Yes, however we are already in a -AO/NAO and a had a SSW as well minor SW as two reversal of zonal winds which have all failed to provide us and proper sustained cold and snow - how many reversal of zonal winds to we need? We already had HLB prior to this SSW anyway - i just feel since the SSW we have seen anything but cold and more wetter and the SSW has (if anything) ruined things as we already had blocking over Greenland. I was speaking to to Aidan McGivern on Twitter re the last SSW on 5th January asking him why since the SSW we are seeing milder weather and a reduction in HLB: - Here is what he had to say:

Aidan McGivern

 

@aidanweather

22h

Replying to

@SeanMoo88403784

Hi - there was a study last year that looked at past SSWs. In the past, when there was a Greenland high during onset of an SSW, there is often SW'ly winds a couple of weeks later. Very small sample size though, so caution needed, it just goes to show...

 

Every situation is different and you don't always get freezing easterlies. There has been a response in our weather from the SSW, it's just not been a 'beast from the east' style response. More of a southward-displaced jet stream.

If you look at in the simplest term anything that disrupts the usual winter pattern over the Polar region can only have the potential to alter the synoptic patterns below.

Nothing guarantees a severe cold spell but as that tweet says, we have got the jet on a more southerly track and that has produced some wintry weather, particularly further north. That pattern is set to repeat itself again from Friday and through the weekend, with cold conditions spreading south and more chances for snow.

Don't forget that we are also at the point in the solar cycle (sunspots) when blocked periods in winter are more likely but, just like a SSW, that doesn't guarantee it will happen.

 

If you look at in the simplest term anything that disrupts the usual winter pattern over the Polar region can only have the potential to alter the synoptic patterns below.

Nothing guarantees a severe cold spell but as that tweet says, we have got the jet on a more southerly track and that has produced some wintry weather, particularly further north. That pattern is set to repeat itself again from Friday and through the weekend, with cold conditions spreading south and more chances for snow.

Don't forget that we are also at the point in the solar cycle (sunspots) when blocked periods in winter are more likely but, just like a SSW, that doesn't guarantee it will happen.

Yes quite - Similar to that experienced back in January 2019 although the jet took a more southerly track back then and we did get snow come the end of month into 1st Feb. - RobK of Hampshire can remember this well but for us it was rain that turned to heavy snow and was more of a 'slushfest at first with snow only settling on cars and rooftops with all the proper' accumulating snow over Dartmoor and outside of Exeter really. Just saw this tweet from MATT Hugo:

---------------

GFS still going with some snow on Saturday night for the south.

850s of around -5 to -6C but it does have the advantage of arriving overnight.

BBQ's at the ready at day 10 of the GFS (Caveat: Maybe with a brolly)

GFS still going with some snow on Saturday night for the south.

850s of around -5 to -6C but it does have the advantage of arriving overnight.

Looks like UKMO has the same feature. Do we dare to dream?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&run=12&time=96&lid=OP&h=0&mv=1&tr=24#mapref

GFS still going with some snow on Saturday night for the south.

850s of around -5 to -6C but it does have the advantage of arriving overnight.

Within low pressure the 850s are not as important I believe. However my local Meto talks of cloud and rain later on Sat.

Always thought the parallel run is bang on 😂

Yes, it's a thing of beauty at T264 and T+288.

Always thought the parallel run is bang on 😂

If only, was just about to give the models a miss for a few days then up pops a fanciful SH🤔.

Always thought the parallel run is bang on 😂

add a channel low into the mix and I think we have resolved how the models will turn out

Who was it ordered a 1978-style SW blizzard? The GFSP was listening.

 

add a channel low into the mix and I think we have resolved how the models will turn out

One or two?

GFS still going with some snow on Saturday night for the south.

850s of around -5 to -6C but it does have the advantage of arriving overnight.

Probably cold rain unfortunately, uppers undercooked again!

 

 

Probably cold rain unfortunately, uppers undercooked again!

I mentioned in the moaning thread that the iPhone app has been forecasting snow lots this winter, and so far none has arrived. It has been showing snow for Saturday and/or Sunday for a few days now, basically ever since it appeared in the 10-day range.

Met Office currently shows completely dry here all weekend, while BBC has light snow showers turning to sleet, for Sunday morning.

 

I mentioned in the moaning thread that the iPhone app has been forecasting snow lots this winter, and so far none has arrived. It has been showing snow for Saturday and/or Sunday for a few days now, basically ever since it appeared in the 10-day range.

Met Office currently shows completely dry here all weekend, while BBC has light snow showers turning to sleet, for Sunday morning.

We actually got lying snow (in Epping Forest) last weekend from a westerly. It was transient, but excellent for tobogganing while it lasted. We seem to be forecast a mixture of sleet and bone dry this weekend, so probably worth keeping an eye on it. 

Who was it ordered a 1978-style SW blizzard? The GFSP was listening.

 

Nice - i saw this both 12z control and para are on to something post +252z but a long way out to take as Gospel. However, this is the Synoptic charts for Para @270:

Control @ 270z:

Control is a cold outlier @ +t270z:

How come I can't find the para one in the ensembles diagram!? - I want to see if the para run is a cold outlier too?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=1

Because the Para isn't an ensemble member, being rather a beta variant of the Op. I think if you want to look at it there's no alternative to looking at the individual charts.

Ok.... can someone please tell me why I can never post links in any of the forums here?

 

I couldn’t post any links myself. It gets reported as spam.

even now when I quoted another persons post in my reply it got rejected as spam.

only when I removed the link from his post did it get accepted.

many thanks in advance from a forum noob

Not sure if you've resolved this.

If not the only thing I can suggest is that I log in with your credentials to see if there is a problem with the account. 

PM me if you me to help further with this.