GEM and ECM go all scorchio this morning. A mid September heatwave would be nice.

 

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Be nice.....always the excitement of something special round the corner in autumn coupled with fear of the Atlantic firing up with endless flat zonality....

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Stunning ECM 12z for warm weather fans. High 20s make a comeback.

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Thankfully the regular August monsoon season appears to be over and we can look forward to some typical quiet September weather - at least for the first half.

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Be nice.....always the excitement of something special round the corner in autumn coupled with fear of the Atlantic firing up with endless flat zonality....

Oh your so right. You get lulled into that false sense of security when you have a autumn cold high and hope it develops into something exciting. We know what happens then....

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We know what happens then....

 

Even when it comes off, you end up distracted because you're bricking it it'll fizzle in a disappointingly short time and you'll just get a week.

I think the vast majority of us would love a repeat of the Dec 2010 spell but on steroids. A 'different Xmas' with people unable to get their shopping in would be interesting.

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Even when it comes off, you end up distracted because you're bricking it it'll fizzle in a disappointingly short time and you'll just get a week.

I think the vast majority of us would love a repeat of the Dec 2010 spell but on steroids. A 'different Xmas' with people unable to get their shopping in would be interesting.

My dream scenario is cold really setting in a week before Christmas and last through January. Surely we are due something decent. It’s so tiring searching for scraps and ending up with a few flakes on the back end of a cold front,

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This has to be early today so ECM is yesterday's 12z ...

Jetstream running quite strongly across N half of UK until Mon 14th when it buckles and comes in from the SW for a day or so before splitting with one branch to the N and one to the S of the UK until Sat 19th. N branch wins out and runs S-wards across the UK Mon 21st before a completely fragmented situation on Wed 23rd.

GFS shows W-lies for this week with Hp originally strong to S declining. On Mon 14th, an Atlantic trough comes S to W of Ireland and introduces S-lies with HP centre building over UK but not lasting with slack pressure for the rest of that week and shallow LPs all over the place. Mon 21st, ridge of HP slowly moving in from W but never really covering UK so eastern areas could stay cool. The ex-hurricane (maybe not so ex) makes its appearance Sun 20th S of Newfoundland but unlike yesterday's forecast moves N. not E, and is 980mb on S tip of Greenland Wed 23rd

GEFS has better agreement for temps near seasonal norm to Sun 13th, above at first and below later but accentuated in the N,  then a rather warm spell slowly declining to norm by end of that week by which time variability has set in. Some rain around from Thu 17th.

ECM is less keen on the 'slack pressure' for week of 14th than GFS and had a well-defined LP to the SW at that time as a controlling influence though pressure remains fairly high over the UK.

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too soon?

sprinkles over Siberia 

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Eurohigh at the end of the tunnel 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html 

 

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Interesting end of the September blowtorch...nice to see the seeds of an Eastern European cool down

 

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Decent chance of some late season "heat" in the day 6 to 9 slot.

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Amazing charts for September....what a turnaround from 10 days ago....be interesting statistics for this month if this keeps up.....

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Two tropical systems causing chaos in the models for next week. One scenario is an ex-tropical storm sits over the Azores maintaining a southerly flow over the UK. A mid-Sept. heatwave would result.
Perhaps the Express was right this time? 😂🤢

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If we do get the suggested September heatwave (and ECM 0z is the best yet) then this summer will have had a remarkably regular repeating pattern: weeks of westerly weather with stable temperatures oscillating around the average, punctuated by a few days of intense plume heatwave with high pressure to the East.

Zonal pattern early-mid June, most of July, mid-late August; heatwave late June, late July, second week of Aug, second-third week of Sept.

Really bimodal summer. Very little in between. Very different to our ridiculously monomodal winter (wet and windy) and spring (dry and sunny).

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If we do get the suggested September heatwave (and ECM 0z is the best yet) then this summer will have had a remarkably regular repeating pattern: weeks of westerly weather with stable temperatures oscillating around the average, punctuated by a few days of intense plume heatwave with high pressure to the East.

Zonal pattern early-mid June, most of July, mid-late August; heatwave late June, late July, second week of Aug, second-third week of Sept.

Really bimodal summer. Very little in between. Very different to our ridiculously monomodal winter (wet and windy) and spring (dry and sunny).

It reflects our polarised political and cultural environment. Somebody up there is having a good laugh I fear. 

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Amazing charts for September....what a turnaround from 10 days ago....be interesting statistics for this month if this keeps up.....

Sounds about right. The models started changing as soon as I put my September CET prediction in .... 

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 September has often been a dry and warm month - there have been lots of years wen I can remember school cricket being rained off all summer only for pitches to be baked too hard for playing rugby in September.

Two-week summary picks up the warmth and dryness for week 1 (some rain in the NW)and the fine weather hangs on at least in the S for week 2 but some cold air sneaks in over Norway whose mountains are showing the first 'blue' (day-night below 0C) in week 2. 

 

GFS - W-ly regime for this week turning SW and then S as trough establishes itself W of Ireland Sun 13th brnging up waem and dry conditions. The trough resolves itself into  a closed circuit depression which patrols up and down off the W coast of Ireland through to Thu 24th, balancing the HP over the UK - though the HP is a bit weaker from time to time (Wed 16th, Mon 21st). Ex-hurricane makes its appearance well to the SW on Sun 20th as before but today's forecast has it moving only slowly in contrast to last couple of days - so expect further updates on that. 

GEFS - after a cool spell,very warm in S, then cooling down, average still above seasonal norm but a lot more uncertainty. Individual runs show a few big rainfall spikes in the S from 17th. Somewhat less warm and wetter in Scotland  (and less certain on both counts) with some very cold outliers later on(some of that Norwegian air failing to keep to its side of the N Sea?)

ECM - Similar to GFS but LP is placed further S, near Iberia on Fri 17th, and the ex-hurricane is also putting in an appearance then, a couple of days earlier.

Enjoy this week for what it is and next week for the fun of chart watching.

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Next week could see a couple of 30c days. Next Monday and Tuesday could get close to the date records of 31.1c and 30.6c respectively.

 

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Next week could see a couple of 30c days. Next Monday and Tuesday could get close to the date records of 31.1c and 30.6c respectively.

 

Would be lovely to see some heat and keep our early Autumn at bay which had been plaguing this summer since June bar few hot cloudy heatwaves we got.  I hope this heatwave will contain wall to wall sunshine like we had in May.