If your weather is a function of the gulf stream, it's amazing you get ANY classic winters really.
The fact that 9 years ago I had the good fortune to live through the coldest December on record, by 1.1C(!) still astonishes me.

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I would say all time classic summers would include 1976,95,03 and 18. That's 5 in my lifetime! In terms of winters you'd possibly include 78/9 but really it would be 62/3 and 46/7 that stand out from the last century. Unfortunately I've not experienced even one if the marginal 78/9* is excluded. 

 

*I'd possibly put it into the classics but not the all time classics.

 

If we're talking all-time classics, then I wouldn't have 03 in there, and even 18 is questionable.

Very good summers, but 03 was a bit inconsistent, and for half the country at least, Aug 18 was distinctly average. 

Appreciate that from a localised perspective, certain 'very good' summers or winters can be considered local/regional classics (for many, the 09/10 winter was 'very good', with a few places having a classic, for instance) but for a summer or winter to be an all-time classic, the extreme conditions - IMHO - need to be experienced by a large majority of the country. 

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If we're talking all-time classics, then I wouldn't have 03 in there, and even 18 is questionable.

Very good summers, but 03 was a bit inconsistent, and for half the country at least, Aug 18 was distinctly average. 

Appreciate that from a localised perspective, certain 'very good' summers or winters can be considered local/regional classics (for many, the 09/10 winter was 'very good', with a few places having a classic, for instance) but for a summer or winter to be an all-time classic, the extreme conditions - IMHO - need to be experienced by a large majority of the country. 

With the exception of 1976 I don’t think any summer would fit those criteria. June 1995 was cool for most of the month. Likewise first part of June 1975. 2018 was the warmest summer on record for the UK and second or third warmest for CET I think, so hard to beat.

I was born in November 76 so that summer doesn’t count, and the all time classic summers in my lifetime were 1989, 1995 and 2018. 

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16-day summary - cooler weather moving steadily south from week 1 into week 2, but  rain now not forecast anywhere for both weeks except NW Scotland (wet in week 2)

GFS - LP near Biscay keeps a generally S-ly or SE-ly flow (apart from a brief incursion of cold air down the N Sea Thu 17th) through to Tue 22nd, during which time it merges with ex-hurricane Paulette. Back to W-lies for a few days before another ex-hurricane pumps up more warmth from the S and promotes HP over UK Sun 27th, again reverting to W-lies Wed 30th. This all looks a lot warmer than the 16-dayer.

GEFS - after current hot couple of days, drops back to warm  until Wed 23rd after which most runs on the cool side but with much uncertainty. Rainfall also likely to be frequent from the 23rd (the spike in the S shown yesterday for the 20th has been minimised and the MetO doesn't believe it anyway). Similar across the UK, though peaks and troughs somewhat flatter further N.

ECM - (12z - I'll update if I have time) similar to GFS to Tue 22nd after which not W-lies but a well-marked trough coming south over the UK - UPDATE - Trough not so well marked but not really a westerly - and two ex-hurricanes approaching from SW

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If we're talking all-time classics, then I wouldn't have 03 in there, and even 18 is questionable.

Very good summers, but 03 was a bit inconsistent, and for half the country at least, Aug 18 was distinctly average. 

Appreciate that from a localised perspective, certain 'very good' summers or winters can be considered local/regional classics (for many, the 09/10 winter was 'very good', with a few places having a classic, for instance) but for a summer or winter to be an all-time classic, the extreme conditions - IMHO - need to be experienced by a large majority of the country. 

notice duration of classic winters a lot shorter than classic summers ...63 was longest, 47 snowiest with best weather set ups.....never had a classic winter start in early November through until mid April ...the true apocalypse winter stuff of dreams 

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Jetstream - big cut-off loop in the next few days off Portugal (feeding a Medicane? - see that thread) while main stream runs across Iceland. Situation persists with cut-off getting weaker until about Wed 23rd when a new loop appears and swings across the UK in a rather fragmented way but the northerly course of the stream is restored by Sun 27th which however spins off a couple of cut-offs by Wed 30th , one in the Med and one mid-Atlantic

GFS - LP off Portugal absorbing ex-hurricane Paulette and staying there while HP runs in an arc from mid-Atlantic to Scotland to C Europe, until Wed 23rd when something more W-ly appears for the UK. By Sat 26th appearance of another ex-hurricane on Atlantic helps to push up a new HP over the UK which persists even after the ex-hurricane gets absorbs in the Alantic circulation ; finally the chart for Thu 1st looks remarkably like a repeat of today's.

GEFS - Temp stays above average to Wed 23rd (well above in S) when sudden drop to a little below average and continuing there (with some uncertainty) to Thu 1st, hints of warming up at the end. A little rain around from Wed 23rd with best chances about Sun 27th in the S but earlier in the N. 

ECM -like GFS to Wed 23rd, then much deeper trough across the UK rather than W-ly and LP centred NE England Thu 24th (would fit the temp profile in GEFS better than the GFS does).  The new ex-hurricane noted above does not appear.

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On GFS, a major feature has popped up for Scotland for the end of next week. Just one run but let’s see how modelling goes from here.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_240_2.png 

On GFS, a major feature has popped up for Scotland for the end of next week. Just one run but let’s see how modelling goes from here.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_240_2.png

Not so different from this morning's ECM

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Overall picture from 16-dayer is for a typical NW/SE gradient, cool and damp in the NW and warm and dry in the SE.

GFS - LP around Biscay, a combination of home grown Atlantic depression and decaying ex-hurricane Paulette, now in position with arc of HP around it reaching to N Scotland, lasting until Mon 21st. Generally W-lies follow but with quite a deep trough embedded Thu 24th (995 mb N England) before pressure rising to Tue 29th, when another LP is forecast in Biscay develops pushing up warmth from the S especially noted on Fri 2nd. (doesn't match the 16-day average well) Another ex(?)hurricane 970mb over Newfoundland Thu 24th doesn't appear  to affect UK. 

GEFS - drop-off from warm conditions Wed 23rd, mean of rather variable runs after that a little below seasonal norm, op & control both suggesting a probable warm up by Thu 1st (and in Scotland esp further N also a peak around Sat 26th). Not much rain, best chances around Thu 24th and/to Sat 26th. 

ECM - Similar to GFS though pressure slower to rise after Thu 24th (that bit of forecast still yesterday's 12z at time of posting) UPDATE Not merely slower to rise but today's 0z in fact forecasting a very deep depression (960mb W of Faeroes)and trough extending S-wards to UK by Sat 26th. This depression may contain remnants of the Newfoundland hurricane above which have been absorbed by and have revived an existing LP near Greenland.

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Big contrast in temperatures over the next few days between southern England and northern France under a similar upper air flow. England will be affected by the North Sea cooling effect, keeping temperatures in the low 20s. Meanwhile, away from the Channel coasts, much of northern France will be in the upper 20s and low 30s.

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Thank god, for the North Sea cooling effect.

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Interesting comparisons 2019 2020

 

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Interesting comparisons 2019 2020

 

 

Alot lower this year... interestingly was just coming to comment on the Autumn/Winter conditions ocurring to our north on the charts from next week onwards, proper autumn is about 600 miles away currently, and getting closer each week.   The northern atlantic to Iceland looks very active.

Wont be long before the storms rattle into the UK.  IT feels like perhaps this is happening earlier this year, which might be influencing lack of cold build up ad there fore the picture you see

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With the exception of 1976 I don’t think any summer would fit those criteria. June 1995 was cool for most of the month. Likewise first part of June 1975. 2018 was the warmest summer on record for the UK and second or third warmest for CET I think, so hard to beat.

I was born in November 76 so that summer doesn’t count, and the all time classic summers in my lifetime were 1989, 1995 and 2018. 

My recollection could be wrong here, but I seem to recall reading a couple of years ago that the summer of 2018 was the warmest on record in England and was the joint-warmest on record with 2003 (or was it 2006?) and 1976 for the UK as a whole.

1989 was in a lot of ways similar in nature to 2018: A very good June and July which were then followed by a less good August. 2006 was a bit like this as well IIRC.

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Jetstream well N of Uk to Mon 21st'also fragments in the Med in this time. It then develops a loop to the W of Ireland, running S in the Atlantic and N over the UK by Thu 24th . The loop then progresses E-wards Sun 27th leaving fragments running W-E across southern UK to Sat 3rd.

GFS - LP near the S this weekend surrounded by HP elsewhere, then W-lies developing and ending up with trough covering all Uk Fri 25th (at same time ex-hurricane Teddy is bashing Newfoundland) . It looks as if the energy that Teddy may inject into the Atlantic circulation will give rise to a disturbed period with several LP centres over the week following - Hebrides Mon 28th, Baltic Tue 29th, SW Ireland Thu 1st, mid Atlantic but heading this way at end of run Sat 3rd.

GEFS - From above average down to a similar amount below Wed 23rd and unlike yesterday staying there until slow recovery around Thu 1st; also rather more rain Fri 25th +/- a couple of days ( the S gets a splash this weekend too). A few big rainfall spikes here and there from time to time after that but nothing consistent

ECM - starts out like GFS but Thu 24th dartboard low W Ireland 980 mb moving across UK as defined feature next day, not just a broad trough

 

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If the latest GFS model output pans out, the change in weather from around September 23rd could be quite a shock to the system. At least for us sun baked southerners!

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I take it the jet stream is heading south then. Predicatable: this gorgeous weather couldn't go on forever for sure.

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I take it the jet stream is heading south then. Predicatable: this gorgeous weather couldn't go on forever for sure.

GFS have wanted for ages to bring this deepening low slap bang over the UK.....think the charts will moderate this somewhat.....wouldnt put away the garden furniture just yet especially in the south east......my worry are these deepening lows to out NW and huge highs to our SE...if the whole lot slips south 600 miles could be in a rut be very hard to shake out of....

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Ouch!

 

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Ouch!

 

What sort of daytime maxs are we looking at here.

 

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