The usual ‘the further North & East you are the better scenario’...........

A bit of NIMBYism creeping in from me.....it’s the 3 days of snowing without hardly any settling which has done it 😬😬

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Both GFS op and parallel run seem to want to bring in a spell of snow up here off the North Sea on this run on Friday. The Met Office forecasts says "cold with a few snow showers". Time will tell.

Theres a yellow warning for you Doc for Thurs & Fri

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Theres a yellow warning for you Doc for Thurs & Fri

Yes, I noticed that and was wondering if it was associated with the same little system.

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Of course, the outcome that would suit both those in the western half of the UK AND keep the SE'ers happy, is the GFS 6z 

This has Saturday's push from the west bringing snow to the western half, then fizzling, followed by the second push on Monday doing similar. The southern half of the front is showing as les snowy and more rainy, so it's a bit cruel on those in the SE and S Wales, but N Wales, W Midlands, NW England, west half of Scotland and NI could have it good. That second front then fizzled on the Tuesday, with the block reasserting itself. The SE/E never warm up.

 

The precipitation animation for the Op run is fascinating. Repeated failed attempts by the Atlantic to break through, each front stalls over the Western UK and fizzles out before being pushed back.

If that was to verify, some western areas could really accumulate snow over the 14 day period ..... 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=4&time=0&run=6&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6

 

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They're extremely hit & miss - and for here at least, most/all in the past couple of decades at least have been as disappointing as you describe, although I've got memories of a few of snowy breakdowns in the 80's and 90's.

I therefore view the GFS forecast with scepticism, more in hope than expectation. As someone whose snowfalls this spell have been pitifully small (with little prospect of that changing in the current set-up), a snowy breakdown and seeing snow pile up for 24-36 hours before the rain moves in (all per GFS) is better than a continuation of cold and predominantly dry. I appreciate those who've fared better for snow won't agree.

The worst letdown was on NYE 2000 (into 2001). Thick snow on the ground already from a few nights previous, heavily frozen. An active front coming in from the west. BBC forecasting several hours of heavy snow starting around 8-9pm as the front hits the cold air (and you always hope they're underestimating the cold block). I could almost see the headlines of thousands of NYE revellers having to spend the night in clubs and bars as snow chaos reigned. Here, it snowed for about 5 mins, another 10 or so mins of sleet, then the heavy rain set about washing away the standing snow. 

 

One of best snowy breakdowns of recent times around here was the 25th January 2013 one. Snowed heavily that Friday night, chaos on the M6 around Wigan and the snow was still on the ground until the following Saturday afternoon.

A lot of cold spells don't end with a snowy breakdown. December 2010 didn't here, the great snow of 5th/6th February 1996, that wasn't folllowed by a snowy breakdown. No snowy breakdown to the early January 1997 cold spell...

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Nice to see the parallel back with a tasty op in the short/medium term . GEFS also show a good block re-establishing in many runs.

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One of best snowy breakdowns of recent times around here was the 25th January 2013 one. Snowed heavily that Friday night, chaos on the M6 around Wigan and the snow was still on the ground until the following Saturday afternoon.

A lot of cold spells don't end with a snowy breakdown. December 2010 didn't here, the great snow of 5th/6th February 1996, that wasn't folllowed by a snowy breakdown. No snowy breakdown to the early January 1997 cold spell...

 

I've never really viewed the 25th Jan 13 as a snowy breakdown, but I guess it was the end of a briefish cold snap. It was fantastic here - I've still got some screengrabs from traffic cams on the M62 and M6 near here, which showed the fantastic conditions (one is possibly my favourite snow pic ever!). I'll try and dig them out. The snow was still on the ground here a couple of days.

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The latest model performance stats show a general worsening in the last week at Day 8: down to around 60-70%, 10 points worse than the middle of January.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png 

Probably worth being in mind when trying to decipher what's coming next week.

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One of best snowy breakdowns of recent times around here was the 25th January 2013 one. Snowed heavily that Friday night, chaos on the M6 around Wigan and the snow was still on the ground until the following Saturday afternoon.

A lot of cold spells don't end with a snowy breakdown. December 2010 didn't here, the great snow of 5th/6th February 1996, that wasn't folllowed by a snowy breakdown. No snowy breakdown to the early January 1997 cold spell...

Just goes to show how localised these things are - 25th January 2013 was bobbins here. Upper air temps rose above freezing and the snow turned to sleet and ice pellets very quickly. 

Sorry off topic. 

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Just goes to show how localised these things are - 25th January 2013 was bobbins here. Upper air temps rose above freezing and the snow turned to sleet and ice pellets very quickly. 

Sorry off topic. 

 

A really weird one, to have cold in the west of the region and mild in the east.

It was much heavier snow than forecast, and caused traffic chaos that Friday evening. Here's the traffic cam pic I mentioned. Can you spot what's wrong in the picture? 

 

The M6 was closed as there was a complete snarl-up after the next junction. We had level snow around 15cm.

We also had a fall the preceding Friday, although not as deep (10cm'ish), which Manchester also missed out on. My boss (lived near Davyhulme Golf Club) had barely any snow and didn't believe me either time until I showed him the pics. 

 

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A really weird one, to have cold in the west of the region and mild in the east.

It was much heavier snow than forecast, and caused traffic chaos that Friday evening. Here's the traffic cam pic I mentioned. Can you spot what's wrong in the picture? 

 

The M6 was closed as there was a complete snarl-up after the next junction. We had level snow around 15cm.

We also had a fall the preceding Friday, although not as deep (10cm'ish), which Manchester also missed out on. My boss (lived near Davyhulme Golf Club) had barely any snow and didn't believe me either time until I showed him the pics. 

 

Brilliant pic Saint. Your boss had the same issue as me - we were under a rain shadow from the Pennines for all of your 2013 snow events. We had virtually no snow that winter here. 

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Late Feb repeat anyone?

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Yes, I noticed that and was wondering if it was associated with the same little system.

interesting indeed, no mention of snow on the BBC forecast app for anywhere in Moray, yet a warning ? At least it’s showing sleet showers at 0C for Aberdeen airport on Friday 😄, all very strange. 

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GEM6Z is an upgrade on the 0Z.

vs

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interesting indeed, no mention of snow on the BBC forecast app for anywhere in Moray, yet a warning ? At least it’s showing sleet showers at 0C for Aberdeen airport on Friday 😄, all very strange. 

 

Yes, that is a bit of worry (that the milder t850s of around -9ºC to -11ºC on some of the models) and may mean sleet is more likely than snow. If that was the case I would rather it stayed sunny. 

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In terms of blue vs yellow airmass. On saturday at 6pm the line is in NE Sommerset, Central Wales and central NI for the 0Z.

On the 6Z its far SW cornwall, western Ireland.

Cold airmass is shifted 200+ miles further SW on the 6Z GEM compared to the 0Z GEM at T+84/90 hours.

 

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Late Feb repeat anyone?

 

I'm up for some warmth now tbh. Hoping the +10c run verifies.  

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I'm up for some warmth now tbh. Hoping the +10c run verifies.  

Light weight, im hoping winter keeps going until its time for spring

 

Light weight, im hoping winter keeps going until its time for spring

It's not been a bad spell here 5cm at peak. Sledging with the kids ,snowman built etc. But the charts looked a lot more promising.  And the fact the snow has melted so readily in such cold temperatures was a irritating surprise.  A late February freeze will have to be pretty extreme to deliver here, obviously not impossible but unlikely. 

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As for the melting of the snow (I know I brought it up again), this is due to the high level of groundwater at present due to ground saturation because of all the rain leading up to the cold snap. The groundwater acts like a giant storage heater (exacerbated by the nice and sunny days before the snap). That is why it settles on grass which is free from the ground, but paths and roads and if you look freshly plowed or non grass fields it is melting.

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