now you are predicting 8 weeks away the messiah

Yes, yes I am, looking at the medium to longer range MODELS. Forgive me for looking at models and then passing comment on them.

---

Yes, yes I am, looking at the medium to longer range MODELS. Forgive me for looking at models and then passing comment on them.

How about GEM, GFSP, ENS ? Can you reference the model showing cold in Mid March? Stop digging

Yes, yes I am, looking at the medium to longer range MODELS. Forgive me for looking at models and then passing comment on them.

To offer myself as a mediator - I think what people are saying is if you reference the models you are using to support your position we can debate and analyse and agree or disagree.

Without data you’re resorting to, in your words, ‘gut instinct’ and this thread isn’t really the place for that.

---

 To offer myself as a mediator - I think what people are saying is if you reference the models you are using to support your position we can debate and analyse and agree or disagree.

Without data you’re resorting to, in your words, ‘gut instinct’ and this thread isn’t really the place for that.

You are right of course

I am still searching for the phantom easterly, which becomes anecdotally more likely as we head into February.

Looking at the ECM op there is little sign at 10 days other than a weak HP in NW Russia and simlar across Greenland. 

The prevalence of a trough stretching into the Arctic just to our east remains a recurring theme so it will be largely cool overall.

Is this the moomin thread or model output ? There is a hide user posts option if people feel any particular poster is not bringing value to the thread.

 

To offer myself as a mediator - I think what people are saying is if you reference the models you are using to support your position we can debate and analyse and agree or disagree.

Without data you’re resorting to, in your words, ‘gut instinct’ and this thread isn’t really the place for that.

I tend to post using my phone and not a laptop and I struggle to get links and charts posted and have absolutely no idea how to post graphics within a post, so that's more a technical brain fade than anything else.

I take your point though. Gut instinct is not for this thread, but its gut instinct backed up on experience of previous years, what the models appear to be showing, and including taking stock of updated longer range models.

Believe it or not, I am not trying to troll or antagonise. I am just trying to give a view as I see it. There used to be a "Winter thoughts" thread which i don't think we've had this year. Maybe in hindsight that should've been a thread started in December, but too late to start one now.

I don't mind getting brow-beaten when I deserve it though, and I accept that my posts are not what people want to see, but likewise, I've received many private messages from a lot of people who have broadly agreed with me, but are too fearful about posting their agreement in this thread because certain people just round on them.

What has always made this place so wonderful is that everyone's views are generally speaking accepted, and my only fault is posting perhaps in an inappropriate thread, but as I say, I am NEVER intending to cause annoyance or antagonism.

---

Seen a lot of comment that the most recent ECM 0Z is to be discarded for some reason.

Hope that is correct, since it is a dreadful synoptic outlook for the UK if it is in any way reflective of what we can expect up to 10 days ahead.

But some are saying it is rubbish, because it is not taking account of changes in the MJO forecasts.

---

Indications on the Op run of higher pressure becoming established to the north - weak at the moment but could become a cold influence

I tend to post using my phone and not a laptop and I struggle to get links and charts posted and have absolutely no idea how to post graphics within a post, so that's more a technical brain fade than anything else.

I take your point though. Gut instinct is not for this thread, but its gut instinct backed up on experience of previous years, what the models appear to be showing, and including taking stock of updated longer range models.

Believe it or not, I am not trying to troll or antagonise. I am just trying to give a view as I see it. There used to be a "Winter thoughts" thread which i don't think we've had this year. Maybe in hindsight that should've been a thread started in December, but too late to start one now.

I don't mind getting brow-beaten when I deserve it though, and I accept that my posts are not what people want to see, but likewise, I've received many private messages from a lot of people who have broadly agreed with me, but are too fearful about posting their agreement in this thread because certain people just round on them.

What has always made this place so wonderful is that everyone's views are generally speaking accepted, and my only fault is posting perhaps in an inappropriate thread, but as I say, I am NEVER intending to cause annoyance or antagonism.

 

I've long thought there should be a thread for strictly model analysis, and a thread for general winter (or spring/summer/autumn) discussion (to including whining and moaning)

---

Is this the moomin thread or model output ? There is a hide user posts option if people feel any particular poster is not bringing value to the thread.

 

I just wish that if you hide somebody’s post then any subsequent post quoting them would also be hidden. As it is I still have two pages filled with a certain posters quotes. :(

---

Is this the moomin thread or model output ? There is a hide user posts option if people feel any particular poster is not bringing value to the thread.

 

Precisely

---

06Z GFS looks better for prolonging the cold over northern Britain right into February. Some lows do move east across northern parts and back edge colder air does filter south at times. Much better for cold than the 00Z (for me) All change for the 12Z no doubt

---

Take your pick:

GEM 00z @ 240Z gives us an easterly:

 

ECM 00Z @ 240Z gives us a westerly:

---

 

To offer myself as a mediator - I think what people are saying is if you reference the models you are using to support your position we can debate and analyse and agree or disagree.

Without data you’re resorting to, in your words, ‘gut instinct’ and this thread isn’t really the place for that.

Agreed and I am always amazed at the number of posters who have a "gut instinct" for an upcoming Easterly that isn't shown !

---

Hopeless spread on the 06z ensembles (London) after the mild spell from Feb 1st on but I think it is reasonable to say that the temperature trend is generally downwards.

---

Have just waded through the moomin "wiff waff" debates, and that's 10 wasted minutes of my life I won't get back.

As others have suggested this is not the thread for that type of discussion.......let's stay on topic please.

---

Have just waded through the moomin "wiff waff" debates, and that's 10 wasted minutes of my life I won't get back.

As others have suggested this is not the thread for that type of discussion.......let's stay on topic please.

Yes there are at least a dozen posts replying to one user here and little discussion on the models. I suppose we are all missing Marcus (aka Gooner's) JFF's?

---

What's the latest news on the SSW? Or more to the point how many have we had and how many more are on the way? Have the effects started filtering down to the 500hPa level in the models or not? 

---

What's the latest news on the SSW? Or more to the point how many have we had and how many more are on the way? Have the effects started filtering down to the 500hPa level in the models or not? 

Maybe they will arrive in time for next winter. 

This happened last year. We waited, waited and waited and then it was spring.

The METO had to eventually drop then line ‘getting colder during this period’ that kept on getting pushed back.

---

What's the latest news on the SSW? Or more to the point how many have we had and how many more are on the way? Have the effects started filtering down to the 500hPa level in the models or not? 

it was mentioned in the winterwatch programme last night, explaining it was going on, but very non committal as to if it was going to cause any changes in the current weather. From what I have read on here, so far 2 have occurred , is that correct?

---