I think that it should come as no surprise that the Met Office long range has trended milder after going for cold - it's what most of the long range models now show.

I very much like the way that they deliberately don't jump on every twist and turn of the long range output - they could've changed it 3 or 4 days ago when the output started to change but they deliberately don't. They are not 'behind' as some might say, instead they respond to emerging trends once they become established as such. It's just sensible IMHO and gives a more balanced picture of the potential weather ahead rather than daily flip flopping.

However whether they change after each model run and flip flop, or wait for trends as you rightfully suggest, they are totally pointless and apart from fuelling the media with their poor accuracy which I assume in turn affects many businesses that rely (in a normal year) on accuracy for manufacturing goods relating to hot, cold, dry, wet weather or the Uk holiday trade, they should be issued with a warning to the general public, that your guess on what the weather may be in 3-4 weeks may be as good as this! ...let’s hope that vast sums of money are not wasted on producing these forecasts. 

Not quite sure what caused this “icicle tree” near me. The article doesn’t make it clear. Unfortunately I didn’t see the article until last night and it is probably melted by now.

https://www.hampshirelive.news/news/hampshire-news/gallery/incredible-fleet-ice-tree-becomes-5002190

I have seen similar formations when cars have driven through puddles and splashed water over the trees, so maybe that is it. 

Not quite sure what caused this “icicle tree” near me. The article doesn’t make it clear. Unfortunately I didn’t see the article until last night and it is probably melted by now.

https://www.hampshirelive.news/news/hampshire-news/gallery/incredible-fleet-ice-tree-becomes-5002190 

In these situations it is usually as a result of traffic driving through a puddle which splashes on to the nearby very cold surfaces.

On a different matter, some of the (GFS-based) automated output has snow for parts of Scotland (including Glasgow and Aberdeen) for Wednesday into Thursday. I think “milder” best describes the coming days rather than mild but hopefully things will improve for the weekend.

Indeed it has to be frozen road spray. I've seen it many times where a spring or puddle is driven through. The faster the vehicle the higher the spray.

The official explanation I think is wrong. 

Friday 19 Feb - Sunday 28 Feb

Friday will likely be unsettled with strong southwesterly winds bringing heavy rain to many western areas, and the chance of some light rainfall and mild temperatures nearly nationwide. Over the weekend a pattern develops that puts the UK into a broad northwest to southeast split, with the northwest more likely to see rainfall and strong winds at times, and the east and southeast more likely to remain drier, fine, and settled. Under these more settled conditions, we may see temperatures falling back to average, this especially so by night with an increased incidence of frost and fog. A return to widespread frosts but also an increased but very uncertain chance of snow are possible particularly in the North and East. Any snowfall most likely restricted to the Scottish mountains.

Sunday 28 Feb - Sunday 14 Mar

Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with likely drier and more settled conditions prevailing. Temperatures are likely to return back to around, if not below-average with a slightly greater chance of cold spells during this time, bringing an increased threat of widespread frost and a very uncertain chance of snow. Towards mid-March, there are signs of returning to a more unsettled period, with milder interludes more likely once more.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

If it was in doubt Nick Miller is a coldie. He ended the Countryfile forecast  with "the end to the rare nowadays cold spell and back to mild and wet. Which do you prefer? (wry knowing smile)"

Saturday 20 Feb - Monday 1 Mar

Outbreaks of rain will spread across northern and some western areas of the UK during Saturday, with sunny spells and very mild conditions for the southeast. Into the following week a pattern develops that puts the UK into a broad northwest to southeast split, with the northwest more likely to see rainfall and strong winds at times, and the east and southeast more likely to remain dry, fine, and settled. By the end of February and into early March most of the UK will probably become dry as high pressure becomes dominant, although overnight fog will start to become more likely. Temperatures are likely to be mild across the bulk of the UK during this period.

Monday 1 Mar - Monday 15 Mar

Into March there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with dry and settled conditions most likely. Temperatures are likely to return to around normal, perhaps below-average with a slightly greater chance of cold spells during this time, bringing an increased chance of overnight frost and an uncertain chance of snow. Towards mid-March there are signs of a change to more unsettled and milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 21 Feb - Tuesday 2 Mar

Outbreaks of rain and strong winds will affect northern and western areas of the UK during Sunday, with other areas staying mostly dry and bright. Going into the following week this pattern looks to continue, with a broad northwest-southeast split to the weather. The northwest is more likely to see rainfall and strong winds at times, and the southeast is more likely to remain dry, fine, and settled. By the end of February and into early March most of the UK will probably turn dry as high pressure becomes dominant, although overnight fog will start to become more likely. Temperatures are likely to be mild or very mild across the UK through this period, possibly only becoming colder at the turn of the month.

Tuesday 2 Mar - Tuesday 16 Mar

In early March there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with dry and settled conditions most likely. Temperatures are predicted to be a little below average at the start of the period, slightly increasing the chances of cold spells occurring. During this time there looks to be an increased likelihood of overnight frosts and a risk of wintry hazards, such as snow and ice. Towards mid-March there are signs of a change to more unsettled and milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 21 Feb - Tuesday 2 Mar

Outbreaks of rain and strong winds will affect northern and western areas of the UK during Sunday, with other areas staying mostly dry and bright. Going into the following week this pattern looks to continue, with a broad northwest-southeast split to the weather. The northwest is more likely to see rainfall and strong winds at times, and the southeast is more likely to remain dry, fine, and settled. By the end of February and into early March most of the UK will probably turn dry as high pressure becomes dominant, although overnight fog will start to become more likely. Temperatures are likely to be mild or very mild across the UK through this period, possibly only becoming colder at the turn of the month.

Tuesday 2 Mar - Tuesday 16 Mar

In early March there is a signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with dry and settled conditions most likely. Temperatures are predicted to be a little below average at the start of the period, slightly increasing the chances of cold spells occurring. During this time there looks to be an increased likelihood of overnight frosts and a risk of wintry hazards, such as snow and ice. Towards mid-March there are signs of a change to more unsettled and milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Really? They must seen the 06z Operational run?

Monday 22 Feb - Wednesday 3 Mar

Following a brief drier interlude, aside from some showers in the far northwest, a resumption of mild and often unsettled weather arriving on a strong southwesterly wind is expected. Northwestern areas, especially higher ground, will see the wettest conditions, often accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales. Drier conditions are likely further east and southeast, although still some rain at times. By the end of February and into early March, conditions across much of the UK are most likely to turn more settled as high pressure becomes dominant, although confidence in this is low; indeed the northwest in particular could see a continuation of spells of wind and rain. Temperatures are likely to be mild or very mild across the UK, with a trend towards average in early March.

Wednesday 3 Mar - Wednesday 17 Mar

In early March there is a continued signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with dry and settled conditions most likely. Temperatures are predicted to be a little below average at the start of the period, slightly increasing the chances of cold spells occurring. During this time there looks to be an increased likelihood of overnight frosts and a risk of wintry hazards, such as snow and ice, although unlikely to be as disruptive as earlier in the year. Towards mid-March there are signs of a change to more unsettled and milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Likely often quite mild but cold lurks nearby

_________________________________

Wednesday 17 February – Sunday 21 February

A milder, wetter pattern persisting

After a bitterly cold start to February, the second half of the month is shaping up to be noticeably milder throughout the country. For the rest of this week, high pressure will stay well to the east and south. This will allow Atlantic weather systems to move into the UK, mostly from the southwest and drag milder sub-tropical air over us from the Azores.

Weather fronts will frequent the UK through the rest of this week and the weekend, often keeping things quite wet for many, but especially in the west and north. Between fronts there will be brief lulls in the wind and dry, clear spells. One of these looks like it will line up with the overnight hours on Thursday night, so central and eastern England may see a crisp Friday morning with frost on some hills. Overall though, temperatures will tend to be well above average and even getting into the mid-teens for southern areas by the end of the week.

By the weekend, we may begin to see more extensive high pressure building into the UK from the south or southeast, keeping weak fronts in western and northern areas and making for a mild, sunny, and dry weekend for most of England (and eastern Scotland).

This was our alternative scenario from the previous forecast, but over the past weekend it has become increasingly likely that high pressure will be too far away to keep the Atlantic weather fronts out. So this is one of those situations where the alternative scenario became more likely and at the same time, our forecast confidence as increased!

Monday 22 February – Sunday 28 February

Staying mild but also dry and sunny for many

Following on from the milder forecast this week, next week (and the final week of meteorological winter) looks to continue the mild trend, at least through the bulk of the working week. However, it will also trend drier for most of the country as high pressure tries to build in from the southeast. This high will push the weather fronts from the Atlantic to the north and west, so southern and eastern parts of the country will see some mild, sunny, and dry days. Western and northern coasts may continue to see the odd weak weather front keeping things cloudier and wetter, but overall it will be drier than normal for late-February.

These dry, sunny days in the South will make for some decidedly spring-like weather through the middle of the week as highs climb into the mid-teens. Heading into the weekend though, we should see high pressure slowly begin to shift west into the North Atlantic. This will be a gradual process, but northerly winds will begin to develop for Central Europe and bring some colder air in from Iceland. We expect that this will stay east of us throughout the weekend, but there is a chance it could arrive early, making for a colder end of February.

Confidence has increased for the forecast from last Friday and the performance of the computer models have shown some significant improvement recently. But we aren't quite done with winter just yet...

Monday 1 March – Sunday 14 March

Unsettled and mild weather to develop eventually

The first half of March is likely to still be heavily influenced by the presence of a large area of high pressure in northwest Europe which we expect to gradually head west into the Atlantic. As the high shifts west of Ireland in early-March, northerly winds will be able to bring some colder Icelandic air into the UK. This will be colder than normal, but not nearly as cold as the middle of February was! This is because the air in Iceland isn't as cold as the frigid air sitting in Russia.

As we head into mid-March, high pressure will likely begin to ease and head even further west, too far away to influence our weather. As it moves away, a trough of low pressure will develop over western Europe, keeping things unsettled and quite changeable. Temperatures and precipitation will likely be quite variable throughout the week as Atlantic weather fronts frequent the country. Warm fronts should be able to tap into sub-tropical Atlantic air from near the Azores, leading to some mild, spring-like days. Meanwhile, cold fronts will drag air in from Iceland, leading to crisp but sunny days too.

Confidence again is higher than it was on Friday, with a lot of our forecasting tools telling us the same thing (which is always an encouraging sign!). The main risk to the forecast is that it stays more high pressure-dominated into the middle of March, keeping things a bit cooler and drier than normal.

Further ahead

We will peer deeper into March and have a closer look at just how spring-like the first month of meteorological spring will be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 23 Feb - Thursday 4 Mar

Following a brief drier interlude, aside from some showers in the far northwest, a resumption of mild and often unsettled weather arriving on a strong southwesterly wind is expected. Western areas, especially higher ground, will see the wettest conditions, often accompanied by strong winds and coastal gales. Drier conditions are likely further east and southeast, although may see some rain at times. By the end of February and into early March, conditions across much of the UK are most likely to turn more settled as high pressure becomes dominant, although confidence in this is low; indeed the northwest in particular could see a continuation of spells of wind and rain. Temperatures are likely to be mild or very mild across the UK, with a trend towards average in early March.

Thursday 4 Mar - Thursday 18 Mar

In early March there is a continued signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with dry and settled conditions most likely. Temperatures are signalled to be a little below average at the start of the period, slightly increasing the chances of cold spells occurring. During this time there looks to be an increased likelihood of overnight frosts and a risk of wintry hazards, such as snow and ice, although unlikely to be as disruptive as earlier in the year. Towards mid-March there are signs of a change to more unsettled and milder conditions.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 24 Feb - Friday 5 Mar

During the last few days of February and the first week of March, many areas of the UK are likely to see more settled conditions. Dry conditions with clear or sunny periods are likely, especially in the south of the UK. Any unsettled weather with corresponding showers or rain are most likely to occur in the north and northwest of the UK. Strong winds may also affect northern and northwestern areas at times, but elsewhere winds will likely be light and, as a result, fog formation overnight may become more prevalent. Temperatures for this period will likely be average or slightly above average for the time of year, although some cold nights with frosts are still possible.

Friday 5 Mar - Friday 19 Mar

The UK will probably see a continuation of settled conditions during the beginning of March with predominantly dry weather likely across most areas. Later in the month a more mobile pattern may begin to develop with an increasing likelihood of Atlantic weather systems moving across the UK, bringing wetter conditions. The most unsettled conditions will likely be seen further north. Strong winds may also develop at times, particularly in the northwest, with winds likely lighter overall in the southeast. Temperatures will probably be near normal or slightly above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 24 Feb - Friday 5 Mar

During the last few days of February and the first week of March, many areas of the UK are likely to see more settled conditions. Dry conditions with clear or sunny periods are likely, especially in the south of the UK. Any unsettled weather with corresponding showers or rain are most likely to occur in the north and northwest of the UK. Strong winds may also affect northern and northwestern areas at times, but elsewhere winds will likely be light and, as a result, fog formation overnight may become more prevalent. Temperatures for this period will likely be average or slightly above average for the time of year, although some cold nights with frosts are still possible.

Friday 5 Mar - Friday 19 Mar

The UK will probably see a continuation of settled conditions during the beginning of March with predominantly dry weather likely across most areas. Later in the month a more mobile pattern may begin to develop with an increasing likelihood of Atlantic weather systems moving across the UK, bringing wetter conditions. The most unsettled conditions will likely be seen further north. Strong winds may also develop at times, particularly in the northwest, with winds likely lighter overall in the southeast. Temperatures will probably be near normal or slightly above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Compared to yesterday's update:

Thursday 4 Mar - Thursday 18 Mar

In early March there is a continued signal for higher than average pressure to sit close to or over the UK, with dry and settled conditions most likely. Temperatures are signalled to be a little below average at the start of the period, slightly increasing the chances of cold spells occurring. During this time there looks to be an increased likelihood of overnight frosts and a risk of wintry hazards, such as snow and ice, although unlikely to be as disruptive as earlier in the year. Towards mid-March there are signs of a change to more unsettled and milder conditions.

Anyone notice that whenever the GFS Op or Control go cold the Met Office put 'wintry hazards' and when they go mild like today it get's removed from their long range forecast?

https://twitter.com/WeatherProf/status/1362745410033487875

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Very mild end of February, changeable in March.

_________________________________

Saturday 20 February – Sunday 28 February

Very mild with heavy rain for some areas.

The end of the week will be very mild with plentiful rain for western and northern areas and rather strong winds. The heaviest rain on Saturday will be in Northern Ireland, Wales, and western England before spreading across Scotland. Eastern and southeastern England will be drier and sunnier. Sunday will be drier, but feel a bit fresher as the main fronts move away. Southern areas will turn cloudy and drizzly in places. While this is the last week of meteorological winter, it will feel more like spring instead. Temperatures will rise into double figures for most of the country, except northern Scotland. The warmest locations will be in east, central and southern England, where there will be the most sunshine.

High temperatures will approach the mid-teens Celsius, and on Wednesday potentially even the mid to upper teens in eastern England. As far as rain is concerned, there are some indications of southern and eastern England turning wet for a while during Monday. Meanwhile, other parts of the UK will have a drier interlude with some sunshine. However, the emphasis will shift back to northern and western regions, where bands of rain are expected to come from the west during Tuesday and Wednesday. It could be just chilly enough in northern Scotland for some sleet to mix in over the Highlands, but no significant snow. A few scattered showers could follow after midweek. But the weekend will be largely dry as high pressure builds near the UK. It will cool down a bit, though, with chilly nights and a risk of fog.

Monday 1 March – Sunday 7 March

Mostly dry and sunny but becoming cooler.

High pressure looks like being the dominant feature of the first week of March. It will likely be centred over Northwest Europe and near the UK, but there is some uncertainty over its exact positioning. This is rather significant to the forecast. Most likely, the dry and relatively calm weather will continue for a while. Temperature will fall to near normal or slightly below by the end of the week. Nights will become chilly and potentially foggy with crisp but fine, largely sunny days. The high pressure should tend to drift westwards towards Ireland and the East Atlantic. There is low confidence on how quickly this will occur.

But it's more likely towards the end of the week, when it might serve to draw in chillier air from around Iceland. Thus, we feel that risks of below-normal temperatures might start to become apparent by the end of the first week of the month. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure fails to begin to shift westwards, remaining overhead or even drifting eastwards into Germany. This will keep things feeling near or a bit above average for temperatures as colder flows stay east of us. There is a very small chance for some sharp cold to develop later in the week. But there is less and less support for this as we get closer to March.

Monday 8 March – Sunday 21 March

Becoming a little milder and more unsettled.

Heading through mid-March and beyond, high pressure is expected to recede farther into the Atlantic. Its influence on the UK's weather will recede. This would allow a trough of low pressure to develop over western and north-western Europe, leading to more unsettled and changeable conditions. Precipitation will likely be quite variable as Atlantic frontal systems potentially move through. Similarly, temperatures will likely be quite variable as well, but there will be plenty of mild spells as fronts arrive followed by colder snaps between fronts. Which temperature trend wins out is still uncertain at the moment, but we favour the milder days to slightly outnumber the colder ones. The later we head in March, the more dominant low pressure systems will become for the UK.

This means we should have a gradual increase in unsettled weather and day-to-day variability in precipitation and temperatures. There are not any strong signals at the moment for any prolonged sharp cold (such as another Beast from the East) or any prolonged warmth. The main risk to the forecast is that high pressure stays more dominant throughout. This means cool and dry conditions would be possible for most of the month. This is more likely if the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that directs weather fronts, is stronger than expected in the Atlantic. That could happen is major cold outbreaks persist in the United States, so we will keep an eye on the temperature forecasts there as well.

Further ahead

A closer look at developments through March, and whether we can look forward to conditions typical of early spring. In like a lion and out like a lamb, or otherwise?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook