this is the reason people come back to calling how much nonsense you have just said then you get too sensitive.

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Give me proof that I have called this completely wrong and I will accept I am talking nonsense.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Give me proof that I have called this completely wrong and I will ccept I am talking nonsense.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

How about, as it is you making the claim in the model output thread, that you back up the claims, for winter being over in the south and a zonal month for February, with model output? Not much to ask for in the model output thread surely?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Based on the models, particularly but not exclusively the GFS, the outlook is looking increasingly wet and zonal. Zonality, once it sets in, is very hard to break out of, and often sets up for several weeks at a time.

Given that meteorological winter ends on 28th February, its highly likely that this zonal spell will see the majority through to the end of winter 2020/21. There may be some caveats with occasional cooler interludes as the low pressure barrel through the country, leaving brief northerly incursions, and possibly brief wintry snaps (in the north).

I have assessed all of the models and with the exception of the occasional rogue run (GFS parallel for example), they are all singing from the same hymn sheet.

I am not a harbinger of doom, but just being realistic based on what the models are showing.

I don't do this deliberately to antagonise, but based on what is unfolding before my eyes.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Give me proof that I have called this completely wrong and I will accept I am talking nonsense.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Based on the models, particularly but not exclusively the GFS, the outlook is looking increasingly wet and zonal. Zonality, once it sets in, is very hard to break out of, and often sets up for several weeks at a time.

Given that meteorological winter ends on 28th February, its highly likely that this zonal spell will see the majority through to the end of winter 2020/21. There may be some caveats with occasional cooler interludes as the low pressure barrel through the country, leaving brief northerly incursions, and possibly brief wintry snaps (in the north).

I have assessed all of the models and with the exception of the occasional rogue run (GFS parallel for example), they are all singing from the same hymn sheet.

I am not a harbinger of doom, but just being realistic based on what the models are showing.

I don't do this deliberately to antagonise, but based on what is unfolding before my eyes.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

All the models cannot be singing from the same hymn sheet as the only one that actually reaches early Feb at this stage is the GFS (unless you have comments on the extended ECM which do not have access to). 

Bear in mind, I am not saying that your forecast will be wrong, just that the evidence is not available or maybe even possible within scientific limits to state what you do with the confidence you state it. Meteorology has not reached those levels yet, with supercomputers, never mind individual analysis. 

For example, looking at the day 15/16 ensembles panel for the GFS 00z run, a large number of options are present and a significant number, not zonal:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSPANELEU00_384_1.png 

I could equally find pieces of evidence that support a very blocked and meridional February with a lot of wintry weather around. I'm not going to do that as the evidence is also not conclusive for such a scenario at this range.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

There are long range models as well Michael. I've been watching them for more than 10 years as you have.

There is a degree of gut instinct too, but the trends do not bode well.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I accept the north have had their fair share of snow this winter, but for a large swathe of England and Wales its been rain, rain, rain, and there is STILL absolutely no sign of this changing. Indeed, it's looking increasing like the last month of meteorological winter will be a zonal rain-fest and will maybe rival last year's wettest February.

I am ready to call winter, for what it was, being over for much of England from the Midlands southwards, and as I stated a few week's ago, flooding will be the main headline making news in the coming weeks. That is certainly the case this week, and I see this continuing.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

i’m not sure ‘gut instinct’ can be classed as evidence m’lud

Originally Posted by: dagspot 

Based on the models, particularly but not exclusively the GFS, the outlook is looking increasingly wet and zonal. Zonality, once it sets in, is very hard to break out of, and often sets up for several weeks at a time.

Given that meteorological winter ends on 28th February, its highly likely that this zonal spell will see the majority through to the end of winter 2020/21. There may be some caveats with occasional cooler interludes as the low pressure barrel through the country, leaving brief northerly incursions, and possibly brief wintry snaps (in the north).

I have assessed all of the models and with the exception of the occasional rogue run (GFS parallel for example), they are all singing from the same hymn sheet.

I am not a harbinger of doom, but just being realistic based on what the models are showing.

I don't do this deliberately to antagonise, but based on what is unfolding before my eyes.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I said there is some of that based on experience of previous years.

There are countless long and short range models out there. I have called what I've seen for years, and I don't always call mild mush, but when tjr evidence is there, I just mention it.

I think at the very least noone can deny the signs do not look promising.

Personally, I believe the coldest spell this winter will actually come in early to mid March when things will look decidedly different to now, but again, time will tell.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

now you are predicting 8 weeks away the messiah

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

Yes, yes I am, looking at the medium to longer range MODELS. Forgive me for looking at models and then passing comment on them.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Yes, yes I am, looking at the medium to longer range MODELS. Forgive me for looking at models and then passing comment on them.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

 To offer myself as a mediator - I think what people are saying is if you reference the models you are using to support your position we can debate and analyse and agree or disagree.

Without data you’re resorting to, in your words, ‘gut instinct’ and this thread isn’t really the place for that.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

To offer myself as a mediator - I think what people are saying is if you reference the models you are using to support your position we can debate and analyse and agree or disagree.

Without data you’re resorting to, in your words, ‘gut instinct’ and this thread isn’t really the place for that.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I tend to post using my phone and not a laptop and I struggle to get links and charts posted and have absolutely no idea how to post graphics within a post, so that's more a technical brain fade than anything else.

I take your point though. Gut instinct is not for this thread, but its gut instinct backed up on experience of previous years, what the models appear to be showing, and including taking stock of updated longer range models.

Believe it or not, I am not trying to troll or antagonise. I am just trying to give a view as I see it. There used to be a "Winter thoughts" thread which i don't think we've had this year. Maybe in hindsight that should've been a thread started in December, but too late to start one now.

I don't mind getting brow-beaten when I deserve it though, and I accept that my posts are not what people want to see, but likewise, I've received many private messages from a lot of people who have broadly agreed with me, but are too fearful about posting their agreement in this thread because certain people just round on them.

What has always made this place so wonderful is that everyone's views are generally speaking accepted, and my only fault is posting perhaps in an inappropriate thread, but as I say, I am NEVER intending to cause annoyance or antagonism.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Is this the moomin thread or model output ? There is a hide user posts option if people feel any particular poster is not bringing value to the thread.

Originally Posted by: backtobasics