Looks like milder weather from the south from about the 15th is favoured now. Ecm has WAA going right through the UK.  But this should re enforce the block in about 10 days. And could lead to another significant easterly late February. 

 

ECM day 10.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

GFS day 13

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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Looking at the models today. Looks like a milder period / back to average is on course to begin at the weekend

It will have meant a solid 7 day cold spell which will have been pretty severe by UK standards

Temperatures may go above average in the SW and DD but that’s pretty standard in late February. Elsewhere it will be 5s - 9s potentially

Unfortunately we may not get a snowy end which is always a brucey bonus but the fronts look like changing the airflow significantly and once the push happens it’s a standard rain front?

Can’t discount the precipitation models showing snow but unfortunately they aren’t very accurate +24 hours

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Looks like milder weather from the south from about the 15th is favoured now. Ecm has WAA going right through the UK.  But this should re enforce the block in about 10 days. And could lead to another significant easterly late February. 

 

ECM day 10.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

GFS day 13

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=0&time=312&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

 

The WAA would help reinforce a block but where the block is reinforced to is not known. It may end up with a Central European block which would lead to a milder airflow for us or it could reinforce a block back over Scandi which would give the option you say 

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Those XC weather charts are a waste of time Darren 

Only in the sense that GFS is a waste of time - XC weather gives a useful summary of what the GFS is showing in your backyard without having to squint at dozens of charts.

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Looking across the models’ output it does seem very probable that a breakdown to milder (southerly influence) conditions will take place through the weekend. Temperatures look likely to be back into double figures in places by Tuesday. Yes, I guess things could change but at this range it is unlikely they change that much.

Spot on. With the block remaining to the east you can't rule out a return of cold down the line.

In the meantime a long fetch southerly would be a reminder that we are heading towards Spring.

The weather remains very interesting which is always good in my book 

On a different note I notice that the models are showing some form of polar low in the North Sea later today into Friday and I'm wondering if it could impact some NE parts. It got a brief mention (in terms of snow potential not mentioned as a polar low) on this morning's BBC forecast.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK06_12_1.png 

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Thought it was quiet in here then checked the ECM & GFS...........only hope is for a snowy breakdown but that’s now looking unlikely........at this stage.....

My experience of snowy breakdowns is very poor and best avoided. Typically in the South East we have sub-zero temperatures, cloud thickening, winds picking up to make it feel very raw. This is followed by 30 minutes of light sleet/wet snow/freezing rain, which is in turn followed by a critical rise in temperature and 6 hours of cold to mild heavy rain ....

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full image:https://i.ibb.co/FmgTK6h/weekendairmass.png

Where the airmass is coming from over the weekend.

The mild atlantic airmass is making very slow progress. Its the development of the med airmass (yellow) that eventually scuppers us.

Takes bloody ages though.

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My experience of snowy breakdowns is very poor and best avoided. Typically in the South East we have sub-zero temperatures, cloud thickening, winds picking up to make it feel very raw. This is followed by 30 minutes of light sleet/wet snow/freezing rain, which is in turn followed by a critical rise in temperature and 6 hours of cold to mild heavy rain ....

Best breakdown this century was from the February 2018 spell, decent day of snow from that on the Friday and even more impressive considering it was March by then.

 

My experience of snowy breakdowns is very poor and best avoided. Typically in the South East we have sub-zero temperatures, cloud thickening, winds picking up to make it feel very raw. This is followed by 30 minutes of light sleet/wet snow/freezing rain, which is in turn followed by a critical rise in temperature and 6 hours of cold to mild heavy rain ....

Indeed, snowy breakdowns are throughly miserable affairs.

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Only in the sense that GFS is a waste of time - XC weather gives a useful summary of what the GFS is showing in your backyard without having to squint at dozens of charts.

Yes I have found XCweather was always good for providing a basic easy visual map on the weather or  which you can select  a particular location.  I like the way it shows the wind direction and speed using colours. as it crosses the UK for example as I say visually effective if you just want to glance  But there are some great apps out there these days .. I have started using the weather channel ( weather.com) which provides a lot of useful location data  (just enter your postcode) .and i like the 'real time' map. but iahve also tried netweather, weather underground and accuweather.  

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GFS looks like there are conflicting signals one to retrogress and one to sink the high. If we do get a mild spell could be short lived and could still be some cold nights

Breakdown is struggling on the GFS op run, first push fizzles to nothing and there second is still in the SW on Tuesday evening.

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Monday at 3pm:

https://i.ibb.co/82MNV6B/earlynxtweekairmass.jpg 

Atlantic airmass has retreated west. The problem is the development of the yellow med airmass. This should also kill off any warm front by diluting the temperature gradient (sorry folks, no big breakdown event). Most of the UK is still in the cold airmass though.

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GFSP produces quite a snow event in the west on Saturday before the front fizzles:

 

(snow charts come with usual health warnings)

 

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Parallel GFS is pushing cold back west

Parallel GFS is pushing cold back west

Yep and even the op run maintains the block with a cool southeasterly flow, although the deep cold is way down in the Balkans.

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Airmass next Tuesday:

Full image: https://i.ibb.co/DrvMgWD/nxttuesdayairmass.jpg

A restrengthening of the front with the red atlantic airmass finally making progress.

Development of a 4th 'W european' airmass from air travelling over the less cold part of France. German airmass still across E UK.

Keep in mind this is +153h now, well into FI and the dark blue line is still over the UK.

 

 

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Parallel run pulls out sub -10 this time next week in a keen easterly

Control similar so far. Couldnt be more different to GEM and other output

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