Persistent signal for an easterly at some point throughout December beit at or before Xmas! JFF.

This is only in a week's time (and wouldn't deliver anything snowy to anywhere but the highest tops), but it would be a dream winter chart.

This is only in a week's time (and wouldn't deliver anything snowy to anywhere but the highest tops), but it would be a dream winter chart.

 

 

 

Except above average heights to the west of Portugal. But yes. Blocking over Greenland is what we what and cold northerly low pressure systems sinking southwards brining in northerly winds! - let's hope we do see this in winter time.

The above model chart reminds me of a pattern back on Sat 22nd September 2018 when a north westerly plunge swept through the UK and many parts of the UK even the south experience daytime maxes of 9.0c or +10c all day in the heavy cold rain. - Although this years September's cold snap looks like a better set up with more HLB. 

Interesting Long range CFS pattern developing for November and December from a northern Blocking perspective. - Still early days of course but some tentative signs!? 

Tally - the pattern will end up being the reverse of this.  Ive lost count of the number of years these forecasts turn out to be utter shite.

Tally - the pattern will end up being the reverse of this.  Ive lost count of the number of years these forecasts turn out to be utter shite.

The Met Office admitted that they got their version by running their daily model out for up to 5 months into the future to get the DJF average. I realise they might be adding some overall considerations into this but we all know the models dissolve into chaos after about 5 days

Tally - the pattern will end up being the reverse of this.  Ive lost count of the number of years these forecasts turn out to be utter shite.

I don't take it as gospel - I am just reading what models show...!? I know things will change but these are encouraging signs also because we have a negative IOD and developing La Nina which could enhance chances of a SSW like in winter of 2017/18. 

Also looking and strength of zonal winds at 60'N at 10hpa - they look to remain weaker than average for the next 3 months with a few going for reversal:

AO/NAO is set to take a dive next week in combination with this colder Autumnal shot.

http://178.62.112.79/prod/gfs/eps/strat/u10serie.png

Weak zonal winds is always a help when wanting something wintry but of course other factors need to play ball also 

I can't remember the last time we had a front loaded winter can you!?

I'm surprised you don't remember 2010-11?

Severe cold late November December, an average January and a very mild February.

 

I'm surprised you don't remember 2010-11?

Severe cold late November December, an average January and a very mild February.

Sure that was 10 years ago now but since 2010/11 we haven't had a front loaded winter have we really?

Many of our 2000's were front loaded winters or contained sustained northerly/cold spells December 2001, December 2002, December 2003, (December 2004 - the last proper white Xmas) End of November December 2005, Nov/December 2008, Nov/Dec 2009 and Jan 2010 and of course November/December 2010. But my point is that we have not had a front loaded winter or proper cold wintry December spell since December to remember of 2010!?

I remember 2nd week of December 2017 we had a northerly but only lasting 2-3 days. - But even then the December turned out average or milder with a milder spell over Christmas week.

 

Many of our 2000's were front loaded winters or contained sustained northerly/cold spells December 2001, December 2002, December 2003, (December 2004 - the last proper white Xmas) End of November December 2005, Nov/December 2008, Nov/Dec 2009 and Jan 2010 and of course November/December 2010. But my point is that we have not had a front loaded winter or proper cold wintry December spell since December to remember of 2010!?

I remember 2nd week of December 2017 we had a northerly but only lasting 2-3 days. - But even then the December turned out average or milder with a milder spell over Christmas week.

I take issue with some of those on that list.

2002-03 wasn't a front loaded winter, December 2002 was actually mild following the very mild November. There was a poor man's easterly mid month but it was snowless for many parts that December.

2003-04, I would call that a mild winter with each month contain short wintry episodes, they were no sustained wintry spells. 

2004-05 had a white Christmas but it was fortunate the short blast occurred at Christmas, in actuality it was a mild December. The only sustained wintry spell came at the back end at that winter.

Recent Decembers have been a throwback to the Decembers of 1970s and 1980s.

 

I take issue with some of those on that list.

2002-03 wasn't a front loaded winter, December 2002 was actually mild following the very mild November. There was a poor man's easterly mid month but it was snowless for many parts that December.

2003-04, I would call that a mild winter with each month contain short wintry episodes, they were no sustained wintry spells. 

2004-05 had a white Christmas but it was fortunate the short blast occurred at Christmas, in actuality it was a mild December. The only sustained wintry spell came at the back end at that winter.

Recent Decembers have been a throwback to the Decembers of 1970s and 1980s.

I am not necessary saying front loaded winter but we have had snowy/cold or wintry spells/snaps in those Decembers compared to recent December's over past 10 years.

25th December 2004: - The chart say's it all.

I remember there being a smattering of snow on 22nd December 2003: - Proof here as we had a northerly plunge.

December 2002 - I remember wet snow falling and settling giving 1" around 9th and 10th. It didn't last long but it was snowy and cold for a few days daytime maxes of +0.5c -we had an easterly, I remember as I was at college then.

I remember the potent northerly 22nd December 2001 - I was at college then heavy wet snow fell over night not much settled but left a smattering this was following and easterly:

My point is we never seem to get proper snowy type cold weather in December for the exception of 2010 of course.

Just as well the NYE celebrations get cancelled!?

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2020091818/run1/cfs-0-2496.png?00

Christmas - the CFS are still going for blocked conditions and northerly flows in December.

All a bit of fun!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2154&mode=0&carte=0&run=1

Just as well the NYE celebrations get cancelled!?

 

https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2020091818/run1/cfs-0-2496.png?00

Christmas - the CFS are still going for blocked conditions and northerly flows in December.

All a bit of fun!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2154&mode=0&carte=0&run=1

 

A bit of fun for sure

But IMO they exemplify the difference between accuracy and precision

 

A bit of fun for sure

But IMO they exemplify the difference between accuracy and precision

 

CFS is great.......for taking the mick out of the initials 

Computer Fantasy Scenarios

Completely Fabricated Sh!te

Can't Forecast Snow

Constant False Signals

 

CFS is great.......for taking the mick out of the initials 

Computer Fantasy Scenarios

Completely Fabricated Sh!te

Can't Forecast Snow

Constant False Signals

 

For balance Kev - remember ECM ? took us up the garden path then firmly shut the gate on us , I think any one of the models that goes ridiculously far out can be looked at just for a giggle.

The UK is so hard for getting  continuity in forecasts .

Interesting Long range CFS pattern developing for November and December from a northern Blocking perspective. - Still early days of course but some tentative signs!? 

 

Looking interesting!

Be funny if CFS actually came good ……………….5,000-1 ?

 

 

I am not necessary saying front loaded winter but we have had snowy/cold or wintry spells/snaps in those Decembers compared to recent December's over past 10 years.

 

25th December 2004: - The chart say's it all.

 

I remember there being a smattering of snow on 22nd December 2003: - Proof here as we had a northerly plunge.

December 2002 - I remember wet snow falling and settling giving 1" around 9th and 10th. It didn't last long but it was snowy and cold for a few days daytime maxes of +0.5c -we had an easterly, I remember as I was at college then.

 

I remember the potent northerly 22nd December 2001 - I was at college then heavy wet snow fell over night not much settled but left a smattering this was following and easterly:

 

My point is we never seem to get proper snowy type cold weather in December for the exception of 2010 of course.

December 81 was very cold and snowy. I can remember the soil freezing as we put in fence posts. Dug it out , twenty minutes later a frozen crust on the damp soil . Gale force N. Easterly froze water troughs in minutes.