ECM 

GFS 

UKMO

Blocked throughout , can't last forever , can it ?

ECM 

GFS 

Blocked throughout , can't last forever , can it ?

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Probably until 1st Dec..🤔. But you have to say some decent synoptics around..GFS OP has quite a cold Europe at the end of its latest run..Here is to hope!

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Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL

Joe bustardie (apologies if I have got his name terribly wrong), did an analysis of cold Octobers and their outcomes, and it was 50:50. Some were cold and some were then mild. Which of course means that there is a good chance since the ratio of cold to mild winters is skewed 20:80.

Patterns may change - but the last blocked and cold October (was it 2009 or 2010.), preceded a cold winter, and plenty of snow.
Personally, I am grateful the Atlantic is not raging, and think this is a good omen, as the stat's of probability suggest. The albino effect will be greater this year with a lot of early higher latitude snow cover than for many years. Notable early alpine dump too.

Joe bustardie (apologies if I have got his name terribly wrong), did an analysis of cold Octobers and their outcomes, and it was 50:50. Some were cold and some were then mild. Which of course means that there is a good chance since the ratio of cold to mild winters is skewed 20:80.

Patterns may change - but the last blocked and cold October (was it 2009 or 2010.), preceded a cold winter, and plenty of snow.
Personally, I am grateful the Atlantic is not raging, and think this is a good omen, as the stat's of probability suggest. The albino effect will be greater this year with a lot of early higher latitude snow cover than for many years. Notable early alpine dump too.

In truth I think we have recently been here before with decent set ups in the Autumn, only to be blasted away by the Atlantic come December and stuck in that rut until Spring with early new year winter floods to boot.

Lol note the auto edit of his name - which I think was correct - begins with a B and follows astardi or similar.

There are a number of names out there. Some write good pieces which puts them ‘above the rest’, but I am sure in all cases they have been shot down by the weather which made fools out of them.

35 dayers continue to look chilly.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/gefs-35-day.aspx?loc=London

 

 

I think there was a lot of higher latitude blocking in Oct 2010...

 

 

The snow is still east of the Urals.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Joe bustardie (apologies if I have got his name terribly wrong), did an analysis of cold Octobers and their outcomes,

Joe Bast‍ardi concentrated purely on the US, so that wouldn't be that relevant here. The nearest we've come to it was the late Paul Bartlett, who back in the day did some research which showed, up to the 90s at least, that a warm, dry October followed by a cold, wet November was the thing to look for if you wanted a cold winter.

(The implication was that it was blocking setting up in a certain way which would bring us a cold winter via easterlies - which took the form of high pressure over or to the east of the UK, then the high migrated further north in November, funneling lows over us. It's all a bit moot now, of course, as we all know how rare easterlies are these days!)

Lol note the auto edit of his name - which I think was correct - begins with a B and follows astardi or similar.

Joe B used to do occasional 'Daily Express' style winter Artic blast ramp-up forecasts for Europe and the U.K. which mostly pretty much failed to live up to his hype.

 

Joe Bast‍ardi concentrated purely on the US, so that wouldn't be that relevant here. The nearest we've come to it was the late Paul Bartlett, who back in the day did some research which showed, up to the 90s at least, that a warm, dry October followed by a cold, wet November was the thing to look for if you wanted a cold winter.

(The implication was that it was blocking setting up in a certain way which would bring us a cold winter via easterlies - which took the form of high pressure over or to the east of the UK, then the high migrated further north in November, funneling lows over us. It's all a bit moot now, of course, as we all know how rare easterlies are these days!)

Maybe there is something to it but in my not worth a feck observations, a coolish October, especially one with frosts (which hasn't happened yet here anyway) tends to forewarn of a mild dampish winter with little frost; whereas very wet and stormy Octobers/Novembers often suggest a cooler winter ahead. All anecdotal of course but that is how my perspective has been shaped over the years. 

Cherry picking of course but interesting. 

Cherry picking of course but interesting. 

P17 was quite interesting too. 

Taken from the other side , but interesting I'd say 

The GFS 12z is evolving quite differently to the 06z: much more energy in the northern arm of the jet, diving south towards Scandi/NW Russia and the mid-Atlantic high being squeezed and slipping SE.  The low pressure system that slides SSE next Friday now drifts under the high and moves very slowly westwards, becoming a significant system in the Azores area by T+192

GFS out to Day 10 now and signs of a reasonably potent northerly developing.

GFS decent blocking and gives us a cold shot

GFS decent blocking and gives us a cold shot

Even a little brief wintriness in East Anglia as a trough drops south - JFF, as you would say.

Just be our luck if this Winter is full of Northern blocking and in the wrong place for us