what are these charts of polar bombs they talk of?

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Is this the biggest cold ramp of all time?

 

No, it's just some more research backing up what mainstream science has been saying for several decades, i.e. that the NAD ('Gulf Stream') is likely to weaken due to increasing ingress of melt water into the sinking zones, interrupting the mechanism that helps drive the NAD (cooling salt water sinks; cool fresh water doesn't).

But it's just one part of the jigsaw: the Earth will continue to spin the same way and weather will continue to arrive more from a westerly quadrant.

Of more concern is what happens to all that heat that has so far been redistributed to more northern latitudes and what knock-on impacts might be caused by disrupting a major ocean current?

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Thursday 4 Mar - Saturday 13 Mar

Confidence is high for this period as local high pressure is expected to give a mostly settled outlook, with any uncertainty being associated with the orientation of this high. Current signals suggest a placement over the south of the UK before transferring to the north later next week. Consequently, most areas will stay fine and dry with plenty of sunny spells, with any spells of rain and stronger winds are most likely to occur in the far north and west of the UK where front incursions are most likely. Where skies clear overnight frost and fog patches may become prevalent. Temperatures are likely to remain around average for the time of year, however a short colder spell is likely to occur at the end of next week for a time.

Saturday 13 Mar - Saturday 27 Mar

Settled conditions are likely to continue at the start of the period, though Atlantic frontal systems may make more progress across the country at times, introducing occasional wetter weather. This may be associated with around normal to colder than normal conditions for a time. After this however, a trend towards more unsettled conditions through the middle part of March is signalled with spells of rain and showers but with some drier interludes. Rain perhaps becoming more confined to the north and west later with the south and east seeing some more prolonged settled periods. Temperatures are most likely to remain around or a little above average and whilst there are no signals for prolonged cold, some brief colder intervals continue to remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Friday 5 Mar - Sunday 14 Mar

Confidence is high for this period as local high pressure is expected to give a mostly settled outlook. With the high most likely centred over Scotland, this will bring a cold northerly air flow and a possibility of light sleet and snow flurries for a time into northern and eastern coasts. Otherwise most areas will stay fine and dry with plenty of sunny spells. Any spells of rain and stronger winds are most likely to occur in the north and west where front incursions are most likely, or into the south around the base of the high. Where skies clear overnight, frost and fog patches may become prevalent. Temperatures are likely to start off colder than normal, due to the northerly air flow, before slowly returning to around average.

Sunday 14 Mar - Sunday 28 Mar

By the middle of March we see a trend towards more unsettled conditions with spells of rain and showers but with some drier interludes. Rain perhaps becoming more confined to the north and west at times with the south and east seeing some more prolonged settled periods. Temperatures are most likely to remain around or a little above average and whilst there are no signals for prolonged cold, some brief colder intervals continue to remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 6 Mar - Monday 15 Mar

High pressure is expected to dominate at first, centred over England bringing dry and rather cold conditions over the bulk of the UK. Cloud and spells of rain will gradually push into the far northwest during Saturday. Most areas staying fine and dry with plenty of sunny spells. Feeling rather cold, with widespread overnight frosts. Unsettled conditions are likely to establish across the northwest with spells of rain and stronger winds. Southern and eastern areas remaining dry and settled for a time, with a risk of mist and fog patches. A trend towards more unsettled conditions across the UK is likely from early next week, with spells of rain and showers but also some drier interludes at times. Temperatures trending from rather cold to around average.

Monday 15 Mar - Monday 29 Mar

During the middle of March unsettled conditions look likely to continue across the UK, with spells of rain and showers but also some drier and brighter interludes at times. Into the latter part of March unsettled conditions perhaps becoming more confined to the north and west with the south and east seeing more settled conditions. Temperatures are most likely to remain near to or slightly above average, with any colder intervals short lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Sunday 7 Mar - Tuesday 16 Mar

High pressure is expected to slowly sink southwards during Sunday with settled conditions confined to the far southeast of the UK, as cloud and spells of rain gradually push in from the northwest. A trend towards more unsettled conditions widely across the UK is likely through the beginning of next week, with spells of rain and showers spreading in from the west but also with some drier and brighter interludes at times. Through this period there is potential for windy conditions with the strongest winds most likely in the west and northwest of the UK. Temperatures are expected to trend from rather cold at first to closer to average, perhaps mild at times in the south.

Tuesday 16 Mar - Tuesday 30 Mar

During the middle of March unsettled conditions look likely to continue across the UK, with spells of rain and showers but also some drier and brighter interludes at times especially in the south. Into the latter part of March unsettled conditions perhaps becoming more confined to the north and west with the south and east seeing more settled conditions. Temperatures are most likely to remain near to or slightly above average, with any colder intervals from the north short lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

The Mirror reporting —10dc and snow for the weekend. Does anyone really expect -10?

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Monday 8 Mar - Wednesday 17 Mar

Conditions possibly staying fine with dry and sunny intervals across some central and eastern areas on Monday, but soon a trend towards more unsettled conditions widely across the UK is likely through the beginning of next week. Spells of rain and showers will spread in from the west, with some snow possible on northern high ground. However, there may also be some drier and brighter interludes at times. Throughout this period there is a potential for windy conditions, with the strongest winds most likely to occur in the west and northwest of the UK. Temperatures are expected to trend close to average, although some overnight frosts are possible, mainly in northern parts of the country.

Wednesday 17 Mar - Wednesday 31 Mar

During the middle of March unsettled conditions look likely to continue across the UK, with spells of rain and showers but also some drier and brighter interludes at times especially in the south. Into the latter part of March unsettled conditions perhaps becoming more confined to the north and west with the south and east seeing more settled conditions. Temperatures are most likely to remain near to or slightly above average, with any colder intervals from the north short lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Was this heavy rain today forecast for the South East. I'm sure I saw early morning fog clearing to sunny periods and 11C? I've got rain and 6.5C.

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Turning more unsettled after a dry start.

_________________________________

Wednesday 3 March – Sunday 7 March

Mostly dry but turning cold for the weekend.

With high pressure overhead, the first week of meteorological spring has so far been a very dry. Low cloud is developing over the North Sea and slowly drifting into England and Wales, as well as eastern parts of Scotland. The further north and west you go, the better your chances are of more consistent sunshine. The weather gets slightly complicated on Wednesday and Thursday, as a weak low pressure system tracks across southern England. This will bring some scattered sharp showers (and perhaps even one or two rumbles of thunder) to southern areas before it clears away.

The Midlands and further north will escape any rain, but will likely stay dull with low cloud moving in from the east. From Friday and through the weekend, the weather pattern will shift slightly with high pressure building into Ireland. This will bring a brisk northerly wind and a weak cold front into the country from the northeast. The weak front will mostly bring rain, but some snow flurries are possible on hills in Scotland. Temperatures over the weekend will fall well below average for a few days.

There will be widespread frosts overnight. However, with high pressure nearby it will be mostly dry. By Sunday afternoon and evening, the next frontal system will begin to push in from the northwest. This may bring some late-weekend rain or hill snow to northern areas. The timing of this front is still a bit uncertain, and it may hold off until next week if high pressure remains strong.

Monday 8 March – Sunday 14 March

Cooler, unsettled, and perhaps very wet.

For the second week of March, high pressure is expected to be much less influential as it builds over the Azores - a more typical spot for it to be this time of year.
As it moves further away, a large-scale trough of low pressure is expected to develop over Northwest Europe. Low pressure systems will move through from the west or northwest throughout the week as this large-scale trough deepens. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that directs weather fronts, will tend to be just south of the UK through the week.

This means we can tap into polar air from near Iceland more easily. Therefore, temperatures will tend to be near or a bit below average, especially for Scotland.
Warm fronts will still bring some milder air in at times. But these will tend to be mainly for the southern parts of the country and only last around one day or two.
There are some signals in the computer models for a potential stormy weather during the middle of the week. This comes with a risk of some heavy rain and strong winds. Timing the low pressure system at this range is still a bit tricky. Everything will have to line up perfectly in the atmosphere to get the stormiest conditions.
At the moment, we expect an unsettled week with rainfall and winds a bit above normal.

Frequent weather fronts will sweep through the UK. There is a chance that high pressure sticks around too close to Western Europe and instead sends all these weather fronts into Scandinavia. This will keep us dry and a bit colder than normal. This has perhaps a 25% chance of panning out, with stronger signals for the changeable and wet pattern to develop.

Monday 15 March – Sunday 28 March

Staying rather unsettled and changeable

The second half of March is shaping up to be locked into a fairly consistent large-scale weather pattern for Northern Europe, including the UK. We are expecting high pressure to be a dominant feature in the Central Atlantic. This will occasionally extend into Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Sea. Meanwhile, low pressure will persist near Greenland and Iceland as well as close to Scandinavia and Western Russia. This will send weather fronts through Northern Europe frequently.
This will bring unsettled and changeable temperatures, which is pretty typical for a British spring.

Computer models are still showing some signals for high pressure to be more tenacious and stick around in Western Europe throughout the entire month. We do not expect this to occur, but the signals in the computer models are too strong to ignore completely. There is perhaps a thirty-five percent risk that we end up more in a high pressure "blocked" pattern. These are called "blocked" pattern due to the high pressure acting as a roadblock to incoming fronts, keeping them off in the Atlantic.

As such, this is a dry and mild pattern for us. There aren't any strong signals for widespread cold or warmth in late March. Temperatures will likely be changeable day-to-day. However, if that large-scale low pressure system we expect in Scandinavia instead drifts over us, temperatures will tend to be more consistent and a bit below average (while still being unsettled). To summarise, March should trend more spring-like as we head to the later part of the month. There will be unsettled and changeable pattern locking in by mid-month.

Further ahead

We will try and pin down some specifics on just how storm things might turn next week, and see if any light can be shed on the unsettled pattern for the rest of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook?at_custom1=[post+type]&at_custom2=twitter&at_medium=custom7&at_campaign=64&at_custom3=bbc_weather&at_custom4=718022D6-7C38-11EB-A1AD-5E280EDC252D

 

 

No, it's just some more research backing up what mainstream science has been saying for several decades, i.e. that the NAD ('Gulf Stream') is likely to weaken due to increasing ingress of melt water into the sinking zones, interrupting the mechanism that helps drive the NAD (cooling salt water sinks; cool fresh water doesn't).

But it's just one part of the jigsaw: the Earth will continue to spin the same way and weather will continue to arrive more from a westerly quadrant.

Of more concern is what happens to all that heat that has so far been redistributed to more northern latitudes and what knock-on impacts might be caused by disrupting a major ocean current?

Yes - this phenomenon was put forward as a possible cause of the little ice age, after an ice dam melt allowed a lake to empty into Baffin, and help to shut down the NAD suddenly.

The current rapid ice sheet melt may cause the same, but likely the speed is slower and the effects drawn out over time, and not result in a complete shut down. The effect may be simply to mask the effects of climate change on NW Europe somewhat for a few decades, but eventually, once the ice is gone, the current will resume and the full effects on NW Europe and the UK will be felt - turning us into a Mediterranean type climate by then.

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Tuesday 9 Mar - Thursday 18 Mar

Outbreaks of heavier rain will make their way in from the west on Tuesday, as a trend towards more unsettled conditions widely across the UK is likely next week. Further spells of rain and showers will continue spreading in from the west, with some snow possible on high ground in northern parts of the country. However, there may also be some drier and brighter interludes at times. Throughout this period there is an ongoing potential for windy conditions, with the strongest winds most likely to occur in the west and northwest of the UK. Temperatures are expected to trend close to average, although some overnight frosts are still possible, mainly in northern parts of the country.

Thursday 18 Mar - Thursday 1 Apr

During the middle of March unsettled conditions look likely to continue across the UK, with spells of rain and showers but also some drier and brighter interludes at times especially in the south. Into the latter part of March unsettled conditions perhaps becoming more confined to the north and west with the south and east seeing more settled conditions. Temperatures are most likely to remain near to or slightly above average, with any colder intervals from the north short lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

More drivel from Stav. Don't think he gets it really. He said after this fine and settled period a cold front will move south overnight bringing colder weather - down to 8C here. Well I know it pissed down in London, here and Exeter at least yesterday, which is pretty unsettled. Yesterday was 7.5C max and today 6.1C max. Last time I looked at a thermometer 8C was warmer than 6.1C ! Just because he sees a cold front doesn't automatically mean it is going to be colder!

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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/02/climate/atlantic-ocean-climate-change.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur 

An interesting piece with lots of nice graphics. And mentions that counterintuitively the "cold blob" in the North Atlantic could actually be linked to heatwaves in western Europe.

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Wednesday 10 Mar - Friday 19 Mar

Outbreaks of heavy rain and strong winds, potentially very strong in the south, will continue to make their way in from the west on Wednesday. A trend towards more unsettled conditions widely across the UK is then likely next week. Further spells of rain and showers will continue spreading in from the west, with some snow possible on high ground in northern parts of the country. However, there may also be some drier and brighter interludes at times. Throughout this period there is an ongoing potential for windy conditions, with the strongest winds most likely to occur in the west and northwest of the UK. Temperatures are expected to trend close to average, although some overnight frosts are still possible, mainly in northern parts of the country.

Friday 19 Mar - Friday 2 Apr

During the middle of March unsettled conditions look likely to continue across the UK, with spells of rain and showers but also some drier and brighter interludes at times especially in the south. Into the latter part of March unsettled conditions perhaps becoming more confined to the north and west with the south and east seeing more settled conditions. Temperatures are most likely to remain near to or slightly above average, with any colder intervals from the north short lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

who is this ‘Owain’ presenting weather on BBC News. Sounds Welsh and confident as if perhaps been doing on regional for a while. And a bright outfit...

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who is this ‘Owain’ presenting weather on BBC News. Sounds Welsh and confident as if perhaps been doing on regional for a while. And a bright outfit...

 

He presented weather on Look North Leeds along with Paul Hudson

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Unsettled and occasionally stormy start to spring.

_________________________________

Saturday 6 March – Sunday 14 March

Cold weekend with an unsettled week ahead.

This weekend we will see high pressure overhead keeping things largely dry and calm. It will also be rather cloudy and cold. Cloud will tend to be variable with some areas staying dull all weekend and others seeing better sunny spells. The best of the brightest weather is likely along the western and southern coasts. Eastern coasts and middle part of England may have a greater chance of prolonged dull weather. At the same time, temperatures will be below normal with a risk of some very sharp frosts, where there are clear skies overnight. Next week, we will see the weather pattern change as high pressure declines over Northwest Europe.

This will shift away to the west in the Atlantic allowing low pressure systems to move in by Tuesday. This will create a stormy weather by the middle of the week. We may see a pair of low pressure systems between Tuesday and Thursday that will bring some heavy rain and potentially strong winds for some. There is still uncertainty on exactly where the strong winds will end up. However, confidence is high for a very wet few days at least.

At the same time, the lows will bring in some milder sub-tropical air from the central Atlantic, so temperatures will briefly rise above average. Towards the end of the week and following weekend, low pressure will linger nearby or overhead, keeping things unsettled and breezy. However, it will be less wet and windy than the stormy middle of the week. The jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that directs weather fronts, will tend to be nearby or just to the south. That means temperatures will be near or a bit below average, with the coldest weather in northern areas.

Monday 15 March – Sunday 21 March

Staying unsettled but turning a bit less wet.

The second half of March will continue to be unsettled as Atlantic weather fronts are frequently able to get into the UK. However, around the middle of the month, high pressure in the Atlantic will briefly shifts into the eastern parts of North America. Meanwhile, low pressure area over the UK will shift away to the northwest and be nearer to Iceland. This is still an unsettled pattern for us, but it likely won't be as stormy as next week with high pressure lurking nearby to the south. Temperatures are also likely to be a bit less cold as winds are more westerly or south-westerly and the jet stream is perhaps slightly north of us.

Colder conditions are most likely to be in Scotland with more frequent weather fronts. However, there should still be some changeability throughout the week as one or two fronts are powerful enough to reach across the entire country. An alternate scenario for this week could see high pressure becoming a bit more influential over the UK. This would create a drier pattern for the country with temperatures lingering a bit above average, although not especially warm. Computer models are keen on this pattern, but there is not much support for it in our historical analogues. These are statistical forecasts where we examine previous years that saw similar weather pattern to what we have observed in the past few months.

Monday 22 March – Sunday 4 April

A typical British spring looks to be in store.

For the end of March and first part of April, the unsettled pattern is expected to continue. While we saw the large-scale low pressure area shift to the northwest in the middle of the month, it looks like the low will return later in the month. As this low pressure centre drifts back towards Europe, conditions are expected to become wetter across the country with more volatility in the temperatures. There is greater potential for some stronger weather fronts to push in from the Atlantic.
This may bring in some stormy days again during the week. It is likely to be a similar pattern to what we expect for next week's weather.

Therefore, it will be unsettled with temperatures near normal, but with some variability as fronts move in. Pinning down the timing of fronts at this range is not something that is within our ability to accurately forecast. However, there is reasonable support for the unsettled pattern. Computer models are struggling with the position and strength of high pressure, so in these situations it is often useful to look at our larger scale statistical forecasts. Strong signals for Pacific Ocean temperature anomalies in the tropics as well as expected anomalously high tropical rainfall in Africa in mid-March all support a more unsettled outlook for the next month in the UK. Similar to the middle of the month, the main risk scenario for the end of March and start of April is more dominant high pressure. This would be a drier pattern for the UK with temperatures a bit above average. There is perhaps a thirty percent chance of this pattern developing instead.

Further ahead

We will examine the second half of March with fresh data and hope to pin down any potential for a respite in the unsettled pattern.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Thursday 11 Mar - Saturday 20 Mar

Remaining unsettled for most on Thursday with frequent blustery showers, winds could reach severe gale around some coasts with gales also possible inland. The unsettled theme is then likely to remain through the following weekend with further spells of rain and showers, with some snow possible on high ground in northern parts of the country. Into the following week, there may be a more settled, drier and brighter interlude for at least southern areas. Thereafter conditions look mixed or changeable with further potential for rain and strong winds, with these most likely across the west and northwest of the UK. Temperatures are expected to trend close to average with overnight frosts still possible, especially during settled interludes.

Saturday 20 Mar - Saturday 3 Apr

Into the latter part of March, unsettled conditions are likely to be increasingly confined to the north and west of the UK, with the south and east probably seeing more settled conditions. Into the beginning of April, there is a chance that the settled conditions will become more widespread to bring some drier spells of weather for most. Temperatures are most likely to remain near to or slightly above average, with any colder or cooler intervals short-lived.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

who is this ‘Owain’ presenting weather on BBC News. Sounds Welsh and confident as if perhaps been doing on regional for a while. And a bright outfit...

He does the regional weather on North West Tonight. A very decent replacement for Dianne Oxberry (RIP).

He knows his stuff and comes across as a very nice bloke. 

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