BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Dry and sunny at times, becoming more unsettled
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Thursday 25 February – Sunday 28 February
Drier as high pressure arrives.
Wednesday's cold front will finally push away to the southeast on Thursday, with high pressure building in behind it. This will dry things out for Scotland and Northern Ireland, but there might be some patchy rain on Thursday for England and Wales. The cold front will bring some fresher Atlantic air into England, easing the very mild temperatures from the first half of the week. Winds will gradually ease as well, becoming light and variable across most of the UK, although northern coasts may cling on to a moderate breeze for a few more days.
By Friday and into the weekend, high pressure will become the dominant weather feature, bringing dry and often sunny weather with temperatures near-normal, for the time of year. There are also likely to be some crisp mornings following chilly nights with frost in places. Fog will also become more likely over the weekend with light winds and clear skies overnight.
Monday 1 March – Sunday 7 March
Often dry and sunny to start meteorological spring
High pressure will remain the dominant feature for the first week of March but there is some uncertainty over its exact positioning, which is rather significant to the forecast.
It is most likely that the dry and relatively calm weather will continue throughout the week with temperatures falling near-normal or slightly below by the end of the week. Nights will tend to be chilly and perhaps foggy with crisp but fine and largely sunny days. Scotland will tend to be a bit cloudier but will also see plenty of sun at times too.
The high pressure should drift westwards towards Ireland and the East Atlantic eventually. There is lower confidence on how quickly this will occur, but it is more likely to happen towards the end of the week as we draw in chillier air from the North Atlantic. As a result there is a risk of below-normal temperatures by the weekend as winds shift to a northerly or northwesterly direction.
If high pressure remains where it is, temperatures could remain slightly above average as colder airflows stay to the east. There are no signals for any sharp or prolonged cold in the models, or indeed any prolonged warmth as we reach the end of February.
Monday 8 March – Sunday 21 March
Cooler for a time before turning unsettled again
For the second week of March, high pressure will begin to shift away to the west. This will allow the colder flows from northeast Europe to move in, bringing fresher Atlantic air from the north or northwest. Temperatures will tend to dip below average, but it will still be drier than normal with high pressure close enough to keep any strong weather fronts away to the north. However, it won't be quite as dry as the first week of March, and some rain is likely at times.
Heading through mid-March and beyond, high pressure is expected to move away, allowing an area of low pressure to develop over western and northwestern Europe, leading to more unsettled and changeable conditions. Temperatures will also vary, with plenty of mild spells followed by colder snaps. It's uncertain which temperature trend will win out at the moment, but we favour milder days to slightly outnumber the colder ones.
Further ahead
Will high pressure stay with us and how will it influence the UK forecast?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook