2m overnight temps from the GFSP on day 8. Chilly.

Most of the GEFS seem to be backing the op and control, and some belters like this. No point going beyond 144 at this stage

Will GEM and ECM change tonight?

Dewpoints never get above freezing on the GFS6Z.

This is a major upgrade if you want cold air at the surface.

The mild airmass never makes it.

Beast is back in business for one last fling

Bloody hell ...........here we go again 

loving the op run! Stays cold at the surface throughout and then a possible meeting of extreme airmasses

 

Bloody hell ...........here we go again 

We need to see GEM flip tonight. Its been solid about the Atlantic blasting through

Bloody hell ...........here we go again 

Looks good. Is this officially the next chase? Might be worth a punt.

It does seem more in keeping with all the blocking anomalies that have been shown over the last few weeks.

BOOM 

Thank god for friction.

If the air actually followed the isobars we'd be screwed.

 

My experience of snowy breakdowns is very poor and best avoided. Typically in the South East we have sub-zero temperatures, cloud thickening, winds picking up to make it feel very raw. This is followed by 30 minutes of light sleet/wet snow/freezing rain, which is in turn followed by a critical rise in temperature and 6 hours of cold to mild heavy rain ....

They're extremely hit & miss - and for here at least, most/all in the past couple of decades at least have been as disappointing as you describe, although I've got memories of a few of snowy breakdowns in the 80's and 90's.

I therefore view the GFS forecast with scepticism, more in hope than expectation. As someone whose snowfalls this spell have been pitifully small (with little prospect of that changing in the current set-up), a snowy breakdown and seeing snow pile up for 24-36 hours before the rain moves in (all per GFS) is better than a continuation of cold and predominantly dry. I appreciate those who've fared better for snow won't agree.

The worst letdown was on NYE 2000 (into 2001). Thick snow on the ground already from a few nights previous, heavily frozen. An active front coming in from the west. BBC forecasting several hours of heavy snow starting around 8-9pm as the front hits the cold air (and you always hope they're underestimating the cold block). I could almost see the headlines of thousands of NYE revellers having to spend the night in clubs and bars as snow chaos reigned. Here, it snowed for about 5 mins, another 10 or so mins of sleet, then the heavy rain set about washing away the standing snow. 

 

 

They're extremely hit & miss - and for here at least, most/all in the past couple of decades at least have been as disappointing as you describe, although I've got memories of a few of snowy breakdowns in the 80's and 90's.

I therefore view the GFS forecast with scepticism, more in hope than expectation. As someone whose snowfalls this spell have been pitifully small (with little prospect of that changing in the current set-up), a snowy breakdown and seeing snow pile up for 24-36 hours before the rain moves in (all per GFS) is better than a continuation of cold and predominantly dry. I appreciate those who've fared better for snow won't agree.

The worst letdown was on NYE 2000 (into 2001). Thick snow on the ground already from a few nights previous, heavily frozen. An active front coming in from the west. BBC forecasting several hours of heavy snow starting around 8-9pm as the front hits the cold air (and you always hope they're underestimating the cold block). I could almost see the headlines of thousands of NYE revellers having to spend the night in clubs and bars as snow chaos reigned. Here, it snowed for about 5 mins, another 10 or so mins of sleet, then the heavy rain set about washing away the standing snow. 

 

Of course, the outcome that would suit both those in the western half of the UK AND keep the SE'ers happy, is the GFS 6z 

This has Saturday's push from the west bringing snow to the western half, then fizzling, followed by the second push on Monday doing similar. The southern half of the front is showing as les snowy and more rainy, so it's a bit cruel on those in the SE and S Wales, but N Wales, W Midlands, NW England, west half of Scotland and NI could have it good. That second front then fizzled on the Tuesday, with the block reasserting itself. The SE/E never warm up.

 

 

Of course, the outcome that would suit both those in the western half of the UK AND keep the SE'ers happy, is the GFS 6z 

This has Saturday's push from the west bringing snow to the western half, then fizzling, followed by the second push on Monday doing similar. The southern half of the front is showing as les snowy and more rainy, so it's a bit cruel on those in the SE and S Wales, but N Wales, W Midlands, NW England, west half of Scotland and NI could have it good. That second front then fizzled on the Tuesday, with the block reasserting itself. The SE/E never warm up.

 

Assume you mean SW and S Wales!!

 

Assume you mean SW and S Wales!!

Yes. Damn these sausage-fingers 

 

 

Of course, the outcome that would suit both those in the western half of the UK AND keep the SE'ers happy, is the GFS 6z 

This has Saturday's push from the west bringing snow to the western half, then fizzling, followed by the second push on Monday doing similar. The southern half of the front is showing as les snowy and more rainy, so it's a bit cruel on those in the SE and S Wales, but N Wales, W Midlands, NW England, west half of Scotland and NI could have it good. That second front then fizzled on the Tuesday, with the block reasserting itself. The SE/E never warm up.

 

It would be incredible to have a repeat of 5th/6th Feb 96. Deep snow on Merseyside and Blackpool virtually cut off. Such a rare setup. 

That's quite a shift to prolonging the cold at the surface on the 6Z GEFS.

Today’s GFS6z is looking very good, too good almost. But I’m not convinced of a mild at.antic breakdown at the moment either.  Can’t wait to see the corresponding GEFS to see if there is greater support from other members or just a random outlier.

carol kirkwood and Thomas big hair both cautioning against the expected change to mild weather too 🙂

Those showers looks beefier for the south east today......