To offer myself as a mediator - I think what people are saying is if you reference the models you are using to support your position we can debate and analyse and agree or disagree.
Without data you’re resorting to, in your words, ‘gut instinct’ and this thread isn’t really the place for that.
I tend to post using my phone and not a laptop and I struggle to get links and charts posted and have absolutely no idea how to post graphics within a post, so that's more a technical brain fade than anything else.
I take your point though. Gut instinct is not for this thread, but its gut instinct backed up on experience of previous years, what the models appear to be showing, and including taking stock of updated longer range models.
Believe it or not, I am not trying to troll or antagonise. I am just trying to give a view as I see it. There used to be a "Winter thoughts" thread which i don't think we've had this year. Maybe in hindsight that should've been a thread started in December, but too late to start one now.
I don't mind getting brow-beaten when I deserve it though, and I accept that my posts are not what people want to see, but likewise, I've received many private messages from a lot of people who have broadly agreed with me, but are too fearful about posting their agreement in this thread because certain people just round on them.
What has always made this place so wonderful is that everyone's views are generally speaking accepted, and my only fault is posting perhaps in an inappropriate thread, but as I say, I am NEVER intending to cause annoyance or antagonism.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL