The parallel is astounding -16 850s into EA by +180!

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The parallel is astounding -16 850s into EA by +180!

Indeed. Madness!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=1&runpara=1&carte=6

 

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Such drama. And at the same time I’m watching a blob crossing over the hills.

What exciting lives we lead. 😂😂😂

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Yes it is interesting but it (GFSP/v16) is not even an operational model yet. I would take such evolutions with a huge pinch of salt. The breakdown this weekend is still on course (slowly) to something less cold. It may, further down the line, get cold again but there’s a lot of water/snow melt to pass under the bridge first.

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Yes it is interesting but it (GFSP/v16) is not even an operational model yet. I would take such evolutions with a huge pinch of salt. The breakdown this weekend is still on course (slowly) to something less cold. It may, further down the line, get cold again but there’s a lot of water/snow melt to pass under the bridge first.

Yeah sensible approach. I wont dismiss it, but equally I'm not buying into either.

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The old GFS just 30c warmer .

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&time=279&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

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Pretty much a total u-turn on the UKM extended over just three issues. That didn’t take long.

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The parallel is astounding -16 850s into EA by +180!

I fully expect it is on the money.  Feeling confident!

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what’s the uturn to? I’m seeing quite a few different meto forecasts on their different channels 😂

 

Pretty much a total u-turn on the UKM extended over just three issues. That didn’t take long.

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I fully expect it is on the money.  Feeling confident!

 You left out ==> 

It will be interesting as ever to see what the ECM 12z shows. If it is remotely like the GFSP I will raise one perhaps even two eyebrows.

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 You left out ==> 

It will be interesting as ever to see what the ECM 12z shows. If it is remotely like the GFSP I will raise one perhaps even two eyebrows.

Having snow falling on snow presently is giving me a boost.  I think the models are going to bring severe cold back before the last week of the month, maybe sooner a la //.

 

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yeh as with others, I smell something is up.. I can see the cold winning out

I just havent seen a run with the atlantic steamrolling in.. every run is clipping us with the Pressure to our east re-establishing quickly.

As much as theres chatter of "how much snow will there be in the breakdown" its quite conceivable there will be none, and we get another week of dry with very cold winds... which would make sense from a balance perspective... january was one of the wettest on record... would make sense Feb was one of the driest

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Having snow falling on snow presently is giving me a boost.  I think the models are going to bring severe cold back before the last week of the month, maybe sooner a la //.

 

Fingers crossed and I am glad to hear you have snow falling. 

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what’s the uturn to? I’m seeing quite a few different meto forecasts on their different channels 😂

 

 

Early period UKM text. More or less removed all reference to easterly type now, and they’re probably quite right given the significant majority of output brings the Atlantic in next week.

If the GFS parallel is right I’ll eat the contents of my wheely bin.

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Early period UKM text. More or less removed all reference to easterly type now, and they’re probably quite right given the significant majority of output brings the Atlantic in next week.

If the GFS parallel is right I’ll eat the contents of my wheely bin.

Dinner is served

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Early period UKM text. More or less removed all reference to easterly type now, and they’re probably quite right given the significant majority of output brings the Atlantic in next week.

If the GFS parallel is right I’ll eat the contents of my wheely bin.

I guess rubbish input beats rubbish output? 

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Amid all the scatter, one trend to pick out is for high pressure to dominate the UK weather for the second half of the month, I think. Whether that is a cold high with a bit of easterly influence or a mild high with some early spring sunshine is open to debate, but I rather doubt we will be seeing much of the Z word for a couple of weeks at least.

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Early period UKM text. More or less removed all reference to easterly type now, and they’re probably quite right given the significant majority of output brings the Atlantic in next week.

If the GFS parallel is right I’ll eat the contents of my wheely bin.

The Met are certainly bullish with the mild. The auto forecast here has 10C for Monday and 11C for Tuesday; GFS ensemble has a median value of 3.6C and 6.0C respectively, and even the mildest member doesn't reach quite that high (9.4C and 10.3C are the highest).

 

Mind you the Met went for 7C for this Friday just a couple of days ago, and have since revised it down to 1C. 

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Amid all the scatter, one trend to pick out is for high pressure to dominate the UK weather for the second half of the month, I think. Whether that is a cold high with a bit of easterly influence or a mild high with some early spring sunshine is open to debate, but I rather doubt we will be seeing much of the Z word for a couple of weeks at least.

Something like Feb 2008 would be nice - high diurnal ranges with mild days and cold nights.

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A -17C dewpoint showing up on GFS 12z for midday Saturday

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