The Weather Outlook

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Quantum
10 February 2021 16:10:48

12Z para is particularly interesting.

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
10 February 2021 16:12:28

Mild air never reaches the SE for the GFS op

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
10 February 2021 16:15:29

The GFS para is great.

Mild air never arrives at all.

By 144h source is Germany/Poland/W Russia for everywhere except the SW and NI.

850s are still <0 so snowfall is still possible.

 

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
10 February 2021 16:17:11

GFS12z does it too, just takes longer and mild air mixes out surface cold for most parts except the SE.

Buckle down folks, it ain't over yet.

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
10 February 2021 16:18:13

GEM is a massive upgrade on the 0Z and probably the 6Z too.

Heads down!

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
10 February 2021 16:19:28

DEEP COLD RETURNS. WITH A DIRECT PATH TO THE -20C UPPERS!!!!

Image result for its not over avatar

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Rob K
10 February 2021 16:21:37

The GFS para is great.

Mild air never arrives at all.

By 144h source is Germany/Poland/W Russia for everywhere except the SW and NI.

850s are still <0 so snowfall is still possible.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Quantum 

Parallel repels two attacks from the Atlantic and leaves some snow for many in the west.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Ally Pally Snowman
10 February 2021 16:22:42

Para going for a true Beast as early as this time next week. 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=1&runpara=1

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Quantum
10 February 2021 16:23:07

OK so this might be crazy but that shortwave could become a medicane.

Conditions are prime for it.

For medicanes FI is literally 12 hours.

And medicanes have an outflow, so they do interact with the environment.
Could a medicane save us?

 

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

Quantum
10 February 2021 16:24:15

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

25/26 (850hpa temp) 11 days snow/sleet falling

18/11 (-4) 19/11 (-6) 20/11 (-6) 01/01 (-7) 04/01 (-10) 10/01 (-7) 11/01 (-3) 30/01 (-1) 13/02 (-6) 15/02 (-4) 18/02 (-6)

24/25 10d

18/11 (-6) 19/11 (-6) 23/11 (-2) 22/12 (-5) 04/01 (-5) 05/01 (0)14/02 (0) 15/02 (0)12/03 (-6) 13/03 (-6)

23/24 8d

29/11 (-6) 30/11 (-6) 02/12 (-5) 03/12 (-5) 04/12 (-3) 16/01 (-3) 18/01 (-8)08/02 (-5)

22/23 7d

18/12 (-1)06/03 (-6) 08/03 (-8) 09/03 (-6) 10/03 (-8) 11/03 (-5) 14/03 (-6)

21/22 12d

squish
10 February 2021 16:26:05
The parallel is astounding -16 850s into EA by +180!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
10 February 2021 16:26:32

The parallel is astounding -16 850s into EA by +180!

Originally Posted by: squish 

Indeed. Madness!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=1&runpara=1&carte=6

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Joe Bloggs
10 February 2021 16:29:52

Such drama. And at the same time I’m watching a blob crossing over the hills.

What exciting lives we lead. 😂😂😂

doctormog
10 February 2021 16:32:21
Yes it is interesting but it (GFSP/v16) is not even an operational model yet. I would take such evolutions with a huge pinch of salt. The breakdown this weekend is still on course (slowly) to something less cold. It may, further down the line, get cold again but there’s a lot of water/snow melt to pass under the bridge first.
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Snow Hoper
10 February 2021 16:46:20

Yes it is interesting but it (GFSP/v16) is not even an operational model yet. I would take such evolutions with a huge pinch of salt. The breakdown this weekend is still on course (slowly) to something less cold. It may, further down the line, get cold again but there’s a lot of water/snow melt to pass under the bridge first.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yeah sensible approach. I wont dismiss it, but equally I'm not buying into either.

Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.

Home : Mid Suffolk.

48m Asl

Ally Pally Snowman
10 February 2021 16:50:59
nsrobins
10 February 2021 16:54:28
Pretty much a total u-turn on the UKM extended over just three issues. That didn’t take long.
Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Whether Idle
10 February 2021 17:00:01

The parallel is astounding -16 850s into EA by +180!

Originally Posted by: squish 

I fully expect it is on the money.  Feeling confident!

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
MStewart
10 February 2021 17:03:07

what’s the uturn to? I’m seeing quite a few different meto forecasts on their different channels 😂

 


Pretty much a total u-turn on the UKM extended over just three issues. That didn’t take long.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Mark

Twickenham

12m ASL

doctormog
10 February 2021 17:03:11

 

I fully expect it is on the money.  Feeling confident!

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 You left out ==> 

It will be interesting as ever to see what the ECM 12z shows. If it is remotely like the GFSP I will raise one perhaps even two eyebrows.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Whether Idle
10 February 2021 17:06:24

 

 You left out ==> 

It will be interesting as ever to see what the ECM 12z shows. If it is remotely like the GFSP I will raise one perhaps even two eyebrows.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Having snow falling on snow presently is giving me a boost.  I think the models are going to bring severe cold back before the last week of the month, maybe sooner a la //.

 

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Russwirral
10 February 2021 17:09:04
yeh as with others, I smell something is up.. I can see the cold winning out

I just havent seen a run with the atlantic steamrolling in.. every run is clipping us with the Pressure to our east re-establishing quickly.

As much as theres chatter of "how much snow will there be in the breakdown" its quite conceivable there will be none, and we get another week of dry with very cold winds... which would make sense from a balance perspective... january was one of the wettest on record... would make sense Feb was one of the driest

Weather station:

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IWIRRAL24#history 

doctormog
10 February 2021 17:09:11

 

Having snow falling on snow presently is giving me a boost.  I think the models are going to bring severe cold back before the last week of the month, maybe sooner a la //.

 

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

Fingers crossed and I am glad to hear you have snow falling. 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

nsrobins
10 February 2021 17:11:30

what’s the uturn to? I’m seeing quite a few different meto forecasts on their different channels 😂

 

 

Originally Posted by: MStewart 

Early period UKM text. More or less removed all reference to easterly type now, and they’re probably quite right given the significant majority of output brings the Atlantic in next week.

If the GFS parallel is right I’ll eat the contents of my wheely bin.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Whether Idle
10 February 2021 17:13:15

 

Early period UKM text. More or less removed all reference to easterly type now, and they’re probably quite right given the significant majority of output brings the Atlantic in next week.

If the GFS parallel is right I’ll eat the contents of my wheely bin.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Dinner is served

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.

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