Thursday 25 Feb - Saturday 6 Mar

During the last few days of February and the first week of March, many areas of the UK are likely to see more settled conditions. Dry conditions with clear or sunny periods are likely, especially in the south of the UK. Any unsettled weather with corresponding showers or rain are most likely to occur in the north and northwest of the UK. Strong winds may also affect northern and northwestern areas at times, but elsewhere winds will likely be light and, as a result, fog formation overnight may become more prevalent. Temperatures for this period will likely be average or slightly above average for the time of year, although some cold nights with frosts are still possible.

Saturday 6 Mar - Saturday 20 Mar

The UK will probably see a continuation of settled conditions during the beginning of March with predominantly dry weather likely across most areas. Later in the month a more mobile pattern may begin to develop with an increasing likelihood of Atlantic weather systems moving across the UK, bringing wetter conditions. The most unsettled conditions will likely be seen further north. Strong winds may also develop at times, particularly in the northwest, with winds likely lighter overall in the southeast. Temperatures will probably be near normal or slightly above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 26 Feb - Sunday 7 Mar

During the last few days of February and the first week of March, many areas of the UK are likely to see more settled conditions. Dry conditions with clear or sunny periods are likely, especially in the south of the UK. Any unsettled weather with corresponding showers or rain are most likely to occur in the north and northwest of the UK. Strong winds may also affect northern and northwestern areas at times, but elsewhere winds will likely be light and, as a result, fog formation overnight may become more prevalent. Temperatures for this period will likely be average or slightly above average for the time of year, although some cold nights with frosts are still possible.

Sunday 7 Mar - Sunday 21 Mar

The UK will probably see a continuation of settled conditions during the beginning of March with predominantly dry weather likely across most areas. Later in the month a more mobile pattern may begin to develop with an increasing likelihood of Atlantic weather systems moving across the UK, bringing wetter conditions. The most unsettled conditions will likely be seen further north. Strong winds may also develop at times, particularly in the northwest, with winds likely lighter overall in the southeast. Temperatures will probably be near normal or slightly above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 27 Feb - Monday 8 Mar

During the last few days of February and the first week of March, many areas of the UK are likely to see more settled conditions. Dry conditions with clear or sunny periods are likely, especially in the south of the UK. Any unsettled weather with corresponding showers or rain are most likely to occur in the north and northwest of the UK. Strong winds may also affect northern and northwestern areas at times, but elsewhere winds will likely be light and, as a result, fog formation overnight may become more prevalent. Temperatures for this period will likely be average or slightly above average for the time of year, although some cold nights with frosts are still possible.

Sunday 7 Mar - Sunday 21 Mar

The UK will probably see a continuation of settled conditions during the beginning of March with predominantly dry weather likely across most areas. Later in the month a more mobile pattern may begin to develop with an increasing likelihood of Atlantic weather systems moving across the UK, bringing wetter conditions. The most unsettled conditions will likely be seen further north. Strong winds may also develop at times, particularly in the northwest, with winds likely lighter overall in the southeast. Temperatures will probably be near normal or slightly above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 27 Feb - Monday 8 Mar

During the last few days of February and the first week of March, many areas of the UK are likely to see more settled conditions. Dry conditions with clear or sunny periods are likely, especially in the south of the UK. Any unsettled weather with corresponding showers or rain are most likely to occur in the north and northwest of the UK. Strong winds may also affect northern and northwestern areas at times, but elsewhere winds will likely be light and, as a result, fog formation overnight may become more prevalent. Temperatures for this period will likely be average or slightly above average for the time of year, although some cold nights with frosts are still possible.

Sunday 7 Mar - Sunday 21 Mar

The UK will probably see a continuation of settled conditions during the beginning of March with predominantly dry weather likely across most areas. Later in the month a more mobile pattern may begin to develop with an increasing likelihood of Atlantic weather systems moving across the UK, bringing wetter conditions. The most unsettled conditions will likely be seen further north. Strong winds may also develop at times, particularly in the northwest, with winds likely lighter overall in the southeast. Temperatures will probably be near normal or slightly above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

I wonder why the second section talks about the beginning of March when the first part goes out to the 8th? 

Friday 19 Feb - Sunday 28 Feb

Friday will likely be unsettled with strong southwesterly winds bringing heavy rain to many western areas, and the chance of some light rainfall and mild temperatures nearly nationwide. Over the weekend a pattern develops that puts the UK into a broad northwest to southeast split, with the northwest more likely to see rainfall and strong winds at times, and the east and southeast more likely to remain drier, fine, and settled. Under these more settled conditions, we may see temperatures falling back to average, this especially so by night with an increased incidence of frost and fog. A return to widespread frosts but also an increased but very uncertain chance of snow are possible particularly in the North and East. Any snowfall most likely restricted to the Scottish mountains.

Sunday 28 Feb - Sunday 14 Mar

Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with likely drier and more settled conditions prevailing. Temperatures are likely to return back to around, if not below-average with a slightly greater chance of cold spells during this time, bringing an increased threat of widespread frost and a very uncertain chance of snow. Towards mid-March, there are signs of returning to a more unsettled period, with milder interludes more likely once more.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

This was last week issued on 15th February - and we have almost had a 8 days over exceptionally mild and at times wet weather - I am surprised the Met office never picked up on this prolonged mild period are you - there is nothing in the above long range forecast which suggested a return to prolonged mild weather, if anything they stated the opposite - drier with frost becoming widespread and temperatures returning to average or below and then in the second part a higher greater chance of cold spells with an increased threat of widespread frost?

Just saying...

Sunday 28 Feb - Tuesday 9 Mar

During Sunday and the first week of March, many areas of the UK are likely to see more settled conditions. Dry conditions with clear or sunny periods are likely, especially in the south of the UK. Any unsettled weather with corresponding showers or rain are most likely to occur in the north and northwest of the UK. Strong winds may also affect northern and northwestern areas at times, but elsewhere winds will likely be light and, as a result, fog formation overnight may become more prevalent. Temperatures for this period will likely be average or slightly above average for the time of year, although some cold nights with frosts developing in places are still possible.

Tuesday 9 Mar - Tuesday 23 Mar

The UK will probably see a continuation of settled conditions during the beginning of March with predominantly dry weather likely across most areas. Later in the month a more mobile pattern may begin to develop with an increasing likelihood of Atlantic weather systems moving across the UK, bringing wetter conditions. The most unsettled conditions will likely be seen further north. Strong winds may also develop at times, particularly in the northwest, with winds likely lighter overall in the southeast. Temperatures will probably be near normal or slightly above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 1 Mar - Wednesday 10 Mar

During the first week of March, many areas of the UK are likely to see a continuation of settled weather. Dry conditions with clear or sunny periods are likely, especially in the south of the UK. Any unsettled weather with corresponding showers or rain are most likely to occur in the north and northwest of the UK. Strong winds may also affect northern and northwestern areas at times, but elsewhere winds will likely be light and, as a result, fog formation overnight may become more prevalent. Temperatures for this period will likely be average or slightly above average for the time of year, although some cold nights with frosts developing in places are still possible.

Wednesday 10 Mar - Wednesday 24 Mar

By mid-March and the latter period of the month, a more mobile pattern may begin to develop with an increasing likelihood of Atlantic weather systems moving across the UK, bringing wetter conditions. The most unsettled conditions will likely be seen further north with the driest conditions further south. Strong winds may also develop at times, particularly in the northwest, with winds likely lighter overall in the southeast. Temperatures will probably be near average overall.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

This was last week issued on 15th February - and we have almost had a 8 days over exceptionally mild and at times wet weather - I am surprised the Met office never picked up on this prolonged mild period are you - there is nothing in the above long range forecast which suggested a return to prolonged mild weather, if anything they stated the opposite - drier with frost becoming widespread and temperatures returning to average or below and then in the second part a higher greater chance of cold spells with an increased threat of widespread frost?

Just saying...

Seems fair enough to me - the next 9 days overnight lows here are 1,1,2,2,3,3,3,2,3 so certainly some grass frosts on the way and quite possibly some fog. Yes it will be sunny and possibly into the low teens by day but certainly still cold at night.

Tuesday 2 Mar - Thursday 11 Mar

High confidence for this period as high pressure likely to be close to, or over the UK giving a mostly settled outlook, with any uncertainty existing with respect to the orientation of this high. Currently the strongest signals suggest an initial placement over the south of the UK before transferring to the north later next week. This means that most areas will stay fine and dry with plenty of sunny spells, and that any spells of rain and stronger winds are most likely to the far north and west of the UK where front incursions are most likely. Temperatures are likely to remain around average for this time of year. Where skies clear overnight frost and fog patches may become prevalent.

Thursday 11 Mar - Thursday 25 Mar

Settled conditions are likely to continue, though Atlantic frontal systems may make more progress across the country at times, introducing occasional wetter weather. However, the overall signal suggests drier than average weather with near normal temperatures are most likely for the rest of the period, though occasional colder spells cannot be ruled out.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

The Atlantic Ocean circulation that underpins the Gulf Stream, the weather system that brings warm and mild weather to Europe, is at its weakest in more than a millennium, and climate breakdown is the probable cause, according to new data.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/25/atlantic-ocean-circulation-at-weakest-in-a-millennium-say-scientists

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Dry and sunny at times, becoming more unsettled

_________________________________

Thursday 25 February – Sunday 28 February

Drier as high pressure arrives.

Wednesday's cold front will finally push away to the southeast on Thursday, with high pressure building in behind it. This will dry things out for Scotland and Northern Ireland, but there might be some patchy rain on Thursday for England and Wales. The cold front will bring some fresher Atlantic air into England, easing the very mild temperatures from the first half of the week. Winds will gradually ease as well, becoming light and variable across most of the UK, although northern coasts may cling on to a moderate breeze for a few more days.

By Friday and into the weekend, high pressure will become the dominant weather feature, bringing dry and often sunny weather with temperatures near-normal, for the time of year. There are also likely to be some crisp mornings following chilly nights with frost in places. Fog will also become more likely over the weekend with light winds and clear skies overnight.

Monday 1 March – Sunday 7 March

Often dry and sunny to start meteorological spring

High pressure will remain the dominant feature for the first week of March but there is some uncertainty over its exact positioning, which is rather significant to the forecast.

It is most likely that the dry and relatively calm weather will continue throughout the week with temperatures falling near-normal or slightly below by the end of the week. Nights will tend to be chilly and perhaps foggy with crisp but fine and largely sunny days. Scotland will tend to be a bit cloudier but will also see plenty of sun at times too.

The high pressure should drift westwards towards Ireland and the East Atlantic eventually. There is lower confidence on how quickly this will occur, but it is more likely to happen towards the end of the week as we draw in chillier air from the North Atlantic. As a result there is a risk of below-normal temperatures by the weekend as winds shift to a northerly or northwesterly direction.

If high pressure remains where it is, temperatures could remain slightly above average as colder airflows stay to the east. There are no signals for any sharp or prolonged cold in the models, or indeed any prolonged warmth as we reach the end of February.

Monday 8 March – Sunday 21 March

Cooler for a time before turning unsettled again

For the second week of March, high pressure will begin to shift away to the west. This will allow the colder flows from northeast Europe to move in, bringing fresher Atlantic air from the north or northwest. Temperatures will tend to dip below average, but it will still be drier than normal with high pressure close enough to keep any strong weather fronts away to the north. However, it won't be quite as dry as the first week of March, and some rain is likely at times.

Heading through mid-March and beyond, high pressure is expected to move away, allowing an area of low pressure to develop over western and northwestern Europe, leading to more unsettled and changeable conditions. Temperatures will also vary, with plenty of mild spells followed by colder snaps. It's uncertain which temperature trend will win out at the moment, but we favour milder days to slightly outnumber the colder ones.

Further ahead

Will high pressure stay with us and how will it influence the UK forecast?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Dry and sunny at times, becoming more unsettled

_________________________________

Thursday 25 February – Sunday 28 February

Drier as high pressure arrives.

Wednesday's cold front will finally push away to the southeast on Thursday, with high pressure building in behind it. This will dry things out for Scotland and Northern Ireland, but there might be some patchy rain on Thursday for England and Wales. The cold front will bring some fresher Atlantic air into England, easing the very mild temperatures from the first half of the week. Winds will gradually ease as well, becoming light and variable across most of the UK, although northern coasts may cling on to a moderate breeze for a few more days.

By Friday and into the weekend, high pressure will become the dominant weather feature, bringing dry and often sunny weather with temperatures near-normal, for the time of year. There are also likely to be some crisp mornings following chilly nights with frost in places. Fog will also become more likely over the weekend with light winds and clear skies overnight.

Monday 1 March – Sunday 7 March

Often dry and sunny to start meteorological spring

High pressure will remain the dominant feature for the first week of March but there is some uncertainty over its exact positioning, which is rather significant to the forecast.

It is most likely that the dry and relatively calm weather will continue throughout the week with temperatures falling near-normal or slightly below by the end of the week. Nights will tend to be chilly and perhaps foggy with crisp but fine and largely sunny days. Scotland will tend to be a bit cloudier but will also see plenty of sun at times too.

The high pressure should drift westwards towards Ireland and the East Atlantic eventually. There is lower confidence on how quickly this will occur, but it is more likely to happen towards the end of the week as we draw in chillier air from the North Atlantic. As a result there is a risk of below-normal temperatures by the weekend as winds shift to a northerly or northwesterly direction.

If high pressure remains where it is, temperatures could remain slightly above average as colder airflows stay to the east. There are no signals for any sharp or prolonged cold in the models, or indeed any prolonged warmth as we reach the end of February.

Monday 8 March – Sunday 21 March

Cooler for a time before turning unsettled again

For the second week of March, high pressure will begin to shift away to the west. This will allow the colder flows from northeast Europe to move in, bringing fresher Atlantic air from the north or northwest. Temperatures will tend to dip below average, but it will still be drier than normal with high pressure close enough to keep any strong weather fronts away to the north. However, it won't be quite as dry as the first week of March, and some rain is likely at times.

Heading through mid-March and beyond, high pressure is expected to move away, allowing an area of low pressure to develop over western and northwestern Europe, leading to more unsettled and changeable conditions. Temperatures will also vary, with plenty of mild spells followed by colder snaps. It's uncertain which temperature trend will win out at the moment, but we favour milder days to slightly outnumber the colder ones.

Further ahead

Will high pressure stay with us and how will it influence the UK forecast?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

If we get colder air masses or flows' as they said from the north eastern Europe then how can it lead to Atlantic air from the north or north west?

What I think they mean is cold zonality?

http://news.sky.com/story/weakest-gulf-stream-in-1000-years-could-bring-more-extreme-winters-to-uk-and-europe-says-study-12228956

Is this the biggest cold ramp of all time?

 

Is this the biggest cold ramp of all time?

 

Brian would say 'News Carousel'.

 

Brian would say 'News Carousel'.

 

It's a confusing article as it mentions a 'dip' in the flow in the mid 20th century. Well that's about 60-70 years ago. What's happened since then is surely more important as an indicator for future trends because it is since the mid 1900s that CO2 emissions and global temperature rises have really accelerated. If there has been no discernible change in Gulf Stream flows since then, this article is based on pure speculation. Although a continued slow down can never be ruled out of course. 

Wednesday 3 Mar - Friday 12 Mar

High confidence for this period as local high pressure is likely to give a mostly settled outlook, with any uncertainty existing with respect to the orientation of this high. Currently the signal suggest a placement over the south of the UK before transferring to the north later next week. This means most areas will stay fine and dry with plenty of sunny spells, and that any spells of rain and stronger winds are most likely to the far north and west of the UK where front incursions are most likely. Temperatures are likely to remain around average for this time of year, however a short cold spell may occur near the end of this period. Where skies clear overnight frost and fog patches may become prevalent.

Friday 12 Mar - Friday 26 Mar

Settled conditions are likely at the start of the period, though Atlantic frontal systems may make more progress across the country at times, introducing occasional wetter weather. This may be associated with near normal to colder than normal conditions for a time. After this however, a trend towards more unsettled conditions through the middle part of March is signalled with spells of rain / showers but with some drier interludes. Rain perhaps becoming more confined to the north and west later with the south and east seeing some more prolonged settled periods. Temperatures most likely to remain around or a little above average. Whilst there are no signals for prolonged cold, some brief colder intervals continue to remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

I blame Brian entirely ...... 

UK weather: Brits set to endure 5-day 'snowblast' and polar bomb to bring 'White Easter'

~ ~ ~

Charts by Weather Outlook predict the bone-chilling temperatures will grip overnight for a number of days, with parts of the Scottish Highlands enduring the cold around March 13.