The 06z Euro4, which was spot on with yesterday's forecast (it said the precipitation would mostly die out before the cold air arrived), shows up to 10cm of lying snow by midday

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The 06z Euro4, which was spot on with yesterday's forecast (it said the precipitation would mostly die out before the cold air arrived), shows up to 10cm of lying snow by midday

 

Cough.

 

BANK

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Just to cheer you up, have a look at the Alaro model. It only covers eastern counties from around The Wash south but it's perfect for our area.  It shows snow from around 5am until midday. It is at the upper end of the range of output but it's in line with the latest BBC radio forecast which talked of problems with snowfall for the East and South East into tomorrow afternoon.

Here's a snapshot for 9am:

 

Yep a couple of decent models for our area there . Hopefully we get lucky.

 

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Must admit things look a little more bullish for at least a spell of snow falling here than I thought would be the case - for whatever reason we rarely do well with fronts bumping in to even properly cold air down here and I generally pitch my expectations low accordingly.

It's almost tempting to set the alarm for 5ish to make sure I'm awake to see if we do get some temporary snow fall, which is a bit of a reflection about our winter so far

I still thing I'll only get a brief spell of wet snow at best and a bit of sleet is more likely before it rains but it'd be nice to see if nothing else!

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In a similar vein to the previous comment, I will be setting up my phone camera with time lapse capture just to see if any transient snowfall does occur here in the Cotswolds.

Wonder if it'll turn out to be a surprise 5th Feb 2012 event for my neck of the woods. That was coming in from the west as an occluded front embedded in a deepening trough-feature and I was expecting heavy rain under a strong southerly wind (during the night, of course) but instead I was seeing near blizzards and drifting snow all coming in from the Channel by nightfall. I hadn't taken into account low dewpoints over France and even the uppers weren't that conductive for snow production but all that happened overnight and quite late in that winter season.

But given the past few winters, I may have to keep expectations low and think it'll just be another quick snow to rain event leading to yet another soggy wet and windy afternoon. 

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Arpege even shows snow as far south as me. WRF shows virtually nothing and AROME shows a brief spell of ice pellets.

I notice many of the models show a first band of ppn which falls mostly as snow, but doesn't extend as far south as the second band, being restricted mostly to north of London, hence the bigger totals there.

Euro 4 has snow right down to the south coast and beyond, but only very briefly.

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The Met Office have a yellow warning for snow tomorrow for much of SE England and the east Midlands, with amber for much of East Anglia:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=b60e3f61-5941-45fb-86db-c3e9b065cc41&date=2021-01-16

The accompanying spiel includes: "East Anglia and parts of Kent and Sussex look most at risk of seeing snow for longest. 1-3 cm of snow may fall fairly widely over these areas with 5-10 cm possible in places, mostly over parts of East Anglia and any higher ground."

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Front almost into west of scotland (earlier than id anticipated)... will report in due course if rain or snow. Temp 1.9dc

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An amber alert for snow has been forecast for here. At last. What on earth could go wrong?!

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An amber alert for snow has been forecast for here. At last. What on earth could go wrong?!

Not worth it as it will turn to rain anyway so we need easterly to deliver direct snowfall everywhere.

a brisk polar maritime NW would do for me...

The Amber will be gone quicker than you can say ‘wintery hazards’

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Arpege even shows snow as far south as me. WRF shows virtually nothing and AROME shows a brief spell of ice pellets.

I notice many of the models show a first band of ppn which falls mostly as snow, but doesn't extend as far south as the second band, being restricted mostly to north of London, hence the bigger totals there.

Euro 4 has snow right down to the south coast and beyond, but only very briefly.

 

I'm hoping Euro4 is spot on, as it gives us about 3 hours of snow from around midnight (but I think it's being optimistic, and it turns to rain anyway afterwards)

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The problem with tomorrow’s snow is, whether you get 5,10 or 15cm, the event is going to be transient with most of any laying snow melting before late evening in lowland England.

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If we are lucky we will get a cm or two but not really interested, because by morning we will have less snow than we do now and everything will be a slushy mess.
Those in East Anglia might get several hours enjoyment tomorow though.

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I can confirm (albeit early days) the precipitation from the incoming front so far is......
Rain

(the actual rate is light and higher radar intensities to follow)

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Not expecting anything here as we are either too far north or south or east or west and have no snow on the ground at all yet incredible really and frustrating too

Currently 0.4*c and dp -0.9*c

Front seems to have some fingers dangling ahead of it.... will that turn to snow i wonder?

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If we are lucky we will get a cm or two but not really interested, because by morning we will have less snow than we do now and everything will be a slushy mess.
Those in East Anglia might get several hours enjoyment tomorow though.

 

If it's got to go then best it goes quickly. Couldn't get off the estate today which meant no shopping, takeaway etc.

Still frozen solid out there. Strange to think that it will be raining and 2C in a few short hours.

 

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The latest UKV looks a bust to me.

https://twitter.com/met4castuk/status/1350188924468080641?s=21 

Their amber warning looking precarious.

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