat 15th, followed by a week of slack HP around the UK, centred mainly to N and E, before significant LP appears mid-Atlantic to pump up air from the S (esp into SE England). This does not by a long way match the jetstream model!

GEFS briefly warm , then cool for S England to Sat 15th but in NW nearer norm through this period, after which mean near norm but with increasingly large spread. Some rain appearing irregularly in most runs. 

ECM never develops the HP after Sat 15th and by Tue 18th is showing slack LP instead centred N Ireland

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You do realise that Chingford doesn't equate to the whole of the UK? You may not have had much on your house, but the last time I checked, the UK was slightly larger than Chingford.

Here it has been very wet this week, and looks exceptionally so tomorrow, along with large swathes of the UK. Flooding a very real possibility too with upwards of 100mm being forecast in some parts of Wales.

Are you sure? How much rain have you measured this week?

Here we've seen 11mm today which is less than half what I'd (half) hoped we would see. The dry spell hangs on here, and all I expect this week is the odd light shower.

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Are you sure? How much rain have you measured this week?

Here we've seen 11mm today which is less than half what I'd (half) hoped we would see. The dry spell hangs on here, and all I expect this week is the odd light shower.

Yes, I'm sure. It may have been very localised, but we had 12mm on Monday during that stormy system, and a further 10mm on Tuesday (mostly in one heavy/torrential shower admittedly).

Moving on to today, we have measured 11mm since 3.30am and it's still pouring, and so that's 30-plus mm so far this week and a lot more to come today.

 

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Yes, I'm sure. It may have been very localised, but we had 12mm on Monday during that stormy system, and a further 10mm on Tuesday (mostly in one heavy/torrential shower admittedly).

Moving on to today, we have measured 11mm since 3.30am and it's still pouring, and so that's 30-plus mm so far this week and a lot more to come today.

 

 

Rain band starting to clear out of the SE already. Dry by noon?

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Recent Arpege forecasts were spot on for here. 10.4mm so far today. I put down the Evergreen yesterday on the basis of 11mm falling from this event.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/hourly-weather-forecast.aspx?loc=Berkhamsted

 

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Here in Fulham the rain has cleared and it is starting to slowly brighten up. Now for the warming trend promised by the MO. Looking further ahead will the forecast revert back to the current cold conditions I wonder especially with the jet running to the south of us or are we now settling into a warmer new airflow removing this cold pool which has languished over the UK for weeks now?

Here in Fulham the rain has cleared and it is starting to slowly brighten up. Now for the warming trend promised by the MO. Looking further ahead will the forecast revert back to the current cold conditions I wonder especially with the jet running to the south of us or are we now settling into a warmer new airflow removing this cold pool which has languished over the UK for weeks now?

I like to think so but surely it can't revert to the numbing low dewpoints we've had for so long.  

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Frustrating model watching at the moment if it’s dry and settled weather you’re after. 

There is often plenty of promise in the GFS operational runs, for HP to push in, often supported with a number of the GEFS, but the signal isn’t consistent, nor are the improvements getting any closer, they’re doggedly sticking well into FI. 

The ECM has never really been on board either , and today we have this at the very end of the run, supported quite nicely by the mean, sadly. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

I’d suggest we’re stuck in this cool and unsettled spell for a little while yet.

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Frustrating model watching at the moment if it’s dry and settled weather you’re after. 

There is often plenty of promise in the GFS operational runs, for HP to push in, often supported with a number of the GEFS, but the signal isn’t consistent, nor are the improvements getting any closer, they’re doggedly sticking well into FI. 

The ECM has never really been on board either , and today we have this at the very end of the run, supported quite nicely by the mean, sadly. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_240_1.png

I’d suggest we’re stuck in this cool and unsettled spell for a little while yet.

I'm afraid so Joe. I know my views aren't well received, but I honestly do think the pattern has been set for the summer. I don't want to be accused of writing off a whole season before it has started, but I am and always have been a believer in pattern matching of sorts, and also a big believer that you can get a general gist of a seasonal pattern in advance of the season commencing. 

I don't get a good feeling about the forthcoming months at all. We are also way overdue a very poor summer as the last really poor one was 2012, and so I am afraid I would not be at all surprised if 2021 is indeed a washout.

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Rain today decent but shortlived. Nothing like the epic “copious rainfall” we were promised on here.

Sun now shining. Looks like bang average spring weather down here to me, in the model outlook.

Good growing weather at long last. I hope members won’t be writing off summer based on the conditions on 8 May, yet I fear that is exactly what will happen.

Average conditions to come. Just normal.

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Rain today decent but shortlived. Nothing like the epic “copious rainfall” we were promised on here.

Sun now shining. Looks like bang average spring weather down here to me, in the model outlook.

Good growing weather at long last. I hope members won’t be writing off summer based on the conditions on 8 May, yet I fear that is exactly what will happen.

Average conditions to come. Just normal.

Where precipitation is concerned it’s brave to make any promises.  I treat all future weather predictions as forecasts - helps ease the pain when they don’t work out...

Rain in the models every day here for the foreseeable future and even average temperatures will help the garden catch up.👍

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The models remain in a very unsettled and largely cool state today. Absolutely no sign of a pattern change and the back end of May is now coming into view.

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The models remain in a very unsettled and largely cool state today. Absolutely no sign of a pattern change and the back end of May is now coming into view.

I think the change is from cold to cool. To be fair, we have had rain here (nearly 40mm this month now), but without much more droughty conditions could easily return. I dug some ground early yesterday and it was dusty a foot down.

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Both the ECM and GFS ensembles look ok average at best, but the weather is unlikely to become good with so much HLB still happening and there no sign of it stopping any time soon. 

As for writing off Summer in early May it's the equivalent of writing off winter in early November.  2 weeks is about as far as we can ever look and its looking mixed. 

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Both the ECM and GFS ensembles look ok average at best, but the weather is unlikely to become good with so much HLB still happening and there no sign of it stopping any time soon. 

As for writing off Summer in early May it's the equivalent of writing off winter in early November.  2 weeks is about as far as we can ever look and its looking mixed. 

I agree writing off summer in May is a bit ridiculous, but I honestly think patterns for forthcoming seasons set up early, and this pattern looks locked in to me. In other words, a propensity of northern blocking and southerly tracking jet. Never good news in summer.

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I agree writing off summer in May is a bit ridiculous, but I honestly think patterns for forthcoming seasons set up early, and this pattern looks locked in to me. In other words, a propensity of northern blocking and southerly tracking jet. Never good news in summer.

The HLB pattern has already been here for 6 weeks. I think the chances of it lasting until June are unlikely let alone August. 

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For a more general look around:

16-dayer - weather getting milder, with 'summer colours' reaching the Channel in week 2. Stillcool out to N Norwayand Finland but the blue for day-night below zero has just about gone. Rain persisting for both weeks over NW Britain (not that the SE is entirely dry) and across to Norway, while France, which has a wet week to start with, dries up.

GFS - current LP slowly fills in situ while HP builds on either side of the UK but is finally gone by Sat 15th. Then the Azores high tries to build in with some success for the SE but a series of small Atlantic depressions affect the NW at first and later (Fri 14th) the W. Finally Sun 23rd a larger depression appears over Ireland Sun 23rd 985mb, bringing up a plume which just misses the UK in favour of Holland, and then moves NE.  

GEFS - after this weekend, close to norm or a bit below throughout (op & control show warm outliers later). Rain on and off for most of the period.

EcM - downplays the Azores HP and allows the Atlantic LPs to take a more S-ly track finishing with Wed 19th 1010mb Irish Sea in the middle of a large cool pool. 

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I agree writing off summer in May is a bit ridiculous, but I honestly think patterns for forthcoming seasons set up early, and this pattern looks locked in to me. In other words, a propensity of northern blocking and southerly tracking jet. Never good news in summer.

1975 just called to say you're being ridiculous...

 

1975 just called to say you're being ridiculous...

Taking one year out of 400 plus years is not a valid argument.

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Taking one year out of 400 plus years is not a valid argument.

1983 would like a word too. May was horrendous but July had the 2nd highest monthly CET of all time.

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