DON'T Ban me for this but just thought it was fun to look at - if only! (Low pressure to our south and HP to our north and east = 

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DON'T Ban me for this but just thought it was fun to look at - if only! (Low pressure to our south and HP to our north and east = 

Again - don't ban me but two weeks on I am still seeing a re-occurring pattern within the CFS long range for easterlies with northern blocking and southerly tracking lows over December esp towards Christmas. Maybe they could be on to something? I know many will cry it's a long way out but this pattern for a blocked and cold December is persistent within the long range CFS runs!? 

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The model shows the strength of zonal winds @ 10hpa to remain weaker than average:

 

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Again - don't ban me but two weeks on I am still seeing a re-occurring pattern within the CFS long range for easterlies with northern blocking and southerly tracking lows over December esp towards Christmas. Maybe they could be on to something? I know many will cry it's a long way out but this pattern for a blocked and cold December is persistent within the long range CFS runs!? 

Yet another one  - continuing trend this: - whilst we can't take this seriously it is nice to look at...!?

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My dream scenario is cold really setting in a week before Christmas and last through January. Surely we are due something decent. It’s so tiring searching for scraps and ending up with a few flakes on the back end of a cold front,

 

We actually got very close to that in Dec 09/Jan 10

 

MBY got its first settling snow the Sunday before Xmas, which was added to in the subsequent days, giving around 7-8cm, which froze and lay on the ground until the 27th (the thaw actually set in on Boxing Day evening). After a week or so of milder weather, it turned cold again and heavy snow fell on the first Tuesday back (5th), giving 15-20cm widely over much of the country. From NW England northwards, the cold kept going until late Jan - we had snow lying until nearly the end of the month, and piled-up snow on car parks, etc were still slowly melting into Feb. 

To get two amazing winter spells in consecutive winters was special.

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Yet another one  - continuing trend this: - whilst we can't take this seriously it is nice to look at...!?

It is as you say way too soon. The clue is in the time stamp - +2640hrs.

That’s about +2520hrs more than is typically reliable. These ultra long term models are pretty much pig fodder and that’s being kind. There are plenty of other ‘more’ reliable trend tools that are worth a look as we go towards October.

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My dream scenario is cold really setting in a week before Christmas and last through January. Surely we are due something decent. It’s so tiring searching for scraps and ending up with a few flakes on the back end of a cold front,

I'm with you HW , just looking at Gavs video , lack of Hurricanes currently and a failing easterly QBO aren't filling me with joy or hope at the moment ….BUT very very early days .

 

But in saying the above zonal winds are forecast to be weak , which can favour a sustained period of blocking 

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Again - don't ban me but two weeks on I am still seeing a re-occurring pattern within the CFS long range for easterlies with northern blocking and southerly tracking lows over December esp towards Christmas. Maybe they could be on to something? I know many will cry it's a long way out but this pattern for a blocked and cold December is persistent within the long range CFS runs!? 

Looking at the CFS long range on meteorciel.fr

A reoccurring theme for HP to go to our north and LP to our south - of course this is again just for fun!

 

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Zonal winds @ 10hpa look set to stay weaker than average:

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Looking at the CFS long range on meteorciel.fr

A reoccurring theme for HP to go to our north and LP to our south - of course this is again just for fun!

 

Sadly Tally I have seen those so many times before and we get lovely SWlies 

Lets re-visit at 120hrs eh?

But feel free to prove me wrong each week 

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Zonal winds @ 10hpa look set to stay weaker than average:

That certainly encourages blocking but knowing the UK the block will sit slap bang on us lol 

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Sadly Tally I have seen those so many times before and we get lovely SWlies 

Lets re-visit at 120hrs eh?

But feel free to prove me wrong each week 

 

Of course it's JFF. - Seems consistent within the longer range CFS for an easterly around Christmas or sometime in December but fun to look at - I won't take notice of this until November arrives!

What seems like a developing La Nina looks interesting, CFS models show moderate La Nina now!? - It has been a while since we last had a moderate La Nina for the winter - can't remember when the last Moderate La Nina was!?

Nice to hear from you!! Let's hope we see something different this season instead of the PV of doom and persistent record breaking zonal flow for months on end. 

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Of course it's JFF. - Seems consistent within the longer range CFS for an easterly around Christmas or sometime in December but fun to look at - I won't take notice of this until November arrives!

What seems like a developing La Nina looks interesting, CFS models show moderate La Nina now!? - It has been a while since we last had a moderate La Nina for the winter - can't remember when the last Moderate La Nina was!?

Nice to hear from you!! Let's hope we see something different this season instead of the PV of doom and persistent record breaking zonal flow for months on end. 

was it 2015....lots of hoohar in the press coldest winter for 100 years....rest is history

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Let me know if I've missed any - but anyone could have initiated this

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I see Tally likes to set the bar of expectation at suitably high levels.

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These charts based on data from ECMWF seem to suggest average temperatures in Dec & Jan, mild in Feb. This could mean some cold snaps in Dec/Jan, balanced by periods of milder weather. Early days at present.
https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/seasonal-forecast/ 
It is likely that we will have a La Nina this winter. La Nina winters sometimes have cold snaps early on, followed by calm anticyclonic February - this is not a 'rule' just a tendency.
The Indian Ocean Dipole [IOD] which was in a strongly positive state at the beginning of last winter is forecast to be either negative or neutral this coming winter.
The QBO is doing strange things at the moment and therefore can't be used as an indicator.

One thing i will say is that the tree's have turned much earlier this year, and i'm not just talking of horse chestnut. If i didn't know better i would have thought it was late September rather then early. Can't blame it on the weather either as the summer has been good, and autumn so far has been very warm. 

The last time i recall the tree's turning so early (2010) we had a cold winter 

 

I'm with you HW , just looking at Gavs video , lack of Hurricanes currently and a failing easterly QBO aren't filling me with joy or hope at the moment ….BUT very very early days .

 

But in saying the above zonal winds are forecast to be weak , which can favour a sustained period of blocking 

Yes! What's interesting is that we have seen above average tropical activity in the Atlantic but very few hurricanes - which is unusual given how warm the SST's are in the Atlantic as a whole in general.  - Surely this is a recipe for development!?

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One thing i will say is that the tree's have turned much earlier this year,

A few have here, but that's due to drought stress - what rain we've had over the past few months has been either so light as to not do anything, or heavy enough to sluice straight across the land and into the drains / steams.

 

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One thing i will say is that the tree's have turned much earlier this year, and i'm not just talking of horse chestnut. If i didn't know better i would have thought it was late September rather then early. Can't blame it on the weather either as the summer has been good, and autumn so far has been very warm. 

The last time i recall the tree's turning so early (2010) we had a cold winter 

I think autumn has generally started earlier and the dry conditions may well be to blame, not just the leaves but the fruit. Our blackberries are already finished, and the sloes have been out in force for weeks.

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