Worth noting that CMC is fractionally outperforming the UK Met, GFS op and GFS dev.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

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Worth noting that CMC is fractionally outperforming the UK Met, GFS op and GFS dev.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

Is CMC "GEM"?

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The parallel seems heavily biased in that favour, but I still maintain as I have done for weeks that there is no sign of winter for much of southern England.

I accept the north have had their fair share of snow this winter, but for a large swathe of England and Wales its been rain, rain, rain, and there is STILL absolutely no sign of this changing. Indeed, it's looking increasing like the last month of meteorological winter will be a zonal rain-fest and will maybe rival last year's wettest February.

I am ready to call winter, for what it was, being over for much of England from the Midlands southwards, and as I stated a few week's ago, flooding will be the main headline making news in the coming weeks. That is certainly the case this week, and I see this continuing.

this is the reason people come back to calling how much nonsense you have just said then you get too sensitive.

 

Is CMC "GEM"?

Yes.

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Worth noting that CMC is fractionally outperforming the UK Met, GFS op and GFS dev.

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

Its definitely the most underrated model. Here's how it ends this morning. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

 

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this is the reason people come back to calling how much nonsense you have just said then you get too sensitive.

Give me proof that I have called this completely wrong and I will accept I am talking nonsense.

 

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Give me proof that I have called this completely wrong and I will accept I am talking nonsense.

 

How about, as it is you making the claim in the model output thread, that you back up the claims, for winter being over in the south and a zonal month for February, with model output? Not much to ask for in the model output thread surely?

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Give me proof that I have called this completely wrong and I will ccept I am talking nonsense.

 

To be fair you have consistently maintained this line almost regardless of what a reasonable analysis of the output would suggest.

You may be right but some of your commentary isn’t.

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How about, as it is you making the claim in the model output thread, that you back up the claims, for winter being over in the south and a zonal month for February, with model output? Not much to ask for in the model output thread surely?

Based on the models, particularly but not exclusively the GFS, the outlook is looking increasingly wet and zonal. Zonality, once it sets in, is very hard to break out of, and often sets up for several weeks at a time.

Given that meteorological winter ends on 28th February, its highly likely that this zonal spell will see the majority through to the end of winter 2020/21. There may be some caveats with occasional cooler interludes as the low pressure barrel through the country, leaving brief northerly incursions, and possibly brief wintry snaps (in the north).

I have assessed all of the models and with the exception of the occasional rogue run (GFS parallel for example), they are all singing from the same hymn sheet.

I am not a harbinger of doom, but just being realistic based on what the models are showing.

I don't do this deliberately to antagonise, but based on what is unfolding before my eyes.

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Based on the models, particularly but not exclusively the GFS, the outlook is looking increasingly wet and zonal. Zonality, once it sets in, is very hard to break out of, and often sets up for several weeks at a time.

Given that meteorological winter ends on 28th February, its highly likely that this zonal spell will see the majority through to the end of winter 2020/21. There may be some caveats with occasional cooler interludes as the low pressure barrel through the country, leaving brief northerly incursions, and possibly brief wintry snaps (in the north).

I have assessed all of the models and with the exception of the occasional rogue run (GFS parallel for example), they are all singing from the same hymn sheet.

I am not a harbinger of doom, but just being realistic based on what the models are showing.

I don't do this deliberately to antagonise, but based on what is unfolding before my eyes.

All the models cannot be singing from the same hymn sheet as the only one that actually reaches early Feb at this stage is the GFS (unless you have comments on the extended ECM which do not have access to). 

Bear in mind, I am not saying that your forecast will be wrong, just that the evidence is not available or maybe even possible within scientific limits to state what you do with the confidence you state it. Meteorology has not reached those levels yet, with supercomputers, never mind individual analysis. 

For example, looking at the day 15/16 ensembles panel for the GFS 00z run, a large number of options are present and a significant number, not zonal:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU00_384_1.png 

I could equally find pieces of evidence that support a very blocked and meridional February with a lot of wintry weather around. I'm not going to do that as the evidence is also not conclusive for such a scenario at this range.

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Give me proof that I have called this completely wrong and I will accept I am talking nonsense.

 

 

Well the fact you nearly post every day that you've called winter. Yes we get it!! But the majority of sensible posters ignore it because it is nonsense most of the time.

There is still the whole month of February and with still colder signals appearing in the MO...which is what this thread is about...it is rather a nonsense statement to say winter is done now let alone the numerous times you have posted this through out January

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Based on the models, particularly but not exclusively the GFS, the outlook is looking increasingly wet and zonal. Zonality, once it sets in, is very hard to break out of, and often sets up for several weeks at a time.

Given that meteorological winter ends on 28th February, its highly likely that this zonal spell will see the majority through to the end of winter 2020/21. There may be some caveats with occasional cooler interludes as the low pressure barrel through the country, leaving brief northerly incursions, and possibly brief wintry snaps (in the north).

I have assessed all of the models and with the exception of the occasional rogue run (GFS parallel for example), they are all singing from the same hymn sheet.

I am not a harbinger of doom, but just being realistic based on what the models are showing.

I don't do this deliberately to antagonise, but based on what is unfolding before my eyes.

I assume you’ve not seen that 850s for the south are going to be below average for at least the next 6 days. With risk of some snow.

Youve been towing this line for a while, and perhaps you could be right in the longer term. But currently you are wrong, last week you were towing the same line. Yes, no deep cold, but hardly spring like and zonal. 

Equally. I don’t believe we need to be reminded everyday that all you see in the charts is mild. When they are not.  

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I wonder what GEM is sniffing (along with GFSP and several EC members) that the GFS is not - or maybe it is.
It wouldn’t take much for a more robust resilience to the Atlantic next week to create the sort of set-up that GFSP has been fairly persistent with.
I still believe this part of the world hasn’t seen the full effects of the SSW (remember that 😷😉) yet.

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All the models cannot be singing from the same hymn sheet as the only one that actually reaches early Feb at this stage is the GFS (unless you have comments on the extended ECM which do not have access to). 

Bear in mind, I am not saying that your forecast will be wrong, just that the evidence is not available or maybe even possible within scientific limits to state what you do with the confidence you state it. Meteorology has not reached those levels yet, with supercomputers, never mind individual analysis. 

For example, looking at the day 15/16 ensembles panel for the GFS 00z run, a large number of options are present and a significant number, not zonal:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU00_384_1.png 

I could equally find pieces of evidence that support a very blocked and meridional February with a lot of wintry weather around. I'm not going to do that as the evidence is also not conclusive for such a scenario at this range.

There are long range models as well Michael. I've been watching them for more than 10 years as you have.

There is a degree of gut instinct too, but the trends do not bode well.

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i’m not sure ‘gut instinct’ can be classed as evidence m’lud

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There are long range models as well Michael. I've been watching them for more than 10 years as you have.

There is a degree of gut instinct too, but the trends do not bode well.

Do what I did and laugh at the ridiculousness of the statement and move on

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I accept the north have had their fair share of snow this winter, but for a large swathe of England and Wales its been rain, rain, rain, and there is STILL absolutely no sign of this changing. Indeed, it's looking increasing like the last month of meteorological winter will be a zonal rain-fest and will maybe rival last year's wettest February.

I am ready to call winter, for what it was, being over for much of England from the Midlands southwards, and as I stated a few week's ago, flooding will be the main headline making news in the coming weeks. That is certainly the case this week, and I see this continuing.

Looks like catastrophic flooding possible, worse than last year. I am hoping the Azores high can push the systems further north and spare us down here, and even give us an early taste of Spring to boot

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i’m not sure ‘gut instinct’ can be classed as evidence m’lud

I said there is some of that based on experience of previous years.

There are countless long and short range models out there. I have called what I've seen for years, and I don't always call mild mush, but when tjr evidence is there, I just mention it.

I think at the very least noone can deny the signs do not look promising.

Personally, I believe the coldest spell this winter will actually come in early to mid March when things will look decidedly different to now, but again, time will tell.

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Based on the models, particularly but not exclusively the GFS, the outlook is looking increasingly wet and zonal. Zonality, once it sets in, is very hard to break out of, and often sets up for several weeks at a time.

Given that meteorological winter ends on 28th February, its highly likely that this zonal spell will see the majority through to the end of winter 2020/21. There may be some caveats with occasional cooler interludes as the low pressure barrel through the country, leaving brief northerly incursions, and possibly brief wintry snaps (in the north).

I have assessed all of the models and with the exception of the occasional rogue run (GFS parallel for example), they are all singing from the same hymn sheet.

I am not a harbinger of doom, but just being realistic based on what the models are showing.

I don't do this deliberately to antagonise, but based on what is unfolding before my eyes.

As we are told when the models show cold, "it is only what the models are showing". I believe that what you say is correct for what the models are showing now but still not near enough to predict the last three weeks of February. I believe in two weeks from now "winter's over posts for the South" will be justified as if nothing very good showing then it would realistically leave just one week and that wouldn't be enough to save a snowless winter for most of the South. By then I think the North and Scotland will be able to look back and say it was a bit colder than average for recent winters with a bit more snow.

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I said there is some of that based on experience of previous years.

There are countless long and short range models out there. I have called what I've seen for years, and I don't always call mild mush, but when tjr evidence is there, I just mention it.

I think at the very least noone can deny the signs do not look promising.

Personally, I believe the coldest spell this winter will actually come in early to mid March when things will look decidedly different to now, but again, time will tell.

now you are predicting 8 weeks away the messiah