My advice is to check back no more than 12 hours before its due, the weather is notoriously fickle at present. One thing is for sure -a fascinating period of flood and storm watching ahead of snow events that are finely balanced in marginal scenarios.  An Interesting week ahead.

A lot of excitement indeed. I note that there remains the possibility of a snow event in the south this weekend. All very encouraging. I'm making the most of this mild spell, with my rain coat on taking photographs without gloves because I suspect it could be sometime before it returns.

Late January deep cold is an option on the table. 

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A lot of excitement indeed. I note that there remains the possibility of a snow event in the south this weekend. All very encouraging. I'm making the most of this mild spell, with my rain coat on taking photographs without gloves because I suspect it could be sometime before it returns.

Late January deep cold is an option on the table. 

ICON looks interesting for Sussex and Kent on Saturday

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2021011912/iconeu-1-93-1.png?19-16

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2021011912/iconeu-1-96-1.png?19-16

A few GFS runs now have had a Scandi High in FI.  Keeping an eye on this trend as I'm thinking an Easterly is a possibility.

Crikey

An absolute snow fest for the Scottish contingent - even Aberdeen! Great stuff although transportation and logistics could be badly affected.

Very little interest for me dan sowf for the foreseeable.

Let's see if the MO longer term projections turn out to be accurate for Feb

 

I feel it could be a good weekend for Scottish skiing!

Oops sorry I guess with covid-19 it's all closed!?

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ECM clusters suggesting a stronger chance of easterlies out in far FI

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/cluster_plot_legA?base_time=202101191200&cluster=264_360&parameter=1000

Martin

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Crikey

An absolute snow fest for the Scottish contingent - even Aberdeen! Great stuff although transportation and logistics could be badly affected.

Very little interest for me dan sowf for the foreseeable.

Let's see if the MO longer term projections turn out to be accurate for Feb

 

I'm moderately hopeful of seeing snow this weekend TBH. Last Saturday's "event" was a complete bake (the extent of the excitement was opening the patio doors so I could take a few snaps before the snow disappeared) but I'm estimating a 30% to 40% chance of doing better this time.

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This could be coming to a place near you. Be careful what you wish for.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021011912/gensnh-6-0-384.png

This could be coming to a place near you. Be careful what you wish for.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021011912/gensnh-6-0-384.png

 

If only....

This could be coming to a place near you. Be careful what you wish for.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021011912/gensnh-6-0-384.png

Look like heading to Greece and Cyprus from the position of the extreme deep cold.  I know the -10C uppers had crossed over Cyprus in 4th Feb 1950 that give 1 and half foot of snow in Nicosia and outskirts.  If I was in there i would be more confidence of the deep cold heading there but for UK no confident until it landed in front of my house of -5C day max when you open the door to inspect the coldness and severe snow storm viewing from the windows.

That that way forward since all models had been very poor and never right on the day. Was going to have all day rain here yesterday afternoon, over night and today but did not happened only few hours in between.  

This could be coming to a place near you. Be careful what you wish for.

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2021011912/gensnh-6-0-384.png

Well the 16C 850's are closer than the sub -20C lol

Mild weather looks like it’s being “squeezed out” tonight on the NWP. This is very apparent on the 12z ECM but it also turns cold again quite quickly on the 18z GFS.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_258_2.png

Will be interesting to see if this trend continues tomorrow. 

 

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GFS 18z Parallel even lets me get in on the act!! Certainly a cooling trend and pretty cold for the northern half throughout.
http://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2021011918/gfs-1-294.png?18 

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Mild weather looks like it’s being “squeezed out” tonight on the NWP. This is very apparent on the 12z ECM but it also turns cold again quite quickly on the 18z GFS.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_258_2.png

Will be interesting to see if this trend continues tomorrow. 

 

Yes, both GFS 18z op and para go cold again in mid FI after a short milder incursion, with the Azores/Iberian high losing a bit of it's gusto.

All miles out of course but it will be interesting to see if this is a trend. In the short term all going to plan.

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ICON looks interesting for Sussex and Kent on Saturday

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2021011912/iconeu-1-93-1.png?19-16

http://modeles12.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/runs/2021011912/iconeu-1-96-1.png?19-16

Highly unlikely though it is I'd take that passing snow shower IMBY on my birthday!!

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Parallel run probably the greatest run I have seen!

The 18z para has the weather pattern spot on 100% correct 🙃

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Been through the 18z ENS and there's definitely a fair number with sliding lows and pressure builds to our NE in deep FI.

The first signs of a trend I wonder or gone in the morning 🤔

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The Southern contingent should be looking closer to home. 18z mean 850 hPa's(London) now bottom out at -6.5C on the 24th. DP's look lower than last weekend and max around 3C for a couple of days give good prospects of a bit of snow if there is any precipitation.

After that I would say the South has next to know chance of decent cold weather before February.

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Been through the 18z ENS and there's definitely a fair number with sliding lows and pressure builds to our NE in deep FI.

The first signs of a trend I wonder or gone in the morning 🤔

Yes Para goes for an easterly - hope is a trend setter but after so much flip flopping a change wouldn't surprise me.

Perfect HP block over Scandinavia brining in winds from eastern Europe/Russia where it has been cold of course.

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The Para is at it again this morning.

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