JFF Nice to see for Mid November 

Moving towards the end of November

JFF Nice to see for Mid November 

Moving towards the end of November

Yes of course JFF but starting to see a pattern emerging with this which looks similar to this set up:

ECM suggesting a front loaded La Nina winter with a negative NAO favoured in November and December.

ECM suggesting a front loaded La Nina winter with a negative NAO favoured in November and December.

More and more models kinda aligning to a blocked and interesting start to the winter season.

Every year we get such signals which fizzle to atlantic storms pretty quickly, but given the poor run of winters recently, this may be a balancing out year where cold actually arrives...

ECM suggesting a front loaded La Nina winter with a negative NAO favoured in November and December.

Front loaded... rear ended...

Looks like a fairly strong La Nina to me. I thought that the experts believe Europe gets severe weather during neutral Enso to weak La Nina events.

ECM suggesting a front loaded La Nina winter with a negative NAO favoured in November and December.

Brian? - could you send me link to ECM Nov/Dec seasonal model?

thanks 

I posted this on the Model Output thread yesterday but it's also worth posting here. An early look at the likely effects of La Nina across Europe and North America this winter ...

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-season-2020-2021-lanina-early-look-fa/

I posted this on the Model Output thread yesterday but it's also worth posting here. An early look at the likely effects of La Nina across Europe and North America this winter ...

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-forecast-season-2020-2021-lanina-early-look-fa/

 

Interesting:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/polar-vortex-formation-winter-2020-2021-fa/

"Without a stratospheric warming event, a La Nina winter can generally be milder in Europe and the United States. The same goes for the west QBO, individually. But combined, they have already produced quite cold winters in the past. This is why the state of the stratospheric polar vortex is important, as well as the phase of the QBO.

Current signals show the potential for a stratospheric warming event in mid-winter, based on current parameters. A lot depends on the positioning of the massive high and low-pressure systems in the North Pacific."

All CFS/ENS show weakened zonal winds throughout rest of October, whole of November even into December:

That's good to see Tally , though only a forecast .

Certainly helps our chances 

JFF

Think I'd take these 

And now December looks like this , shows it really is a laugh

And January is just a dream

Encouraging signs to see several easterly outbreaks on CFS long range given last winter we saw ZERO! - of course this is all JFF:

On model one run all JFF of course!

 The ECM going free has resulted in a treaure trove of charts - all their ensemble data, for example, now yours for the taking.

Talking of which, here's the 10hPa zonal speed forecast:

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202010080000

Encouraging, I think, to see the mean is well below the LTA and there's a significant amount of spaghetti below the 10th percentile (and virtually none above the 90th).

 The ECM going free has resulted in a treaure trove of charts - all their ensemble data, for example, now yours for the taking.

Talking of which, here's the 10hPa zonal speed forecast:

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-zonal-mean-zonal-wind?area=nh&base_time=202010080000

Encouraging, I think, to see the mean is well below the LTA and there's a significant amount of spaghetti below the 10th percentile (and virtually none above the 90th).

The unlocking of a raft of ECM data is welcome, if only to see how it can exacerbate the confusion and befuddlement AKA the annual circus AKA Winter on TWO MO.

If that’s too many abbreviations for you, you won’t survive the next four months 😂😷

18z CFSv2 from yesterday gives us a pre Xmas tease 

Keeps it going on Xmas day

Would be a white one for some

Followed soon after by an Easterly

Oh Dear, O dear, Oh Dear!! Big flip from northern Blocking to mid latitude blocking over central and south western Europe to give us milder winds for November and December!! I do wonder if this sudden flip is a result of the CFS long range model going for a strong super La Nina for this winter 20/21 with some temperatures in the ENSO region to go down to -2.5c below average with some ENS!? What do you think?

Let the bi-polar begin.

@ Tally - I wouldn't worry too much , just ................yet , these charts changed every single run doing a complete U turn

JFF Be nice to see this if only for a day or so 

Before you know who comes knocking 

Before the East has another go on Xmas Day