Amid all the scatter, one trend to pick out is for high pressure to dominate the UK weather for the second half of the month, I think. Whether that is a cold high with a bit of easterly influence or a mild high with some early spring sunshine is open to debate, but I rather doubt we will be seeing much of the Z word for a couple of weeks at least.

Saw the the para  -didn't realise it was back up and running - it's a lot colder than the gfs so awaiting the ECM - but -16c? Given the met o and BBC long range I wouldn't rule it out. Of course that's a colder run and won't verify but that is a possibility that something similar could verify.

I think the milder push of air this weekend and into next week could be brief by the sounds of it!? 

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The Met are certainly bullish with the mild. The auto forecast here has 10C for Monday and 11C for Tuesday; GFS ensemble has a median value of 3.6C and 6.0C respectively, and even the mildest member doesn't reach quite that high (9.4C and 10.3C are the highest).

 

Mind you the Met went for 7C for this Friday just a couple of days ago, and have since revised it down to 1C. 

GEM has flipped back to cold. Control as well.

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UKMO own model suggests block will renew itself, perhaps the return to mild a little hasty

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The ECM op turns on the hairdryer next week:

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The ECM op turns on the hairdryer next week:

Some serious waa there. Right into the Arctic. Would not be surprised to the euro high pump up hugely toward the end of the run

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ECM would feel like summer after this week - wouldn’t mind if spring started

The ECM op turns on the hairdryer next week:

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The ECM op turns on the hairdryer next week:

Please!

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I've just added in ECMP and will have it plumbed into the website during the next 24 hours. The direct link is:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfp.aspx

It looks quite consistent with the op run, although that could be chance.

 

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ECM would feel like summer after this week - wouldn’t mind if spring started

Were the ECM 12z op to verify as shown, next week will certainly be somewhat milder than this week. That said, I can see temperatures falling away again at night at least at the end of the run:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

I don't know about anyone else, but I am getting a small feeling that the milder spell may not last that long.

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Were the ECM 12z op to verify as shown, next week will certainly be somewhat milder than this week. That said, I can see temperatures falling away again at night at least at the end of the run:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

I don't know about anyone else, but I am getting a small feeling that the milder spell may not last that long.

I would go as far to say it is wrong, I think the WAA will angle different to what is shown on ECM with a more straight line feed. But I won’t complain if it turns mild 

The ECM op turns on the hairdryer next week:

If that's a hairdryer then the heating element is faulty - it might be warm aloft but the surface temperatures are still only around normal for mid-February: 7c in the SE & maybe 10c in the SW.

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If that's a hairdryer then the heating element is faulty - it might be warm aloft but the surface temperatures are still only around normal for mid-February: 7c in the SE & maybe 10c in the SW.

 

Well the met office have gone off and are now showing +12c here for next week. I think they are over estimating IMO but you never know the sun is getting stronger.

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Well the met office have gone off and are now showing +12c here for next week. I think they are over estimating IMO but you never know the sun is getting stronger.

They’re showing 10C here by Tuesday.

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Is winter all over bar the shouting? Are we nearing the Kenneth Wolstenholme moment?

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No, winter likely to roll on I feel. The ECM meteograms suggesting a cool down again post day 10, ties in with METO forecasts 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/web/classical_meteogram?facets=undefined&time=2021021012,0,2021021012&epsgram=classical_15d_with_climate&lat=53.4809&lon=-2.23743&station_name=Manchester,%20United%20Kingdom&altitude=60

But then all models liable to large swings still, so who really knows

Martin

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Interesting mid-term outlook at the moment.

GFS @ 240 is blocked with HP extending from just to our North East down in to Europe. Due to the European lobe the block serves to draw up relatively mild air on a broadly SSE flow. 

GEM @ 240 is blocked with HP over Scandi. 850s are nothing exciting but depending on how chilly the continent is at that stage at ground level it's potentially cold and given preceding charts I'd expect us to pull in some colder 850s soon after.

ECM @ 240 is blocked with HP over the UK. It traps relatively mild 850s but again could possibly introduce some somewhat colder surface air. Hard to say whether it'd go cold afterwards or not but the HP is if anything building gently North at that point so it might do.

GEFS has a reasonable cluster showing blocking to our North at 240, along with a bigger cluster showing blocking over us or to our South instead. 

I imagine if we weren't in a cold spell I'd be keeping an eye on things from there as it suggests a reasonable chance of a cold spell developing towards the end of the month. Not a strong chance from what's shown but a reasonable chance. A standard zonal spell is currently looking very unlikely.

Speculative percentage chance for general pattern/weather type for final third of the month from tonight's runs:

Zonal - 10%.

HP dominated via blocking over the UK or just to the South - 65%

HP dominated cold spell, probably Scandi based - 25%

Could all change of course and would want to see the signal maintained or in the case of cold, develop, but not a bad place to be. HP with no colder surface feed could be quite pleasant at this time of the year if it wasn't murky.

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If that's a hairdryer then the heating element is faulty - it might be warm aloft but the surface temperatures are still only around normal for mid-February: 7c in the SE & maybe 10c in the SW.

My Meteogram based on that op has temps no higher than 8C middle of next week dropping again thereafter. 

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=1&carte=1

I am now watching this giving very cold weather over Cyprus and Middle East.  I am sure they will get snow storms again on those usual suspect places and that would enrage for us UK not got a single snow storm out of this cold spell just stupid lined up snow showers which I never heard of rain showers doing this as they move anywhere and not controlled.   -16C uppers just very closed to Cyprus. If this hit the island then Nicosia will go subzero maxes beating what we got here for day time for the first time ever and heavy snow day and night.  Last time happened at -10C uppers and 2C max with 1 and half foot of snow there on 4th Feb 1950.

I suspect there might still be a few surprises as we head further into next week but back in the here and now there is an interesting development on the Netweather Radar over the Cotentin Peninsula!

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