https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_2.png  in March?

On a plus side more generally the outlook seems much drier for almost everyone. For example the GFS 00z op had 2mm of rain here in the next 15 days.

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Standard fare for March. HP dominated with an Arctic flow coming in from the north-east later next week. Uppers nothing special but risk of wintry showers in the east and night frosts. Beyond that typical scatter

Yes, the weather in March can oscillate between near-summerlike and near-winter.  Personally I hope it all gets pushed east but the models do seem to be homing in on a cold incursion from the NE quadrant later next week.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_2.png  in March?

Me? I'd be happy to have it any time of the year TBH.

I don't expect the -10s to get down here, but a continuation of the weather we're having today down here (frost at night, sunny days) would be absolutely fine by me!

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_2.png  in March?

On a plus side more generally the outlook seems much drier for almost everyone. For example the GFS 00z op had 2mm of rain here in the next 15 days.

Sorry Doc, like Retron, I do too, because March, just as Gandalf added, brings such contrasts, that it makes it exciting weather watching, because all 4 seasons can occur within 24 hours, but the blocked pattern, be it mild or be it cold, is very welcome after all that dark, cold, wet weather - just the wrong side of marginal for snow, which we had. Nothing to complain about this winter though TBH - because I had my snow fix 3 times, the last was especially cold, fluffy, alpine stuff - the like of which I have not seen since 2010-13, and before that 1991.

Bring it all on....

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Sorry Doc, like Retron, I do too, because March, just as Gandalf added, brings such contrasts, that it makes it exciting weather watching, because all 4 seasons can occur within 24 hours, but the blocked pattern, be it mild or be it cold, is very welcome after all that dark, cold, wet weather - just the wrong side of marginal for snow, which we had. Nothing to complain about this winter though TBH - because I had my snow fix 3 times, the last was especially cold, fluffy, alpine stuff - the like of which I have not seen since 2010-13, and before that 1991.

Bring it all on....

Fair enough 

It’s “only” 12°C outside here but with calm conditions and clear blue skies I would take this every day for the time of year. 

On topic, I think the current outlook is fairly anticyclonic which is good (cool or mild).

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Fair enough 

It’s “only” 12°C outside here but with calm conditions and clear blue skies I would take this every day for the time of year. 

On topic, I think the current outlook is fairly anticyclonic which is good (cool or mild).

It's remarkable how quickly the ground is drying out round here; a reflection of the predominantly dry conditions for the last several weeks.

The milder weather and sunshine certainly brings a feel of Spring, especially as the sun strengthens. Little more than 3 weeks to the Spring Equinox.

The ECM 00z clusters show just one scenario from Thursday to Saturday: anticyclonic cold N/NE flow. But from Sunday into Tuesday there's about a 50/50 split between continuing cool/cold anticyclonic and milder but changeable. Beyond that it looks like a trend towards changeable and milder generally.

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The operational runs so far this evening keep the HP cell close to UK shores next weekend meaning a happy and welcome continuation of the dry, sunny and settled if not rather chilly theme. I suspect there are a few wintry NE'ly options among the ensembles though.  

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_2.png  in March?

On a plus side more generally the outlook seems much drier for almost everyone. For example the GFS 00z op had 2mm of rain here in the next 15 days.

Indeed - the current weather is great. Frosty mornings followed by mild sunny days. Unfortunately with the winds turning E/NE over the coming week, this lovely mild sunshine will be replaced by horrible chilly low cloud rubbish. 

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 Indeed - the current weather is great. Frosty mornings followed by mild sunny days. Unfortunately with the winds turning E/NE over the coming week, this lovely mild sunshine will be replaced by horrible chilly low cloud rubbish. 

Not necessarily so if the origin is arctic or polar. 

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Apart from Sunday 24th January, I can say in all honesty that the current spell of weather is the best of the winter IMHO. This for me is top end stuff which is only matched by a genuine cold spell (2018, 2009/10) or a big and severe winter storm (but only because that gets the site a lot of traffic). 

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Good to see some time can be spent preparing the garden without hat and gloves. I never cast a clout until June though!

Some stonkers appearing in the GEM ens now. Plant killers

 

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ECM cold, looks like UKMO was an outlier

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  Yes - the Quantum scenario is still lurking in the models at relatively close range, and I would not rule it out: Some first shoots pushing up of some of the herbaceous plants, with some brave bees, and I hope we get the cold soon now and be done with it, because last year late frosts were indeed lethal for some plants, and it took half the summer for my Mulberry tree to recover its first leaves being blackened by frost. I wouldn’t mind a cold bout now, lovely to see the first brimstone butterflies, chiff-chaffs and bee flies - but  a snow flurry would be great too, so long as we have bright sunny arctic air: Good chance of that, as hat burst from the NE should keep the uppers cold and dry...hopefully clear....

Some stonkers appearing in the GEM ens now. Plant killers

 

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Quite a dramatic development in week 2 for pptn on http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 - yesterday the rain was just for Cormwall, today expect floods for the whole of the UK. Presumably this will keep the cold air well to the NE  (but it's still lurking) at bay, at least for now.

GFS - HP hangs around all this week (moves a little to the NW on Fri 5th with brief NE-lies ) but has flattened out by Sun 7th. GFS still can't get a handle on the breakdown from Tue 9th - today's version has well-defined LPs from the Atlantic crossing the N of the UK and stalling over W Russia as they come up against a block by the Urals (Wed 10th 990 mb N Sea, Thu 11th 965mb Hebrides, Sat 13th 980mb E Anglia, Tue 16th 985mb E Scotland, the last trailing N gales as HP blocks the Atlantic)

GEFS - present mild spell ends Fri 5th with quite a sharp dip to cold (5 or 6 C below norm in SE, less marked elsewhere) slowly recovering but staying cool to Tue 16th, and quite good agreement between runs. Rain, small spike Thu 4th in SE and then generally from Mon 8th. 

ECM - similar to GFS for this week but runs the first of the train of LPs further south (990 mb Brest Tue 9th and then down to S France) thus at the end of its run looking more like yesterday's GFS .

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The signal for a chilly spell is waxing and waning and as such nothing out of the ordinary. From Day 10 and a much more lively westerly flow is the form horse.

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That's an impressive drop - though 850's aren't everything as the last 4 or 5 days show , we have had the longest run of frosts for a while , the lawn has been continuously white as well as the cars 

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Indeed - the current weather is great. Frosty mornings followed by mild sunny days. Unfortunately with the winds turning E/NE over the coming week, this lovely mild sunshine will be replaced by horrible chilly low cloud rubbish. 

It has already here. A stark contrast from the last few days. No frosts here of course, being in the South. Don't get many these days. Give it ten years and we'll be on Frost watch and getting excited if one appears at FI  !

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It has already here. A stark contrast from the last few days. No frosts here of course, being in the South. Don't get many these days. Give it ten years and we'll be on Frost watch and getting excited if one appears at FI  !

Had temps here of below -1 for the last 3 mornings and I'm not a million miles away from you. 

Another beautiful day here with plenty of sunshine. Main factor for me is its dry, whether it turns colder or not, it's still looking dry. After that, too far out to take much notice of.

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That's an impressive drop - though 850's aren't everything as the last 4 or 5 days show , we have had the longest run of frosts for a while , the lawn has been continuously white as well as the cars 

Depending on air source this may end up rather dull. This morning was a classic example with low cloud and no frost despite it being sub-zero earlier under clear skies. Having lived in Essex, Spring was a time that frequently felt unpleasant with any North Sea influence