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The parallel is astounding -16 850s into EA by +180!
Indeed. Madness!
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=186&mode=1&runpara=1&carte=6
Such drama. And at the same time I’m watching a blob crossing over the hills.
What exciting lives we lead. πππ
Yes it is interesting but it (GFSP/v16) is not even an operational model yet. I would take such evolutions with a huge pinch of salt. The breakdown this weekend is still on course (slowly) to something less cold. It may, further down the line, get cold again but there’s a lot of water/snow melt to pass under the bridge first.
Yeah sensible approach. I wont dismiss it, but equally I'm not buying into either.
The old GFS just 30c warmer .
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&time=279&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
I fully expect it is on the money. Feeling confident!
what’s the uturn to? I’m seeing quite a few different meto forecasts on their different channels π
Pretty much a total u-turn on the UKM extended over just three issues. That didn’t take long.
You left out ==>
It will be interesting as ever to see what the ECM 12z shows. If it is remotely like the GFSP I will raise one perhaps even two eyebrows.
You left out ==> It will be interesting as ever to see what the ECM 12z shows. If it is remotely like the GFSP I will raise one perhaps even two eyebrows.
Having snow falling on snow presently is giving me a boost. I think the models are going to bring severe cold back before the last week of the month, maybe sooner a la //.
Fingers crossed and I am glad to hear you have snow falling.
Early period UKM text. More or less removed all reference to easterly type now, and they’re probably quite right given the significant majority of output brings the Atlantic in next week.
If the GFS parallel is right I’ll eat the contents of my wheely bin.
Early period UKM text. More or less removed all reference to easterly type now, and they’re probably quite right given the significant majority of output brings the Atlantic in next week.If the GFS parallel is right I’ll eat the contents of my wheely bin.
Dinner is served
I guess rubbish input beats rubbish output?
Amid all the scatter, one trend to pick out is for high pressure to dominate the UK weather for the second half of the month, I think. Whether that is a cold high with a bit of easterly influence or a mild high with some early spring sunshine is open to debate, but I rather doubt we will be seeing much of the Z word for a couple of weeks at least.
The Met are certainly bullish with the mild. The auto forecast here has 10C for Monday and 11C for Tuesday; GFS ensemble has a median value of 3.6C and 6.0C respectively, and even the mildest member doesn't reach quite that high (9.4C and 10.3C are the highest).
Mind you the Met went for 7C for this Friday just a couple of days ago, and have since revised it down to 1C.
Something like Feb 2008 would be nice - high diurnal ranges with mild days and cold nights.
A -17C dewpoint showing up on GFS 12z for midday Saturday