Would be lovely to see some heat and keep our early Autumn at bay which had been plaguing this summer since June bar few hot cloudy heatwaves we got.  I hope this heatwave will contain wall to wall sunshine like we had in May.  

Well the ECM 12z is another scorcher. Would likely gives us a fourth month in a row where 90f is reached.

---

brilliant. Just as I've put my bedroom fan away, I've got to get it back out again.

---

Jetstream mostly from W to Sun 13th with occasional hiccups sliding round to a more SW-ly flow before going into a rather unstable phase with loops enfolding the UK (i.e. running down to the S of UK before returning N) and breaking up again - repeated on Tue 15th , Sat 19th, Thu 24th. Small differences in the position of the loop dictate whether the jet is running from the N or the S over the UK so confidence for our weather is low.

GFS goes for W-lies this week, weakening and turning SWly Sun 13th (cf above) and throwing up a block of HP with S-lies by Tue 15th (though this is further E than yesterday's forecast). Trough follows before new HP over S Norway Fri 18th; after a confused few days, strong ridge of HP to Iceland with LP out to W Thu 24th. That ex-hurricane? sitting well to the SW and not going anywhere.

GEFS shows warm/very warm spell nailed on Fri 11th - Wed 16th in S descending back to norm or a bit below amid considerable uncertainty after 16th. Some rain around after that date with a few runs showing big spikes, dry until then. Scotland warms up more slowly (not until 13th)and has better defined clusters of rainfall spikes ca THu 17th and Wed 23rd.

ECM has nothing much to add (still 12z for THu 17th at time of posting)

 

 

 

 

---

Can someone please open a 'Winter Discussion' thread for Tally?

This thread's becoming so clogged one has to trawl back 3 or 4 posts to get to the lone MO-related post of the day (which is DEW's excellent daily summary)

---

Can someone please open a 'Winter Discussion' thread for Tally?

This thread's becoming so clogged one has to trawl back 3 or 4 posts to get to the lone MO-related post of the day (which is DEW's excellent daily summary)

 

I agree - and yes would be nice to have a winter discussion thread.

In the south it has felt like summer since the first day of lockdown on 23rd March. 

---

 

 

I agree - and yes would be nice to have a winter discussion thread.

In the south it has felt like summer since the first day of lockdown on 23rd March. 

Your wish is my command

---

16 dayer staying warm and dry (exc W/NW Scotland) for this week to Fri 18th, much cooler and wetter next week (exc SE England, and not exactly dry there,either)

GFS - W-ly for a bit turning SW with tropical air being brought up from SW Sun 13th by trough of LP off Ireland; warm spell just about hanging on in the E until Fri 18th by which time the LP centre is over SW Scotland.  On that day intense ex(?)-hurricane  975mb off New England gets caught up in W-ly flow of controlling LP near Greenland/Iceland and arrives Cornwall 1005mb Tue 22nd. then more W-lies alternating troughs and ridges. At the tail end of the forecast Sat 26th, a possible repeat with a new deep LP near Greenland dragging the remains of another hurricane across from the US East Coast. But that comes with a caveat about unpredictability of ex-hurricanes.

GEFS - Irregular rise to Very warm Tue 15th after which most runs back to near normby Tue 22nd but a lot of variationin how they get there, some quick, some slow. Some rain in S from Wed 16th, one or two runs with big totals. Similar temp profile further N but if anything with more variability; likewise rainfall but bigger totals and Scotland gets a bonus wet spell on Mon 13th.

ECM (still 12z after Tue 15th, I may update later) - warm and dry spell more prolonged across all UK Sun 13th to Fri 18th; the ex-hurricane shows up Sat 19th in mid-Atlantic as an independent feature, not dependent on the LP near Iceland which  is much weaker. UPDATE Last couple of days for the 0z run quite different from yesterday's 12z. Sat 19th, the ex-hurricane has headed for Greenland and an enormous northern block of HP with significant LP approaching from Brittany.

 

---

16 dayer staying warm and dry (exc W/NW Scotland) for this week to Fri 18th, much cooler and wetter next week (exc SE England, and not exactly dry there,either)

GFS - W-ly for a bit turning SW with tropical air being brought up from SW Sun 13th by trough of LP off Ireland; warm spell just about hanging on in the E until Fri 18th by which time the LP centre is over SW Scotland.  On that day intense ex(?)-hurricane  975mb off New England gets caught up in W-ly flow of controlling LP near Greenland/Iceland and arrives Cornwall 1005mb Tue 22nd. then more W-lies alternating troughs and ridges. At the tail end of the forecast Sat 26th, a possible repeat with a new deep LP near Greenland dragging the remains of another hurricane across from the US East Coast. But that comes with a caveat about unpredictability of ex-hurricanes.

GEFS - Irregular rise to Very warm Tue 15th after which most runs back to near normby Tue 22nd but a lot of variationin how they get there, some quick, some slow. Some rain in S from Wed 16th, one or two runs with big totals. Similar temp profile further N but if anything with more variability; likewise rainfall but bigger totals and Scotland gets a bonus wet spell on Mon 13th.

ECM (still 12z after Tue 15th, I may update later) - warm and dry spell more prolonged across all UK Sun 13th to Fri 18th; the ex-hurricane shows up Sat 19th in mid-Atlantic as an independent feature, not dependent on the LP near Iceland which  is much weaker. UPDATE Last couple of days for the 0z run quite different from yesterday's 12z. Sat 19th, the ex-hurricane has headed for Greenland and an enormous northern block of HP with significant LP approaching from Brittany.

 

 

 

Thanks, DEW - interesting MO, with the uncertainty brought by the ex-Hurricanes. Be nice to get a last hoorah of warmth... assuming it comes off

---

ECM and it's ensembles look very warm this morning. Looks like we could squeeze 30c again next week.

---

Arpege going for 31c on Monday.

 

---

I was just settling into Autumn mode and this bloody mini heatwave turns up. Irritating.

---

GFS - as predicted for a while, W-lies turning SW-ly and bringing in a hot spell early next week but now forecast to be short-lived; peak Tue 15th but LP to the SW develops and there is then the possibility of substantial rain coming to the south on a SE wind (that from BBC longer outlook last night).The LP moves in slowly but is centred in the Channel 1000mb Sat 19th with a long run of SE-lies between it and HP over Norway. Hew ridge of HP from the SW settles over Scotland 1030mb Thu 24th and sticks around with LP never far from the S.  

Ex-hurricanes Fri 18th and Sat 26th both running N to Greenland (the latter 950mb over Newfoundland, can do without that here) and not directly affecting UK on today's forecast, could be different tomorrow.

GEFS - peak temp (10C above norm) on Tue 15th descending to seasonal norm rather bumpily by Tue 22nd - a lot of uncertainty which gets worse after that date. Some rain around in S mostly Wed 16th - Sat 19th, also on isolated runs later. Scotland generally dryer but some runs nevertheless produce big spikes. N Scotland wetter to start with and less of a heatwave though still generally above norm and dryer later.

ECM (mostly yesterday's 12z) looks very like the GFS to Sun 20th though Friday's ex-hurricane less potent

---

CFS couldn’t be further from reality as usual:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

I was just settling into Autumn mode and this bloody mini heatwave turns up. Irritating.

Yes, it has prompted me to re-work one of Eric Morecambe's finest jokes: "All the right weather but not necessarily in the right order."

---

Not surprised to see summer weather in summer.

Will be interesting to see if things become more autumnal when autumn begins on 21 September.

---

Astonishing GEFS. You do wonder if the rules are being rewritten as we watch.

---

Astonishing GEFS. You do wonder if the rules are being rewritten as we watch.

Its out of control Brian.

---

Not just a SE thing, either - this is Liverpool's. A degree less hot and a little more rain in the mix (esp later) but a very similar pattern:

---

Quite impressive charts. This really does cap off the weirdest of summers.

On the near continent summer has never really gone away.

Macon in Burgundy should be settling into the low 20s with dwindling sunshine and autumn rains by now. Stats for the month so far:

Mean max: 26.9 (+5.0 above average)
Mean min: 13.4 (+1.9)
Rainfall: 0mm
Sunshine: 116 hours (over 10hrs per day).

But it’s only just getting started:

Maxes forecast for next 6 days: 30, 32, 36, 33, 33, 31. No rain forecast until at least next Saturday. Whole of North and Central France already in severe epochal drought.

---

Latest Arpege 30c for Monday 33c for Tuesday. Crazy for mid September.

 

---