Take your pick:

GEM 00z @ 240Z gives us an easterly:

ECM 00Z @ 240Z gives us a westerly:

Difficult one that.

But clearly, GEM is the best model ever in the history of NWP and its 10 day chart will knock ECM into a cocked hat when it verifies.

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Para on Meteociel and Wetter is stuck at +102z is anyone else having issues with GFS para?

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Para on Meteociel and Wetter is stuck at +102z is anyone else having issues with GFS para?

If it gives us a February Beasterly, I will have no issues with it at all.

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Take a look at the 06z NAVGEM, as well as some colder 'breakout' options filtering in to the GEFS. I wouldn't want to put any money on the eventual outcome though! Fascinating if you love model watching however!

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The coldest GEFS run "on the ground" at least in the south isn't very impressive in terms of 850s (around -7C lowest) but it does have a perfect textbook example of a Channel low which results in a run of ice days down here, so I will post it purely for the sake of cherry picking and because it looks nice.

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What's the latest news on the SSW? Or more to the point how many have we had and how many more are on the way? Have the effects started filtering down to the 500hPa level in the models or not? 

A Meto forecast I've seen recently had indicated that an effect had already taken place and pushed the Jet Stream further south than normal. Maybe that is all we'll get.

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The coldest GEFS run "on the ground" at least in the south isn't very impressive in terms of 850s (around -7C lowest) but it does have a perfect textbook example of a Channel low which results in a run of ice days down here, so I will post it purely for the sake of cherry picking and because it looks nice.

Looks like some very 'penetrating' cold into northern scandi there 😂😂 you have to look closely lol

 

The coldest GEFS run "on the ground" at least in the south isn't very impressive in terms of 850s (around -7C lowest) but it does have a perfect textbook example of a Channel low which results in a run of ice days down here, so I will post it purely for the sake of cherry picking and because it looks nice.

Well we've got -7C 850's SUnday and a low pressure moving along just south of the channel as currently programmed ....... so get ready for some more ermm, rain.

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Its still a very exciting of period of weather / model watching with the cold period having commenced today lasting until Tues/Weds.

In that time there is the prospect of short notice troughs, secondary lows and other organised areas of precipitation moving across in cold air. Thicknesses are often between 519-524dam with 850's below -5c and low pressure on the scene.

I think I will be unlucky if I don't get to observe another high ground brief snow event this weekend. As a result the camera is charged in readiness and on standby.

As you know I don't follow specific model analysis after 144 hours as its an inefficient use of my time but I do look at ensembles. There is enough interest for me after the 27-30th milder blip to hope for more exciting synoptics as we move into early February.

One final point and without being controversial. I believe way too many members on this forum focus on charts at over 168 hours and actually miss what is going on before then. Only last night heavy snowfall fell briefly across vast swathes of the country briefly, something that will repeated in the next few days. I see the words 'surprise' being mentioned when it actual fact if you spent more time looking at the close range high resolution models that wouldn't have been the case.

Focus on the here and now and not the future and your love for the 'actual weather' will soon return. 

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Its still a very exciting of period of weather / model watching with the cold period having commenced today lasting until Tues/Weds.

In that time there is the prospect of short notice troughs, secondary lows and other organised areas of precipitation moving across in cold air. Thicknesses are often between 519-524dam with 850's below -5c and low pressure on the scene.

I think I will be unlucky if I don't get to observe another high ground brief snow event this weekend. As a result the camera is charged in readiness and on standby.

As you know I don't follow specific model analysis after 144 hours as its an inefficient use of my time but I do look at ensembles. There is enough interest for me after the 27-30th milder blip to hope for more exciting synoptics as we move into early February.

One final point and without being controversial. I believe way too many members on this forum focus on charts at over 168 hours and actually miss what is going on before then. Only last night heavy snowfall fell briefly across vast swathes of the country briefly, something that will repeated in the next few days. I see the words 'surprise' being mentioned when it actual fact if you spent more time looking at the close range high resolution models that wouldn't have been the case.

Focus on the here and now and not the future and your love for the 'actual weather' will soon return. 

Indeed.

some of the footage of Manchester City centre getting plastered with a good few inches of snow were incredible to see, considering the rain they must have had before the onset of the “wintry hazards” 

Have just waded through the moomin "wiff waff" debates, and that's 10 wasted minutes of my life I won't get back.

As others have suggested this is not the thread for that type of discussion.......let's stay on topic please.

Until now, I have done what most adults do, if you dont like what you read, ignore it.  I for one do find the guys post rather daft at times and rarely come with any evidence to support his claims.  Then on the other hand, the same can be said with those posting charts ten days out with JFF comments in the hope that they just might verify.

To be honest, the likelihood, is that he may well will be correct with his current observations, with a little license to elaborate without a JFF comment (maybe he should add one).

This guy clearly looks at winter from a perspective that most using this facility dont agree with, doesnt make him any different to the majority of those posting wishful charts from LaLa land that never verify.

If you dont like his observations, move on.  Whatever happened to tolerance, particularly of those with an opposing view to your own. 

Its still a very exciting of period of weather / model watching with the cold period having commenced today lasting until Tues/Weds.

In that time there is the prospect of short notice troughs, secondary lows and other organised areas of precipitation moving across in cold air. Thicknesses are often between 519-524dam with 850's below -5c and low pressure on the scene.

I think I will be unlucky if I don't get to observe another high ground brief snow event this weekend. As a result the camera is charged in readiness and on standby.

As you know I don't follow specific model analysis after 144 hours as its an inefficient use of my time but I do look at ensembles. There is enough interest for me after the 27-30th milder blip to hope for more exciting synoptics as we move into early February.

One final point and without being controversial. I believe way too many members on this forum focus on charts at over 168 hours and actually miss what is going on before then. Only last night heavy snowfall fell briefly across vast swathes of the country briefly, something that will repeated in the next few days. I see the words 'surprise' being mentioned when it actual fact if you spent more time looking at the close range high resolution models that wouldn't have been the case.

Focus on the here and now and not the future and your love for the 'actual weather' will soon return. 

I suppose, the term Model Output thread means exactly that, but I agree with you 100% 72 to 96 hours is about it for me for the real information, anything beyond, currently what with the state of uncertainty with SSW effects, PV splits is a little difficult.  One thing that does seem to have established is the promise, quickly nullified by the Atlantic followed by another promise, but with an overall cooling trend.  It certainly isnt mild anywhere in the UK for this time of year with temperatures at or slightly below average to the south, with a slightly below to cold in the north.  

 

I suppose, the term Model Output thread means exactly that, but I agree with you 100% 72 to 96 hours is about it for me for the real information, anything beyond, currently what with the state of uncertainty with SSW effects, PV splits is a little difficult.  One thing that does seem to have established is the promise, quickly nullified by the Atlantic followed by another promise, but with an overall cooling trend.  It certainly isnt mild anywhere in the UK for this time of year with temperatures at or slightly below average to the south, with a slightly below to cold in the north.  

The daffodils have buds on them. Three out of the last 5 day's have been in double figures, and going forward high single or low double figures look set to return after the upcoming cooler couple day's pass - i must stress cooler as 5/6 degrees in January is hardly cold.

Thankfully it hasn't been that wet down here this month with rainfall totals being just shy of 50% the average.

Almost a hint at a potential easterly on GFS at 156 - wouldn’t take much for rapid inflation over Scandi

 

Until now, I have done what most adults do, if you dont like what you read, ignore it.  I for one do find the guys post rather daft at times and rarely come with any evidence to support his claims.  Then on the other hand, the same can be said with those posting charts ten days out with JFF comments in the hope that they just might verify.

To be honest, the likelihood, is that he may well will be correct with his current observations, with a little license to elaborate without a JFF comment (maybe he should add one).

This guy clearly looks at winter from a perspective that most using this facility dont agree with, doesnt make him any different to the majority of those posting wishful charts from LaLa land that never verify.

If you dont like his observations, move on.  Whatever happened to tolerance, particularly of those with an opposing view to your own. 

 Bidenesque

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Its still a very exciting of period of weather / model watching with the cold period having commenced today lasting until Tues/Weds.

In that time there is the prospect of short notice troughs, secondary lows and other organised areas of precipitation moving across in cold air. Thicknesses are often between 519-524dam with 850's below -5c and low pressure on the scene.

I think I will be unlucky if I don't get to observe another high ground brief snow event this weekend. As a result the camera is charged in readiness and on standby.

As you know I don't follow specific model analysis after 144 hours as its an inefficient use of my time but I do look at ensembles. There is enough interest for me after the 27-30th milder blip to hope for more exciting synoptics as we move into early February.

One final point and without being controversial. I believe way too many members on this forum focus on charts at over 168 hours and actually miss what is going on before then. Only last night heavy snowfall fell briefly across vast swathes of the country briefly, something that will repeated in the next few days. I see the words 'surprise' being mentioned when it actual fact if you spent more time looking at the close range high resolution models that wouldn't have been the case.

Focus on the here and now and not the future and your love for the 'actual weather' will soon return. 

 There is of course room for long term specualtion and I think most realise that comes with strings but that shouldn't detract from what the short term models are showing, particularly the fax charts which rarely get a mention.

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The daffodils have buds on them. Three out of the last 5 day's have been in double figures, and going forward high single or low double figures look set to return after the upcoming cooler couple day's pass - i must stress cooler as 5/6 degrees in January is hardly cold.

Thankfully it hasn't been that wet down here this month with rainfall totals being just shy of 50% the average.

We've had them out at this time of year in some previous winters!

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Looking fairly Atlantic driven this run - almost cold zonality which could please some

 

We've had them out at this time of year in some previous winters!

Early varieties aside they're normally a good indicator of the type of winter we've had down here. Typically they begin to flower mid February however in milder winters they'll start a couple week's earlier and colder winters they might not begin until the end of February. 🙂

Ends on a blocked note with Azores maybe linking with Arctic high although does look like it could become a UK high. Next run will look different see if the ENS are trending colder