Its still a very exciting of period of weather / model watching with the cold period having commenced today lasting until Tues/Weds.
In that time there is the prospect of short notice troughs, secondary lows and other organised areas of precipitation moving across in cold air. Thicknesses are often between 519-524dam with 850's below -5c and low pressure on the scene.
I think I will be unlucky if I don't get to observe another high ground brief snow event this weekend. As a result the camera is charged in readiness and on standby.
As you know I don't follow specific model analysis after 144 hours as its an inefficient use of my time but I do look at ensembles. There is enough interest for me after the 27-30th milder blip to hope for more exciting synoptics as we move into early February.
One final point and without being controversial. I believe way too many members on this forum focus on charts at over 168 hours and actually miss what is going on before then. Only last night heavy snowfall fell briefly across vast swathes of the country briefly, something that will repeated in the next few days. I see the words 'surprise' being mentioned when it actual fact if you spent more time looking at the close range high resolution models that wouldn't have been the case.
Focus on the here and now and not the future and your love for the 'actual weather' will soon return.
Originally Posted by: Gusty