Yes! What's interesting is that we have seen above average tropical activity in the Atlantic but very few hurricanes - which is unusual given how warm the SST's are in the Atlantic as a whole in general.  - Surely this is a recipe for development!?

So far from NOAA - Looks like things will really begin to live up, but as per above given how warm the SST's are in the Atlantic as a whole esp the N. Atlantic I am surprised none of these tropical depressions or disturbances or tropical storms are forecast to become a hurricane, they seem to disintegrate and fragment!? - Why is this? Due to the HP positioning? Wind sheer? 

In September 2017 there was at least three hurricanes in the Atlantic the same week . After Harvey there was Irma in September 2017 which hit Florida as a Major Cat 3/4 Hurricane, then there was Jose and then Katia, then there was Lee followed by Maria a Cat 5 - I remember that one, then Nate formed and then Ophelia - which we all remember! Most if not all were major Hurricanes. This year we haven't had a major hurricane in Atlantic - int he Gulf yes but not in Atlantic. That really active tropical season with major hurricanes in the Atlantic gave us southerly tracking lows in January and eventually extensive northern blocking in February as we can all remember it lead to the beast from the east. - with help by the SSW but I think there is a connection between Hurricanes and High latitude blocking throughout the winter months.

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So far from NOAA - Looks like things will really begin to live up, but as per above given how warm the SST's are in the Atlantic as a whole esp the N. Atlantic I am surprised none of these tropical depressions or disturbances or tropical storms are forecast to become a hurricane, they seem to disintegrate and fragment!? - Why is this? Due to the HP positioning? Wind sheer? 

In September 2017 there was at least three hurricanes in the Atlantic the same week . After Harvey there was Irma in September 2017 which hit Florida as a Major Cat 3/4 Hurricane, then there was Jose and then Katia, then there was Lee followed by Maria a Cat 5 - I remember that one, then Nate formed and then Ophelia - which we all remember! Most if not all were major Hurricanes. This year we haven't had a major hurricane in Atlantic - int he Gulf yes but not in Atlantic. That really active tropical season with major hurricanes in the Atlantic gave us southerly tracking lows in January and eventually extensive northern blocking in February as we can all remember it lead to the beast from the east. - with help by the SSW but I think there is a connection between Hurricanes and High latitude blocking throughout the winter months.

Of course there were other factors that lead to a slightly cooler than average winter such as the strong easterly QBO, and the weak La Nina. But again the winter as a whole 2017/18 was only -0.2 below average as most of the colder weather wasn't until the very end of it.

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I think autumn has generally started earlier and the dry conditions may well be to blame, not just the leaves but the fruit. Our blackberries are already finished, and the sloes have been out in force for weeks.

I see retron also mentioned it but hasn't been that dry here.. certainly nothing unusual. July was dry yes but a dry 3 or 4 week spell in summer here is far from unusual, and August saw plenty of rain but also lots of heat & sun. 

Walking in the forest just to the north of here in the last week of August there were two patches of beech trees that had shed a lot green leaves. This is very odd but i thought the intense heat of a couple weeks earlier or the storms a week or so before might have played a part. 

What i'm seeing now though are widespread leaf colour change even here within the city. The grass is nice green.

Sloe to here are looking plump and some of the hedges have begun to die back. No issues with blackberries, but Hazelnuts have been and gone.

Is this the record for the earliest snow ramp? 

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Is this the record for the earliest snow ramp? 

Very likely.

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UK Met Office GLOSEA5  seasonal long range outlook model has been updated:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Long range Probability maps:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

As I thought as the Met office never would go for colder or blocked weather. 

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Looking at Arctic sea ice extent - looks like we are very very near the record 2012 minimum this year: - Perhaps the second biggest melt season for Arctic sea-ice recorded, it could still reach the death spiral of 2012, there is still another week to go - there is some northern blocking over Scandinavia next week which could drag up even warmer air into the northern latitudes which may increase the Arctic sea ice melt season further!?

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

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UK Met Office GLOSEA5  seasonal long range outlook model has been updated:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Long range Probability maps:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

As I thought as the Met office never would go for colder or blocked weather. 

I can't remember the last time the MetO went for broke and forecast a colder than average winter for Europe !

I think this is just a reflex risk-averse reaction from them

I couldn't find which anomaly set they were using for these (even tried looking at their own links inside the forecasts) so I assume 1961-90 in which case almost every winter these days is going to be warmer than average statistically anyway

 

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I can't remember the last time the MetO went for broke and forecast a colder than average winter for Europe !

I think this is just a reflex risk-averse reaction from them

I couldn't find which anomaly set they were using for these (even tried looking at their own links inside the forecasts) so I assume 1961-90 in which case almost every winter these days is going to be warmer than average statistically anyway

 

Makes sense if they are using the data from the 1961 to 1990 average then yes winters will always be forecast to be milder then. 

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This really is JFF 

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This really is JFF 

 

Looks familiar to the Beast from the east below - but this would be colder if this was to materialize as days would be shorter too as it's December!

 

Take a look at this run for January - shows the whole of the month being an easterly - blocked Month!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2694&mode=0&carte=0&run=3

Of course it's just for fun the the long range MODEL runs could be picking up on something as I recall many previous years you would see weeks and months of zonality! Whilst we can't take any of this for gospel it's rare for long range CFS models to go for an easterly and blocked patterns! Would you agree!?

 

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Gavin P's latest updates on Gavsweathervids have got me quite interested. He's been looking at UK temperature and precipitation data for summer 2020 and August 2020. He's homed in on analogous years which fit the criteria for both summer in general and August in particular. The results for the following winters throw up quite a number of memorable ones from a very limited number. They range from an epic like 1947 to under-rated ones like 1990/1. 

Well worth a read:

https://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter-2020-21-weather-forecast.php

I'm getting interested now that we're moving out of solar minimum. I get the impression that if there really is a link between solar cycles and cold winters, it tends to favour winters a year or two after the new one gets going, rather than ones right in the depths of solar minimum (!978-9 would be a good example, along with 1947 itself).

So, my ultra-long range prediction would be for this winter to be one featuring a good snowy spell, along the lines of 1977-78, with next year, 2021-22, being a 1978-79-style humdinger!

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And Solar Cycle 25 now announced!
https://www.weather.gov/news/201509-solar-cycle?s=03 

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Good news then. Winter 2009-10 and December 2010 occurred just as Solar Cycle 24 got going. We're at exactly the same stage for Cycle 25, so we might be lucky!

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

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The proper cold doesn't arrive till February, sorry. It does stick around for most of the month though.

 

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The proper cold doesn't arrive till February, sorry. It does stick around for most of the month though.

 

Back loaded winter would match the analogues Gav was showing - not that I'm a believer in pattern matching …..nevertheless something cold and white would be good this winter .

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I can't remember the last time we had a front loaded winter can you!?

We had a cold snap end of November 2017 and I recall London seeing the first snowflakes on 30th November!? - See below video:



However, I wouldn't have classed this as a front loaded winter - would you!? - We are well overdue a front loaded winter.

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Back loaded winter would match the analogues Gav was showing - not that I'm a believer in pattern matching …..nevertheless something cold and white would be good this winter .

We have this potential first:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1614&mode=0&carte=0&run=3

This is all JFF of course!  

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As is (my) tradition, first geese flying overhead, so time to check in on TWO for winter!  Timing wise, slightly earlier this season, but a combination of good weather and working from home means I am outside more often!

This really is JFF 

Take a look at this run JFF:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2334&mode=0&carte=0&run=4

 

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