I think there was a lot of higher latitude blocking in Oct 2010...

 

 

IIRC, there were consistent indications from the model output by early-mid November 2010 that something major was likely to develop. The sings were becoming increasingly evident from the model output we could access on this site and from what I recall, the MetO was beginning to mention the increasing possibility of the notable wintry spell developing before the end of that November by the time we reached the middle of that month.

If my memory serves me well, the MetO were quite a bit quicker in picking up the coming of the late November/December 2010 severe spell than they were in detecting the onset of the severe wintry spell which began in lead-up to Christmas 2009.

 

IIRC, there were consistent indications from the model output by early-mid November 2010 that something major was likely to develop. The sings were becoming increasingly evident from the model output we could access on this site and from what I recall, the MetO was beginning to mention the increasing possibility of the notable wintry spell developing before the end of that November by the time we reached the middle of that month.

If my memory serves me well, the MetO were quite a bit quicker in picking up the coming of the late November/December 2010 severe spell than they were in detecting the onset of the severe wintry spell which began in lead-up to Christmas 2009.

Being in the deep south my interest usually starts in mid-November.

Historically much has been made of the warm October/cold winter theory.

That isn't going to happen this October but it proves that you can read anything into October about the following winter and probably justify any position to suit a cold winter outcome.

If the current rather blocked and cool set up exists in a month then we may have to look at it more seriously 

Just be our luck if this Winter is full of Northern blocking and in the wrong place for us 

I was thinking of highlighting that the ECM run proves that even a negative NAO doesn't guarantee cold for the British Isles..... oh those annoying short waves, eh?

😉

18z GFS 168 ...............Some interesting charts around 

This is also setting up so nicely 

 

Being in the deep south my interest usually starts in mid-November.

Historically much has been made of the warm October/cold winter theory.

That isn't going to happen this October but it proves that you can read anything into October about the following winter and probably justify any position to suit a cold winter outcome.

If the current rather blocked and cool set up exists in a month then we may have to look at it more seriously 

 

Yes, it always amuses me how people try and argue that the weather we experience in one artificially created time period will result in a different weather type in another artifically created time period. "Warm Septembers are always followed by mild winters" etc...

The truth is, much research has been done on the matter, and it's always come out inconclusive or showing no correlation. If it was that easy, the weather would be nowhere near as interesting as it is.

Anyway with regards to the models, it's certainly looking very interesting. Sadly for cold lovers however, it's too early. It's a bit like getting the early signs of a perfect summer pattern in April. That said, it could be an indication as to where the atmosphere is going through the winter...

Cool and some really cold stuff spreading from the NE week 2, meeting Atlantic opposition and dumping rain over the UK that week  http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

GFS - LP settling over SE Wed 14th with weak ridge HP over Scotland not lasting as LP appears off W Ireland Sat 17th but travels S leaving again transient HP this time over all UK before deep LP from NW arrives N England 985mb Thu 22nd again moving S and leaving ridge of HP behind and more L{ from Atlantic threatened by Thu 29th

GEFS - Much as yesterday, cool, returning to normal Thu 19th (a bit below in Scotland) but without much confidence thereafter -a wide spread of temps on offer, indeed a 20C spread for some locations. Rain today and fairly frequent after 19th (Scotland from 21st)

ECM - similar to GFS up to Sat 17th but that LP having moved south returns northwards and intensifies by Thu 22nd so agreeing on LP regime then but with centre further W

 

Being in the deep south my interest usually starts in mid-November.

Historically much has been made of the warm October/cold winter theory.

That isn't going to happen this October but it proves that you can read anything into October about the following winter and probably justify any position to suit a cold winter outcome.

If the current rather blocked and cool set up exists in a month then we may have to look at it more seriously 

 

I am sure your friend in Cyprus continue to tell you it been very hot with over 40C bein recorded this month and the continuing hot weather in E Med give us chance here to be colder if this continue into end of November like 2010 when E Med had record high 20's temps days non-stop while here was very cold.   No change on the ensembles for bot here staying below average and above average in E Med, Cyprus.  

GFS is getting really keen on bringing unsettled weather in from the W / NW during the third week of October

Look familiar ??

Look familiar ??

looking very Octoberish

 

looking very Octoberish

And Novemberish - Decemberish - Januaryish and Februaryish 

Just saying 

Could be nothing, but maybe worth keeping an eye on this low pressure forecast in around 10 days time and how its modelled going forward. Moving up from the SW, for me it has a slight shade of Oct 87 about it at this stage.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_237_1.png

That would be the icing on the cake for 2020 should something similar to that does actually bear fruit.  

Chances are low Ian, especially as I have now mentioned it but saying that ECM are also toying with a storm around that time (can’t c&p link for some reason).

What’s this? Now an unsettled, mobile outlook when all the oracles were touting cool and blocked into November. Oh how fickle this subject is 😂😂

As we are only on October 12th Neil , bit early to write off any blocking 

Not that you were , just saying for the viewing public 

Certainly a marked shift on the 12z GEFS ensembles. It has trended less cold but more significantly the rainfall shows a big uptick. Very Octoberesque! 

Certainly a marked shift on the 12z GEFS ensembles. It has trended less cold but more significantly the rainfall shows a big uptick. Very Octoberesque! 

Below average temps if we look at the Met update , surely we cant get another Winter of dross like last year Dave ?

What’s this? Now an unsettled, mobile outlook when all the oracles were touting cool and blocked into November. Oh how fickle this subject is 😂😂

I went for a cool month in the CET comp; it was bound to flip milder after looking promising.