I was thinking this too Gooner.
My gut feeling is that this could be the year we finally get a below average CET winter again perhaps with a very cold spell thrown in somewhere.
No science behind it but just a general sense that harsh winters often coincide with recessions and turmoil in the UK (1978-79, mid 1980s, 1990-91, 2008-11 period all being examples).
IIRC 2009 -10 was meant to be an apocalyptic winter of swine flu which never really materialised (cases went down and down) so there's another straw to clutch.
Sadly I think we're too far gone for a repeat with Covid...
What makes you think that?
But yes a cold winter will come about eventually!? Surely!? One is well over due if not a colder than average winter month is due - surely?
Even the winter of 2017/18 was not really colder than average it was -0.2 the CET and the cold really came (as we all remember) towards the end of February.
Otherwise the winter as a whole would have been above average. Our last colder than average winter was 2008/09 2009/2010 For the exception of December 2010 the last proper colder than average winter was 2012/13. Since then we have had nothing but zonal mild westerly, damp dross!
What is conflicting is that we could be having a strong La Nina now according to the CFS model for ENSO region and we may not be going into an Easterly QBO - so this decreases our chances of a cold winter but then again the IOD is in it's negative phase, Arctic sea ice has melted to near record minimum and we are coming out of solar minimum - So this could increase our chances of a more blocked and colder winter but then we have the above caveats!? The majority of long range models show milder than average conditions throughout many parts of the northern Hemisphere this winter and I do wonder if this is a response to the strong La Nina in ENSO region? What do you think?
In July the CFS forecast the La Nina was forecast to remain weak, in August some ENS members took it down to borderline moderate LA Nina and most recently the models are showing a strong La Nina - so this goes against a cold winter!? - Same for strong El Nino. Like in 2015/16. But maybe the strength of this La Nina- beit strong if this continues could be a good thing as it will cool down the SST's in the NE Pacific which is what we all need. The Pacific ocean is warm the the SST's cooling rapidly at the ENSO region will eventually cool down other parts of the pacific like a thermostat.
We all know that recent winters we have seen huge ridge/block off south coast of Alaska and western coast of Canada develop over this warm area of SST's and this has brought brutally cold weather into Canada and N. America - then the low pressure systems have swept eastwards across the USA and then blasted up the jet to give us persistent zonal weather/cyclogenisis or Atlantic onslaught as Gavin P would usually describe it as.
Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com