Onwards...

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Still several teasing runs about cold temps reaching the UK in the second week of March, but not the deep unfettered Siberian cold some models hinted at a few days ago. Still not much consistency or alignment though on any outcome.

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Just read the article about the 270 mile snow bomb forecast by WX for the 9th.  Love these daft headlines, but - despite their selective view of the most extreme model runs, the ECM and several GFS runs do indicate a cold incursion at this date. 

Still like the Marie Celeste right now in this thread. Has something happened without my noticing - like Chris Kamara on sky sports with the red card? 

I know it’s spring and the birds are tweeting, and my eyes are streaming with the tree pollen, but the weather gets quite spectacular at this time of year. I remember going to a car boot sale once near Red Lodge, and on the way back, stopped at the supermarket (I guess this was circa 2002), and it was late March/ early April, and a sunny, mild morning of about 12 degrees C, changed to a leaden sky, and fine rain started - as we sat in the coffee shop. The rain got heavier, and turned to soft hail. After another 5 minutes of this, the hail started to turn the pavement white and flakes of snow joined in. 10 minutes later it was a raging blizzard. A covering of snow ensued - and then the sun came out and up the temperatures came again, but what a spectacle it was. Dramatic. 

So is the quietness just winter fatigue?  Lots to interest the model watch seems to me at least....

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Seems like that cold Siberian air does reach us - via the north this time - but not for long - as modelled.: Greater alignment on this for the first time this morning, but nothing certain yet at 240 hours, but strange just how the models backed right away from this for a period. 

Perhaps now we are seeing the 3rd SSW event being modelled and its profound influence is now showing, albeit that there have always been a few perts on all the models providing this cold incursion, though no model would settle on any cold conclusion for more than 1 run. 

This time the ecm has been the most consistent of any, and the GEM, which modelled the last cold spell best, has had little time for this potential one. 

The GFS OP seems to tease the real cold close to the UK, but only brings sub -5 (850hpa) air over us. Several perts are more bullish.

I have a week off for gardening next week - dry and mild, and for work reasons, had been thinking of postponing this break to the following week, but now wont, as the weather now looks to turn colder, wetter and possibly snowier, despite it late season credentials...a spell of decent cold is still possible.

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Very cold ECM this morning but mildest GEFS I've seen in awhile. 

 

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What are your thoughts Brian, Doc, Ally and Gandalf etc - have seen the last breath of that SSW? The timing seems about right - 7th - 9th of March? 

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Jetstream  running rather chaotically to the N of UK until Tue 9th when a southern branch develops and  takes over, at first a conventional W-ly flow (but over Spain); however soon winding up into a major loop around the UK Sun 14th, the UK being under the LP to the N of the jet. (Yes, definite pattern change around the 9th - I say nothing about SSW influence).

GFS - HP wallowing around over or close to the UK but keeping winds mostly S-ly until Thu 11th when troughs move in from the Atlantic,  with LP 980mb close to NW Scotland persisting and eventually extending to cover all UK Sun 14th (Note - later than suggested yesterday and staying close to UK rather than moving on E-wards, so no direct N-lies)

GEFS - good agreement on mild and dry to Fri 5th, poor agreement thereafter but mean temp a little below norm (conceals a main bunch close to norm with outliers all on the cold side) and a little rain from time to time. The weather breaks down a day or so earlier in Scotland and, as ever, more rain in the NW.

ECM - doesn't go so far ahead as GFS but the HP is still there at end of run Mon 8th, having in the meantime shown more tendency to ridge N-wards than GFS and at times bringing in colder air to SE England

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Only F1 but GFS showing Atlantic struggling to breakthrough similar to recent Buchan spell breakdown.The air to east isnt as frigid as then so hence going for slider, be typical if that pattern occurs...

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What are your thoughts Brian, Doc, Ally and Gandalf etc - have seen the last breath of that SSW? The timing seems about right - 7th - 9th of March? 

 

Well I think technically the last SSW was less than a month ago so as you say the timing is right for favourable blocking.  ECM is very blocked this morning and looks like a significant cold spell on the way . UKMO looks similar at 144h.

 ECM mean looks less keen on a cold spell but is it a case of the ensembles needing to catch up with the Op.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=192&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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Interesting ECM op again this morning I see

T168 has -5 uppers arriving down here and -11 uppers by T240, albeit with the HP toppling south. GEFS does have a below average bump around the same sort of time although plenty of milder runs too, with some of the colder cluster bringing in -10 uppers down here too.

It'll be interesting to see where the ECM sits in the ens later - based on last nights set it'd be at the bottom, would imagine that will be similar this morning.

I guess the quiet on here is that down south at least we need a deep cold air source for snow at this time of the year and the solar input means a lot of melting unless it's cloudy/snowing of course. Plus of course a lot of folks are looking for spring warmth. 

If nothing else cold uppers with the rapidly strengthening sun could make for some fun convection for a time depending on HP influence.

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06GFS control and several members strengthen signal for a brief NE incursion around the 6th March.
Don’t be fooled - or maybe not? 😉

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So we have a deep cold core low in W siberia that is causing cold air to pool in situ as it moves over land.

Obviously not as ideal as a long formented cold pool over more eastern parts of siberia, but still decently cold air.

 

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06GFS control and several members strengthen signal for a brief NE incursion around the 6th March.
Don’t be fooled - or maybe not? 😉

The 00z ECM ens show a dip for 3-4 days starting 5th March - definitely signs of a possible chilly spell but lots of options still available. 

The Op was as expected one of the colder solutions.

Something to keep an eye on at least, for those of us who aren't averse to a little spring snowfall

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Back door has been left wide open as we head into the second week of March but will the cold take advantage? GFS short ensembles appear to be showing a little more interest on the 12z!

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The 00z ECM ens show a dip for 3-4 days starting 5th March - definitely signs of a possible chilly spell but lots of options still available. 

The Op was as expected one of the colder solutions.

Something to keep an eye on at least, for those of us who aren't averse to a little spring snowfall

 

I can't afford to be fussy and March has previously brought some epic snowfall down here!!

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ECM mean now down to lowest it's been for 5th to 8th March although absolute lowest is a touch warmer than some of the preceding runs. Overall that suggests growing confidence in a colder shot as HP develops North of the UK and sinks south allowing a temporary shot of colder air. 

The cold ramper in me is looking for the temporary nature of the cold to be prolonged, although not too much sign of that ATM and a return to average is more favoured IMO. That said there's a fair bit of cooler scatter suggesting mild isn't necessarily the form horse at present.

ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for Tunbridge Wells District | Meteologix.com

(The site above which I use a fair bit has changed to individual members from shading FWIW, will have to see if I like it more or less!).

I guess for balance I should mention the T2M temps suggest a mild or even slightly warm day next Wednesday as the HP develops - 14c in light winds will feel really nice down here before the currently projected cool down on the Op. 

I know some folk lauded the GEM as the best model in the last cold spell but I followed the ECM as my primary model and that was consistent in a cold spell. As the current colder signal is fairly recent I'll reserve judgement but at this stage a fairly cold  3-4 days is looking like a reasonable bet, longer term set up TBC.

Whether that verifies and whether it's cold enough for anyone to see a reasonable snowfall is very much 'up in the air' at the moment

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GFSP manages to shuffle the pack and delivers a very narrow flow of -12 uppers for a few days.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the signal for a cold snap continue to strengthen over the weekend.

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All good feedback and good to see Q still interested, although his Baffin Bay cold pool remains stubbornly in place and pushes cyclogensis east, but does this divert the cold pool to our east...? It’s a close call.  Good to see DEW’s summary again, and Dave’s thoughts too: agree the ecm has been very consistent lately.

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http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4 Temp distribution not really changing over the next two weeks - UK a bit above average at least for 1st week and much of Scandinavia more so, cold stuff staying well to E. Also very dry with  rain just fringing the SW

GFS - HP visiting all parts of UK and environs in turn to Tue 9th when LP arises on Atlantic 980 mb some distance SW of Ireland and weakens as it slides into S France, presumably throwing the odd trough NE-wards towards UK. HP re-establishes over Scotland but weaker, and then there's a reload of the LP 975mb Mon 15th but this time only just off SW Ireland.

Note that while the LP around the 9th has been forecast for some time now, it's track has changed quite dramatically from running across UK to Baltic, then more or less stationary, now sliding to S France

GEFS - mild to Fri 5th, cool to Tue 9th, then pretty good agreement as far as FI predictions  go with temps a little below seasonal norm to Mon 15th. Fewer really cold outliers than yesterday but some to be found in the N. Rain after Tue 9th but not much in the NE

ECM - begins to differ from GFS around Sun 7th, eventually (Tue 9th) throwing up a strong ridge from the Azores which blocks any LP from the Atlantic (definite contrast to GFS) and brings in a light NE-ly flow as hinted at yesterday. Notably more stable in its forecasts than GFS

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Standard fare for March. HP dominated with an Arctic flow coming in from the north-east later next week. Uppers nothing special but risk of wintry showers in the east and night frosts. Beyond that typical scatter