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Either I've got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning or I'm just being honest/realistic but I've given up hopes of seeing anything too wintry for my neck of the woods for the rest of this Winter. Watered down 850 hpas and heights too low to the north of the UK and high pressure holding firm to the south = westerlies as far as I can see. Granted there are the odd "tasty" easterly options on the table but all are a million miles way and just chasing rainbows, until then it is true that some parts of the UK (particularly the Borders) could do well with short lived transient snowfalls, just not here at my end of Kent.So with all that to mind, I'm going to call time on this "Winter" and just look forward to the first bit of Spring-like warmth (like in Feb '19).
Parallel run has been consistent with its theme at 10 days plus easterly is there again
Yes, it even seems to be bringing it forward rather than staying at 14 days plus.
There's a chart to make the mouth water if ever there was one.
Either I've got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning or I'm just being honest/realistic but I've given up hopes of seeing anything too wintry for my neck of the woods for the rest of this Winter. Watered down 850 hpas and heights too low to the north of the UK and high pressure holding firm to the south = westerlies as far as I can see. Of course, some parts of the UK (particularly the Borders) could do well with short lived transient snowfalls, just not here at my end of Kent. So I'm going to call time on this "Winter" and just look forward to the first bit of Spring-like warmth (like in Feb '19).
You might have been thinking the same way on this date in 1956 or 1986. I've just looked at the archive charts, and they don't look that different for 20th January from this year's.
Could be a long wait for some spring warmth (unless today's 11C mild and wet counts). The CFS monthly update goes for a cold March. Edit... OK well it did yesterday but it doesn't today
I just think there is no such thing as pattern matching - at least not in the finer sense. Our atmosphere is in a constant state of chaos, it's just coincidence that some seasons seems to look similar to each other. There's every chance that this coming February will turn out to be just as wet, or better still, warmer and drier.
It could be either of those, of course. My point is just that the charts of today and those forecast for the next few days certainly don't rule out a cold February. And the GFS Para seems to agree with me! I believe it's soon to replace the current version of the model. If it had already done so, I wonder how different the sentiment here would have been.
Well the parallel run keeps getting better! Not checked if it has any support in the ENS
GEFS only out to 192 hours yet but looks like slightly more support for height rises to the north already. 240 hours is where we want to start seeing that support.
The parallel is very different from the old GFS. Let's hope it is a worthy upgrade!
GEFS only out to 192 hours yet but looks like slightly more support for height rises to the north already. 240 hours is where we want to start seeing that support.The parallel is very different from the old GFS. Let's hope it is a worthy upgrade!
That's 3 GFS parallel runs in the trot with evolution to a Scandi high in FI. Unusual consistency so far out. Looking through the ENS there does appear to be some support. It all seems to depend on the extent of the Iberian high ridging North.
Given it's FI, all very possible that the evolution could disappear in the next run, but interesting all the same.
.... plus the same pattern is likely to be a couple of degrees warmer now that it was in 1956 and 1986!
I think cold fans in the snow starved S.E need to look at the near future rather than long term, which is frankly hopeless at the moment based on the 006z GFS Ensembles (London). But his weekend is of interest now, The 850hPa still hits a low of-6.5C air temps forecast to be around 3C and DP's lower than last weekend at -3C maybe at times. Now in range of the fax charts there is a little low coming up from France which may provide the precipitation. As in the majority of cases this century it will probably marginal and not more than 1-2cm but likely to be our best bet till February is well under way,
So often these types of lows end up missing England and skirting along the channel. If they do hit, they bring milder air with them and so we get rain. Could be wrong this time though!?
There is also an occluded front pushing east across the south on Sunday. So perhaps we get 2 bites of the cherry ....
Really not much sign of any support for the Parallel solution on the GEFS, it is out on its own with the Scandi high.
Yes also no -10c uppers in FI like in previous runs:
P27 does bring in the -10C air, and is most similar to the parallel solution. Not much support though!
I think there are 16 ensemble members dropping below -10°C here on the 06z suite. No doubt what will eventually transpire in reality will be more cold rain.
That's my point - it's an outlier so not worth taking note of until it has some support from other ENS members.