What sort of daytime maxs are we looking at here.

 

Mid teens at best lower in the North.

I seem to remember the weather broke about the same time last year and it rained for 6 months, hopefully no repeat this year.

 

 

Mid teens at best lower in the North.

I seem to remember the weather broke about the same time last year and it rained for 6 months, hopefully no repeat this year.

 

I do hope so because it was around 22C on 19th Sept when I left to go to Dubai for 2 week with 30C min and 40C maxes to meet my fiancee and then came back on 3rd Oct with nasty early cold wet weather for 6 months.  I do hope to see warm up in early October when graph line go nearer as we did not have any warm October days for long time now.

Wetter in week 1 and notably cooler in week 2 in the averaged outlook - even early snow over the Alps 
http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

GFS - Lp near the S and HP everywhere else collapsing to W-lies Tue 22nd; depression covering UK by Fri 25th with N-ly gales to follow persisting 2 or 3 days; ridge of HP established Thu 1st and more general HP Sun 4th so warming up again later on

(Pressure over the N Atlantic much higher than yesterday in the second week - although ex-hurricane Teddy attacks Canadian Maritime as before ,it appears to interact much less with the N Atlantic than was forecast yesterday, just shows how the models struggle with hurricanes)

GEFS - temps on the slide, down to ca 7C below norm in most runs ca Sun 27th, recovering indecisively to norm ca Fri 2nd. More rain around esp Fri 25th but many runs continue wet despite promises of HP from GFS (Op & control remain mostly dry as shown on mainstream GFS, but perturbations offer damp possibilities). Scottish temps drop off more abruptly but recover a day or two earlier.

ECM looks similar but N'ly gales die out more quickly (but that timeframe is still 12z as I post, await updates)

Interesting to see the “Inverness” snow row is now up to 6 before the end of September:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gefs/gefsens850inverness0.png 

When I upgraded to the 0.5 deg GEFS in the summer I added in additional plots. The Cairngorm grid point should usually show a higher snow row count than Inverness.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx?location=Cairngorms#Cairngorms

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/ensemble-forecast.aspx?location=Cairngorms

Or from the GEFS chart viewer:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=cairngorms&charthour=006&chartname=ps_500hpa&chartregion=na-region&p=1&charttag=PS%20500hPa%20(GPDM)

Looking at the Oz ENS for Aberdeen:

With many runs showing uppers going down to -5 @ 850hpa - It really wouldn't surprise me if the tops of the Grampians and Cairngorms saw some early snowfall!?

Big change on the cards really Autumnal weather on the way 

A noticeable drop in temps also , the burner could well go on 

Big change on the cards really Autumnal weather on the way 

 

A noticeable drop in temps also , the burner could well go on 

[/quoteLovely old school chart.....hope we see charts like this in two months time...amplification has been quite strong past few months....]

---

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

GFS Op is quite extreme for the Central Highlands. Although the ensemble mean runs 3-4 degrees up on the numbers listed here, there is support for the early cold from several Ps. 

12 noon temps from 22nd Sep to 4th Oct inclusive go:

10   4   5   3   3   3   5   7   5   6   10  5   5

Several snow occurrences, with a biggie suggested for next Thursday, may be thin probabilities, but some low temperatures UK wide seem to be likely at least at the start of this period.

GFS Op is quite extreme for the Central Highlands. Although the ensemble mean runs 3-4 degrees up on the numbers listed here, there is support for the early cold from several Ps. 

12 noon temps from 22nd Sep to 4th Oct inclusive go:

10   4   5   3   3   3   5   7   5   6   10  5   5

Several snow occurrences, with a biggie suggested for next Thursday, may be thin probabilities, but some low temperatures UK wide seem to be likely at least at the start of this period.

Yes, it certainly looks like a bit of a cool down in the final week of the month. Nothing too unusual but a flip from warmer than average to colder than average will probably feel quite pronounced. 

Good stuff with the resolution increase Brian. It should come in handy in the winter.

Raging jetstream to the N progressing slowly south to Tue 22nd when knocked into a loop by influence of Teddy and enclosing the UK in LP Thu 24th. The loop moves E-wards only slowly so England is under a strong flow from NW on the rear side of the loop which continues though weakening to Sat 3rd. Signs of a new loop then developing so still unsettled.

GFS Current generally HP with LP to south disappears and deep LP approaches Thu 24th  moving E-wards slowly and leaving a legacy of N-ly gales. Another LP moving in from N Atlantic  to N Sea 990 mb Thu 1st . Brief rise of pressure Sat 3rd but more LP on Atlantic waiting to move in

GEFS  Like yesterday, temp drops sharply from mid week ca 7C below norm Sun 27th, recovering uncertainly to norm at 3rd (op & control agree  but plenty of variation in other runs) . Rain Thu/Fri 24th/25th, not entirely dry after that but no clear pattern  in S (Scotland more likely around Sat 3rd) Snow row figures for Inverness up to 7, even Glasgow gets a 1 on 28th Sep.

ECM (largely 12z) Not such a deep LP nor N-lies from the Arctic on 24th/25th, and quite settled by Mon 28th though with LP lurking near Iceland for later that week EDIT Much the same on today's 0z

Close to an ice day in the Scottish Highlands on Sunday 27th if GFS 00z is right. (Probably won't be this cold!) https://t.co/4nZiyFawPd) pic.twitter.com/ysPTlC2ws9

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) September 19, 2020

Weather does look very poor from about the 23rd for at least a week. Not good timing with Covid19 kicking off again as well.

Weather does look very poor from about the 23rd for at least a week. Not good timing with Covid19 kicking off again as well

Long social distancing queues outside for a bag of sugar ....wont be so much fun with no warm sunshine

---

Favourite snowstorm
Famous channel low
Dec 31st 1978
Hastings East Sussex
Foot of level snow severe drifting
Next day max temp -4 degrees Celsius

Weather does look very poor from about the 23rd for at least a week. Not good timing with Covid19 kicking off again as well.

 Well it depends what you expect really. September has been predominantly dry and warm and even with a marked cool down will probably end up another warmer than average month. I am quite looking forward to a bit of cooler air in the mornings as it has been t shirt weather for ages.

 As for the Covid -19 it has started to get worse earlier than i thought it might, so not right in the depths of Autumn /Winter.

Well it had to happen I guess, the change in the weather I mean. Law of averages and all that. I suppose you could say the same thing about the virus as well - that was always unavoidable too.

I suspect a few. ‘If only’ posts today.

Autumn definitely coming in for good

Can't complain really.

We have had a great summer - esp here in the SW been dry and warm since lockdown on 23rd March.

Meanwhile looks like the -5c isotherm is almost clearing the country by the end of next week into the weekend! It's rare to see -5c @850hpa in a September month...would you not agree!?